3 potential adjustments before Game 2 of NBA Finals

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After a dominant win in Game 1, can Boston extend its lead or will Dallas force a series tie in Sunday’s pivotal matchup?

Here are 3 potential adjustments ahead of Game 2 of the 2024 NBA Finals (8 p.m. ET, ABC).

1. More ball movement and assist opportunities

With two of the best isolation players in the game, the Mavericks have never ranked high in passes per game – 259.4 (29th of 30) in the regular season and 251.1 (14th out of 16) entering the NBA Finals.

However, the Mavs only made 203 total passes in Game 1, leaving Kyrie Irving and coach Jason Kidd preaching for more ball movement in Game 2.

• Kyrie: “It’s uncharacteristic for us to have only nine assists. The ball has got to move a little bit more.”
• Kidd: “We’ve got to move the ball. The ball just stuck too much. And we’ll be better in Game 2.”

The Mavs’ nine assists – their fewest in over two years (May 10, 2022) – goes beyond just missing shots. Dallas had only 25 potential assists (passes that result in an assist when the shot is made), nearly 15 fewer than their season average (39.8, tied with Boston for 7^th in the league).

Part of this is due to Boston’s defense, which is not blitzing pick-and-rolls to force the ball out of Luka Doncic and Irving’s hands, and setting up a 4-on-3 on the back end to create open looks for shooters.

The Celtics mixed up their defense, but relied heavily on switching, making 31 on-ball switches in Game 1 with mixed results. Doncic and Irving looked to score whenever they were matched up with Al Horford or Kristaps Porzingis.

• Doncic & Irving vs. Horford: 6 points, 3-for-13 (23.1%) FG, 0-for-4 3P, 1 assist, 2 blocks
• Doncic & Irving vs. Porzingis: 15 points, 6-for-10 (60%) FG, 3-for-5 (60%) 3P, 0 assists, 1 turnover

Rather than looking to constantly score on these switches, Doncic and Irving can look for drive opportunities, beating the big off the dribble, getting into the paint to force help and bring more kickouts for open shots – and more assist opportunities.

• In Game 1, the Mavs shot 29 times on their drives compared to just 14 passes
• During the regular season, the Mavs averaged 22.4 shots off drives and 17.6 passes

2. Take advantage of open looks

While the Mavericks do need to increase their ball movement and assist chances, they also need to take advantage of them by knocking down open shots – something they struggled with in the series opener.

3-point shooting on open/wide-open looks (closest defender 4+ feet away)

• Boston: 14-for-35 (40%) in Game 1, 13.2-for-33.8 (39.1) entering Finals
• Dallas: 6-for-24 (25%) in Game 1, 10.8-for-29.3 (36.9%) entering Finals

While Boston was right on par with its open shooting in Game 1 compared to its first three rounds, the Mavs were five short in both makes and attempts and their shooting percentage dropped by nearly 12%.

It can be simple: the team that makes open shots, wins.

• Kidd: “I thought he had great looks …they just didn’t go down for Kai or most of the team, and hopefully we get those same shots in Game 2 and we can be better.”
• Irving: “I have not had the best games offensively this playoff run but we have been able to get stops, timely stops and been able to pick each other up on the offensive end.”

Irving missed all five of his 3-point attempts in Game 1, including three wide-open looks – closest defender 6+ feet away.

3. Should Boston start Porzingis?

The Celtics could not have asked for a better return game from a 38-day absence than what Kristaps Porzingis provided in Game 1.

Porzingis took the court to warm up pregame where he drew loud cheers from the Boston faithful. The game began with Porzingis on the bench, until his name was called with 7:17 left in the opening quarter.

Another huge ovation was followed by Porzingis’ brilliant start to the game – 11 points on 4-for-5 shooting, with rebounds and two blocks. And a 37-20 Celtics lead with the crowd in a frenzy.

That same ‘welcome back’ energy won’t be the same for Game 2 if Mazzulla decides to stick with his current rotation with Al Horford in the starting lineup. But, it’s understandable not to mess with a lineup that is currently working.

One argument for Porzingis starting is the play of Boston’s most common starting five all season long – Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Derrick White and Porzingis. That group has an 18.5 net rating (score differential per 100 possessions), which ranks first out of all playoff lineups that have shared the court for 60+ minutes.

Fast starts have been important to both teams all postseason.

• Dallas: 8-1 when winning the 1^st quarter; 4-5 when tied or losing the 1^st quarter
• Boston: 11-0 when winning the 1^st quarter; 2-2 when tied or losing the 1^st quarter

Boston won the first quarter in Game 1 by 17 points (37-20) and won the final three quarters by a total of one point (70-69).

Can Porzingis be instant offense and defense off the bench like he was in Game 1? Or should the Celtics consider putting him back with the starting lineup that helped them win 64 games this season?

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