14 prospect-to-pro comps: Matches for Clingan, Risacher and others

Coming up with player comparisons for 2024 NBA draft prospects can be a useful exercise, if done responsibly. It’s easy to make hyperbolic claims about ceiling and potential, or harp on a player’s downside, but the eventual outcome for a career tends to be somewhere in the middle. Few players reach the high end of their perceived upside, and those who bust might wind up well below what modest expectations can be set.

The real utility in this exercise ahead of the two-day draft June 26-27 is understanding what a prospect’s role might look like down the line, what level of growth it might take for him to reach a great outcome, and how much risk there is if things don’t pan out the way one hopes. There are few true one-to-one comparisons that wind up being accurate, but this type of thought process can help in player evaluation from a conceptual standpoint, and in envisioning how a prospect’s profile might fit a certain team.

With that goal in mind, ESPN draft analyst Jeremy Woo chose high- and low-end comparisons for each prospect who is projected in the lottery in our most recent Top 100.

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Top 100 rank: No. 1 | Mock draft projection: No. 1 to Atlanta Hawks

High end: Khris Middleton with more defense

Low end: Trey Murphy III

Risacher brings a lot to the court as an athletic, 3-and-D wing with room to expand his game on both ends. While not likely to become a No. 1 option on offense, as he gets more comfortable playing off multiple dribbles and develops as a shooter, it’s easy to see him becoming a viable wing scorer a la Middleton, who has had an outstanding run in Milwaukee, including a title in 2021.

Risacher should also offer more defensively, where he has plus-lateral agility and should be switchable. There’s a high level of two-way upside here if one can get past the limited shot-creation ability. Floor-wise, provided Risacher continues to improve as a shooter, you can envision him functioning like Murphy currently does for New Orleans: bringing excellent size and athleticism coupled with quality floor-spacing and defense, but without creating a ton of offense for himself or taking many dribbles.

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Alex Sarr, PF/C, Perth (Australia)

Top 100 rank: No. 2 | Mock draft projection: No. 2 to Washington Wizards

High end: Jaren Jackson Jr.

Low end: Nic Claxton

The blueprint for Sarr’s role at the next level is something like Jackson, who gives Memphis high-quality spacing and elite paint protection while toggling between power forward and center. Sarr has a long way to go as a shooter to get to Jackson’s level, but that ceiling is within reach for him, with a huge, mobile frame at 7-foot-1 that makes him an excellent long-term prospect.

If he doesn’t develop at that rate, Sarr could still be a solid contributor along the lines of Claxton, who has fashioned himself into a useful defensive-minded role after five seasons with the Nets but hasn’t taken a major leap on the offensive end.

Top 100 rank: 3 | Mock draft projection: No. 7 to Portland Trail Blazers

High end: Rudy Gobert and late-career Brook Lopez

Low end: Walker Kessler

Clingan’s advocates around the NBA view him as a potential top-flight defensive center in the realm of Gobert, presuming he can stay healthy and continue to improve his body. His elite measurables, at 7-foot-3 in shoes with a nearly 7-foot-7 wingspan, give him a unique physical presence. Even if he doesn’t reach those heights on defense, Clingan projects to be a more versatile offensive player than Gobert, and if his 3-point shot develops, he could function somewhat like Lopez, who turned himself into a quality floor-spacer and top defensive center midway through his 16-year career.

At worst, it feels like Clingan should end up somewhere around where Kessler is right now (and granted, after just two seasons, his development is far from over), as a huge defensive big who can impact the game in drop coverage and protect the paint.

Top 100 rank: 4 | Mock draft projection: No. 3 to Houston Rockets

High end: Steve Nash

Low end: Payton Pritchard

Nash is certainly a lofty name to start with for Sheppard, but it reflects the optimism from scouts that has helped him boost his draft stock as a likely top-five pick. While his role at Kentucky didn’t let him play point guard full-time, the upside lies in Sheppard’s ability to make plays in transition, knock down shots and develop half-court creation.

His knack for making the right play and impressive shooting splits give him a chance to outkick expectations. Of course, it’s always hard to bank on a star-level outcome, but Sheppard should be able to find a role as a top bench player at worst thanks to his shooting and basketball IQ.

Top 100 rank: 5 | Mock draft projection: No. 5 to Detroit Pistons

High end: Chandler Parsons

Low end: Kyle Anderson

Buzelis is an interesting player to project at this point in his career, with a well-rounded base set of skills at his size (6-foot-10, 197 pounds). If he can make strides with his shooting and ball skills, he could go the route of a bigger wing like Parsons, and potentially offer more on the defensive end, where he has exhibited prowess blocking shots.

Buzelis fits a pretty safe mold as a skilled combo forward, and if he doesn’t make big strides as a scorer, he should still have a solid career as a rotation player because of his versatility, similar to what Anderson has carved out for himself.

Top 100 rank: 6 | Mock draft projection: No. 4 to San Antonio Spurs

High end: Andre Iguodala (Golden State version)

Low end: Justise Winslow

While Castle doesn’t have the same quick-twitch athleticism of early-career Iguodala, the role the latter played in Golden State as a multi-positional stopper and secondary playmaker lays a good blueprint for the type of value Castle could provide in the NBA. Castle hopes to play point guard full-time, and if that transition proves successful, that probably changes the parameters for comparison. If he remains in more of a versatile role, he could fall somewhere on this spectrum, with a name like Winslow illustrating some of the downside if he doesn’t make strides on the offensive end.

Top 100 rank: 7 | Mock draft projection: No. 6 to Charlotte Hornets

High end: Darius Garland

Low end: Bones Hyland

Dillingham’s creative playmaking and long-distance shooting has drawn comparisons to players such as Garland and Trae Young, but scouts acknowledge the wide range of outcomes for guards his size (6-foot-2, 164 pounds) in the NBA. If he makes a quick adjustment and proves capable of handling starting minutes, he has the shiftiness and scoring ability to be a potent scorer and playmaker.

If things go the other direction, Dillingham may wind up as more of a microwave option off the bench, which could lead to some longevity, but isn’t what teams are hoping for with a top-10 pick.

Top 100 rank: 8 | Mock draft projection: No. 9 to Memphis Grizzlies

High end: Bojan Bogdanovic

Low end: Max Strus

Knecht, 23, was a three-level scorer in college and has a chance to translate that into a long-term NBA scoring role. Finding the longevity of a similar type of scorer in Bogdanovic, who was also an older rookie after coming over from Europe, would be a terrific outcome and justify his likely status in the lottery.

If Knecht doesn’t score quite well enough to help anchor an NBA offense, he could still find success in a supporting role similar to what Strus has done over the past few seasons.

Nikola Topic, PG, Mega MIS (Adriatic League)

Top 100 rank: 9 | Mock draft projection: No. 10 to Utah Jazz

High end: Josh Giddey

Low end: Tomas Satoransky

Topic enters the league further along than Giddey in terms of on-ball prowess, having demonstrated that this season in Serbia. He might wind up somewhere along the same vein, as a jumbo playmaking guard with the size to fit into a variety of lineups.

While Topic is a good free throw shooter and highly efficient in the paint, he faces some of the same questions as Giddey did about his long-range shooting, but his feel for the game makes him a good bet to have a solid NBA career regardless.

Top 100 rank: 10 | Mock draft projection: No. 8 to San Antonio Spurs

High end: Jerami Grant and Kyle Kuzma

Low end: Maurice Harkless

While still at a very early stage of his development, the 18-year-old Salaun has demonstrated growth this season and has an intriguing mix of physical skills and two-way potential. He can be an effective scorer and floor-spacer at both forward spots, and leans toward a perimeter-oriented role despite having the size to defend bigs.

His flashes on both ends of the floor portend upside in the mold of a Grant or Kuzma. But there’s a ways to go here, and while he seems to be on a positive developmental trajectory, without leaps in the skill and feel departments, Salaun could end up as more of a back-end rotation player rather than a starter.

Top 100 rank: 11 | Mock draft projection: No. 11 to Chicago Bulls

High end: RJ Barrett

Low end: Josh Jackson

Holland has always been a productive player, earning him accolades in high school, but the questions about his game center on how his shooting, efficiency and decision-making will translate in the NBA. He’s a physically mature player who will have to find an edge in other ways, similar to the adjustment Barrett continues to face five seasons into his NBA career. Jackson was similarly viewed as a prospect with a high-floor skill set, but never made major strides offensively after landing in the NBA.

It’s probably lofty to expect a huge efficiency jump from Holland, but he’ll have to find the right balance of scoring and playmaking, and likely get used to not having the ball in his hands as much.

Top 100 rank: 12 | Mock draft projection: No. 14 to Portland Trail Blazers

High end: Otto Porter Jr.

Low end: Troy Brown Jr.

The inconsistent nature of Williams’ season in Boulder makes him a tricky player to project, but the long-term idea is that he can offer versatility on both sides of the floor at his size on the wing. He needs to get stronger and make significant strides as a shooter and ball handler, but the long-term concept could be something like Porter, who played more on the ball at Georgetown and needed multiple NBA seasons to become a reliable 3-point shooter.

If Williams can be consistent from deep, make plays when needed and defend across the perimeter at a high level, he can be an indispensable type of player long-term. But without becoming more consistent, adding strength and improving his skill level, the downside might be that he ends up more of a bench player.

Top 100 rank: 13 | Mock draft projection: No. 12 to Oklahoma City Thunder

High end: Marcus Smart

Low end: De’Anthony Melton

Carter’s tenacious defense, physical style and plus length at both guard spots call to mind players such as Smart and Melton. The variety of things he can do creates a pretty solid floor, and teams value his reliability and view him as a safe option. The upside lies in whether he can play point guard and run a team for long stretches like Smart, giving him extra lineup versatility.

If not, he could still succeed in a Melton-like role, as more of an off-ball guard who defends the point of attack, makes enough shots to space the floor adequately and can function as more of a secondary handler.

Top 100 rank: 14 | Mock draft projection: No. 13 to Sacramento Kings

High end: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Low end: Gary Trent Jr.

Walter profiles as more of a true two-guard due to his size (6-foot-5, 198 pounds), but has the makings of a prototypical off-ball wing who can knock down shots and defend his position well enough to stay on the floor. Most NBA scouts expect his 3-point shooting (34.6% on 6.3 attempts last season) to improve over time, and he’s shown the ability to make shots off movement. His plus length (6-foot-9.25 wingspan) helps him project out adequately on defense.

He’s not much of an on-ball creator yet, but should be able to provide enough spacing and potential to expand his skills. There’s a relatively safe pathway for him to help someone, but the upside might be more like that of a reliable 3-and-D wing such as Caldwell-Pope.