1st-Round NFL Draft Picks Who Could Struggle to Become Rookie Starters

Not every incoming NFL rookie will thrive in Year 1. It’s simply not feasible.

Individuals develop at a varying rates. Situations are vastly different. Some may not have what it takes to play at the professional level. As such, an instant return despite being a top pick isn’t always in the cards.

An old rule of thumb existed where organizations expected first-rounders to contribute in their first season, second-round picks in their second, etc. Today’s process is expedited, with expectations heaped on incoming talent.

Still, first-round picks are generally provided more leeway and opportunities to blossom. Some will start right away, while others will find their way into the starting lineup as their initial campaigns commence. Some may not crack the starting lineup immediately and that’s OK.

Eight specific rookies sit in a position where they shouldn’t be expected to start at any point during the 2024 season. Extenuating circumstances always exist, but things like injuries can’t be predicted.

There’s nothing wrong with these individuals not being starters this fall, but expectations should be tempered.

Every year, the same tired conversation occurs whether it’s better for a rookie quarterback to play immediately or sit on the bench and learn. The answer to this argument depends on the individual and his readiness.

Some young signal-callers can handle a professional huddle from the onset of their careers. Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix appear to slot into this particular group. Fellow rookies Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy make take a little longer to crack the lineup, though both will almost certainly start at some point during the upcoming season.

The Atlanta Falcons’ Michael Penix Jr. falls into an entirely different group. Even as this year’s eighth overall draft pick, his organization has no intention of playing him during the 2024 campaign.

Prior to his selection, Atlanta signed free-agent quarterback Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract. The 35-year-old is the starter, as long as he doesn’t experience any setbacks from last year’s torn Achilles tendon.

Whether t was a good selection or handled correctly are immaterial at this point. The Falcons didn’t want to find themselves in the same spot where the quarterback position hamstrung the entire team.

To address the concern, they signed the top available free-agent quarterback and selected a top-10 prospect. They hope to be set at the game’s most important position for the next decade or more.

Ultimately, the Falcons’ best-case scenario becomes Cousins coming back and playing every game this fall as the team experiences an upswing in success while Penix sits on the bench.

The New York Jets will be hoping this year’s 11th overall pick, Olu Fashanu, doesn’t find his way into the starting lineup this year.

The 21-year-old’s situation may be the best example of potential injuries playing a part in whether he sees the field for an extended time.

The Jets entered yet another offseason with the intention of upgrading their offensive line. General manager Joe Douglas initially did so with the free-agent signings of guard John Simpson and left tackle Tyron Smith. Gang Green also traded for right tackle Morgan Moses.

With center Joe Tippmann and guard Alijah Vera-Tucker—who is coming back from a season-ending ruptured Achilles tendon—already on the roster, the Jets’ starting five seemed set.

Even so, New York still used its top draft selection to choose the talented Fashanu, who was the class’ best pure pass-blocker. He’s the ultimate infusion of offensive-line talent when investing in an insurance.

If Smith and Moses are healthy, they’re going to start. They’re established veterans who can play their respective positions at a high level. But neither played every game last season. Smith has a particularly long history of injuries, to the point where the eight-time Pro Bowler hasn’t played in the more than 13 games since 2015.

In the best-case scenario, the Jets’ veteran bookends stay relatively healthy and a rookie doesn’t take over one spot.

Another possibility exists where Fashanu moves inside to guard since Vera-Tucker has an extensive injury history. The rookie will cross-train at multiple positions, but he’s a future starting tackle.

The Indianapolis Colts tend to be conservative in how they operate.

To be fair, the organization was more than ready to push quarterback Anthony Richardson to the moon upon his arrival to professional football. But he’s a rare physical talent.

In this year’s class, second-round wide receiver Adonai Mitchell is generating the most buzz as the prospect expected to create the greatest impact.

Whereas Laitau Latu’s role almost feels defined before he takes an official snap.

As general manager Chris Ballard said after Latu’s selection with the 15th overall pick: “We got the best f–king rusher in the draft.”

With that moment, the quote can serve as a double-edged sword. Yes, Latu was the best pure pass-rusher in the class and the first defender drafted, but he probably won’t be an every-down player in his first season.

Instead, the Colts may primarily use him as a sub-package passer when they already have Kwity Paye, Dayo Odeyingbo, Samson Ebukam and Tyquan Lewis on the roster. Paye and Odeyingbo are bigger and more physical edge-setters, while Ebukam is coming off a career year with 9.5 sacks.

In fact, the Colts set a team record last season with 51 total sacks. Latu’s presence adds to a team strength. By doing so, he isn’t necessarily needed to immediately become a major contributor. He can be a rotational piece to capitalize on what he does best.

The Colts defense will then be able to come at opposing quarterbacks in waves and allow coordinator Gus Bradley to play his conservative coverages on the back end.

A new coaching staff brings different systems, philosophies and players into the fold.

Pete Carroll is no longer the head coach of the Seattle Seahawks after serving in the role for the past 14 seasons. He was dismissed after last season but stepped into a front-office position.

Mike Macdonald is the now the man in charge of leading the Seahawks. Exactly how his defense will look, after previously serving as the coordinator for the Baltimore Ravens, has yet to be determined.

The defensive front provides an interesting mix of talent, with this year’s 16th overall pick, Byron Murphy II, lacking an obvious role.

The final point isn’t necessarily a bad thing. The Texas product was the first defensive tackle selected this year. His game is predicated on athleticism, quickness and ability to play in opposing backfields. His pass-rush grade ranked first among collegiate interior defenders since the start of the 2022 season, according to Pro Football Focus.

When looking at the composition of the Seahawks’ roster, their starting three-man front appears set. Leonard Williams and Dre’Mont Jones can bounce between base end and 3-technique. Jarran Reed and Johnathan Hankins are both experienced at holding the middle of the field and serving as space-eaters.

Murphy’s up-field explosiveness will get him on the field. How he’s utilized will be fascinating to watch, because he’s not likely to supplant either Williams or Jones in the starting lineup. Unless Macdonald wants to be more athletic at nose tackle, that’s not necessary an option, either.

The rookie does provide plenty of skill to play up and down the line of scrimmage and provide another presence in sub-packages.

The Cincinnati Bengals are a team that looks to draft for the future. While the previous sentence may come across as oxymoronic, they tend to be one step ahead of their needs.

Two years ago, the Bengals drafted three defensive backs, including two in the first two rounds, knowing Jessie Bates III, Vonn Bell and Eli Apple were free agents the following offseason.

They’ve done something similar at wide receiver, with three draft selections over the last two classes, knowing Tyler Boyd was a free agent—he signed with the Tennessee Titans this offseason—and Tee Higgins will play under the franchise tag during the upcoming campaign.

In this year’s draft, Cincinnati chose Amarius Mims with the 18th overall pick, even though it was set at offensive tackle in the short term.

With Orlando Brown Jr. on the blind side and Trent Brown joining the squad this offseason to handle the right, the Bengals feature the league’s biggest tackle tandem. They’re an experienced duo to help keep quarterback Joe Burrow upright.

However, Trent Brown signed a one-year deal, which will give Mims time an acclimation period after only eight starts at the collegiate level with Georgia.

Like the Browns, the 6’8″, 340-pounder is a physically imposing blocker. He has all the necessary tools to develop into a dominant force. He simply hasn’t played enough to be ready for an instant starting role.

The rookie can get plenty of reps during the offseason schedule and preseason, while possibly being worked into some heavy packages during the actual campaign.

The Bengals will then be more comfortable starting Mims a year from now.

The Miami Dolphins selected Chop Robinson with the 21st overall pick purely as a backup plan.

“Robinson is not expected to start if the Dolphins are fully healthy—not with Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb ahead of him,” ESPN’s Marcel Louis-Jacques wrote. “But with Phillips and Chubb still recovering from season-ending injuries, Miami will need its first-round pick to be ready to contribute to its pass-rush rotation sooner rather than later.”

The 21-year-old is a pure pass-rusher at this point. His 11.5 sacks over the last three seasons belie the fact that he’s lightning-quick off the edge with a first step that will give offensive tackles fits.

But the point still stands about the quality veterans ahead of the Penn State product on the depth chart.

Heavy investments were made in both Chubb and Phillips. Obviously, their recoveries from last year’s season-ending injuries will factor into how much playing time the rookie receives. It could be a lot considering Chubb is recovering a torn ACL and Phillips ruptured an Achilles tendon.

Even if one of these recoveries takes longer than expected, Robinson won’t necessarily be thrust into the starting the lineup. The Dolphins also signed veteran Shaquil Barrett this offseason. Barrett will operate on a one-year deal, but Miami understood the situation and the veteran’s contract is worth up to $7 million.

The 31-year-old is the short-term insurance plan, with the rookie being the developmental option for 2025 and beyond. But Robinson could become the eventual replacement for Phillips since the latter has a significant injury history.

The Philadelphia Eagles were getting old in the secondary and desperately needed to improve upon last year’s 31st-ranked pass defense.

General manager Howie Roseman addressed the group by bringing back C.J. Gardner-Johnson in free agency and with the organization’s first two picks in the 2024 draft.

Darius Slay and James Bradberry remain the squad’s starting outside cornerbacks, with both entering the upcoming season at 31 or older. Philadelphia did choose the class’ CB1 in Quinyon Mitchell with the 22nd overall pick.

Obviously, the 22-year-old will be worked into the rotation and specific sub-packages, but it’s unlikely he’ll usurp either starting role.

Interestingly, a possible move to the slot may not be in the cards for Mitchell. He’ll get some reps there throughout camp, but the team’s second-round pick, Cooper DeJean, may be earmarked for a nickel role.

The Iowa product, 21, told reporters last week:

“I’m just trying to take in and learn different things right now, inside and outside. I don’t have a problem with having a lot on my plate. I’m here to play football and learn football.

“The more positions I can learn I feel like it helps me out on the field when I’m at one of those positions. You know, knowing what those other positions are doing and where I can get my help.”

The combination of Mitchell and DeJean provides the Eagles with a much-needed infusion of youth and talent. How they’ll be deployed on a weekly basis has yet to be determined.

They’ll find their niches as the season progresses, but they’ll have to earn every rep they get.

As of now, both Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are a part of the San Francisco 49ers. Jauan Jennings is a critical component to Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Once Ricky Pearsall is thrown into the mix, he’s essentially the team’s fourth wide receiver.

This year’s No. 31 pick has traits that will help open up the offense. He brings a legitimate vertical presence with strong hands and stellar route-running. The Niners’ scheme is more often known for threatening teams horizontally, so he fits a specific niche while also providing flexibility to the offense.

The Florida product has the size and skill set to align at all three wide receiver spots. Shanahan will find ways to get him onto the field.

“He just plays the position really well,” the 49ers head coach said during minicamps. “Whether he was outside, inside, either receiver, all three of the positions, he can separate down the field, he can separate underneath. He’s got really good hands, extremely smart, very well-developed.”

The Niners aren’t a heavy 11 personnel squad, unlike most other offenses. That approach could change slightly with the depth the team now features among its wide receivers.

Still, Aiyuk and Samuel are difference-makers. Jennings is a legitimate physical presence. Furthermore, Shanahan’s demands for his scheme are significant.

Pearsall has the ability to do some things this fall, but the pick itself was likely made with the future in mind, considering Aiyuk is slated to enter free agency after this season and Jennings will only have one more year remaining on his current deal.