2024 NFL season: Most likely to win first Super Bowl? Ranking 12 teams that lack Lombardi Trophy

Eventually, the 2024 Browns should have their core in place, but right now, a big chunk of key players are still working their way back from injury. And that core does include Deshaun Watson, the Browns’ $46 million-per-year QB who faces his highest-pressure season to date.

If Watson proves to be healthy following shoulder surgery and can improve on what we’ve seen from him in Cleveland so far, the Browns will have a shot. Last season, they went 9-3 in games started by Watson and Joe Flacco (including the postseason loss at Houston) and 2-4 in all other games. The Browns’ top-ranked defense kept them in most games, but even that elite unit needs more help.

The Browns landed Jerry Jeudy to round out what should be an able group of pass catchers. Nick Chubb and Jerome Ford are back to fuel the ground game, although Chubb’s working his way back from another serious knee injury. Also rehabbing: parts of an offensive line that could range anywhere from very good to below average, depending on its eventual health.

Backed by such a good defense, the Browns’ offense must be capable, at the very least, with moments of explosiveness and some measure of consistency. That’s it. We don’t expect greatness, just competency. Averaging more than two turnovers per game just won’t cut it.

Led by reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett, Za’Darius Smith, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Denzel Ward and others, this might be the best D in the NFL again. There were a handful of games where this unit was up against it, but the biggest problem often came down to possessions. The Browns were minus-11 in turnover ratio, counting the playoffs, and allowed seven defensive TDs. 

There’s also the matter of the schedule, which opens and closes with stretches of four roadies in six-game spans and includes some wicked AFC North opponents in between. But the bottom line is that Cleveland’s Super Bowl chances, assuming the defense carries over from last year, boil down to what strides Watson and the offense can make.