Up to 53,000 new dwellings needed per year – ESRI

As the Government grapples with the ongoing housing crisis, a new report from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) shows 35,000 to 53,000 new dwellings will be needed annually based on projected population growth scenarios.

The report looks at forecasts for population levels and related housing requirements using census and research data, as well as various forecasts on international migration patterns.

The research was funded by the Department of Housing and Local Government and does not consider current housing shortages.

It looks at 12 different scenarios for population growth in Ireland over the coming years.

In what it refers to as the “baseline” scenario, in which the population is expected to increase by 516,000 by 2030, housing demand in the period 2023-2030 ranges from 38,000 to 50,000 units per year.

International migration the ‘key driver’ to population growth

The authors of the report said international migration is the key driver of population growth in Ireland and in a low migration scenario, that estimate would fall to between 35,000 to 47,000 units per year.

In the event of high migration to Ireland it increases from 41,000 to 53,000 dwellings per year.

In a high international migration scenario the population would grow by an average of 1.2% per year reaching 6.3 million by 2040.

Averaged out over all 12 scenarios considered by the researchers, housing demand is projected to be around 44,000 per year from 2023-2030, and around 40,000 per year over the 2030-2040 period.

That compares with the Government’s Housing for All targets of 33,000 homes per annum between 2022 and 2030.

Dublin, Mid East to see higher population growth

Adele Bergin, ESRI Associate Reseach Professor and one of the report’s authors, said: “Housing demand, both now and in the future, has significant implications for housing policy in terms of the number of housing units required and the areas they are needed.

“Our research shows that on average, across a range of scenarios, around 44,000 new units a year are necessary to keep with population growth.”

The report said population growth is anticipated in all regions, but comparatively higher growth will be concentrated in Dublin and the Mid East.

Some 46% of all housing demand over the 2023-2030 period will be in the Dublin region and in Cork city and county.

In May, the Government published the Housing Commission report, which found that Ireland has an underlying housing deficit of up to 256,000 homes.

That 200-page report contained 83 recommendations.