Thursday’s Racing Tips – Cracksking can crack the bookies at Kempton

It was a below-par day yesterday with only one selection winning from four.

Thunder Run ran out an impressive winner on the day and handled the ground much better than The Reverend who should come on for the run next time out. Marley Park was denied a clear run in the straight after getting stuck behind a few horses. I don’t think he would have won the race even with a clear passage and he was ultimately disappointing at a track he normally runs well at.

Both of Rizzel’s fancies were very underwhelming. There was a very big drift on the Aidan O’Brien horse, who had an awful head carriage and was virtually pulled up by Ryan Moore. My Delilah at Bath broke slow from the gates, and despite having such a low weight against her rivals, she was outclassed and couldn’t land a glove on the field.

Cairnzy’s Tips

Cracksking 13/8 – Kempton 7.35

My main fancy of the day comes from at the evening meeting at Kempton.

I was initially tempted to go back on my word on ‘never backing The Goat again’. He finished second on his most recent outing, showing signs of a possible return to form. The horse has cost me enough money this year and I’ll stick to my word and leave him alone. Watch him bolt up by 5L and laugh in my face, it’s written in the stars!

Anyway, onto my selection for the race!

I think the market leader Cracksking is worth siding with in this race. He is still lightly raced at the age of 4, having only run nine times during his race career. He holds a pretty impressive strike rate when running on the AW, operating at a 50% strike rate, winning twice and placing twice in four runs on the surface.

He’s been mainly campaigned over 1m2f, however the step up to 1m4f I feel is more his sort of trip. His most recent outing was over this same C&D which saw him beat The Goat by a length and a quarter. I was impressed with how Cracksking picked up in the final furlong or so and he looked like a horse who had a bit in hand that day. He is up 5lb for that success, but given Cracksing is still an unexposed horse over 1m4, I don’t feel it will be enough to stop him going in again.

Salamanca City 7/4 – Yarmouth 4.30

My last selection of the day is Salamanca City, like my first selection, is also trained by James Fanshawe.

Salamanca City has been knocking at the door of late, and the application of a hood has seemingly sparked her back into life. She ran her best two runs to date, placing in handicap races at Leicester and Yarmouth. She contests here over the same C&D as two runs ago and she shouldn’t need to improve much to get of the mark.

Salamanca Bay improved from her third-placed effort at Leicester to finish second at Yarmouth on her most recent outing. She can probably count herself a tad unlucky on that occasion, bumping into Atlantic Gamble, a progressive-looking sort from the William Knight yard. She only went down by a length and a quarter in that race. The form of that second has received a boost with Atlantic Gamble winning again next time out. On that evidence, Salamanca City must come here with a huge chance and a similar or slightly improved effort should see her off the mark in what looks like a pretty weak race on paper.

Rizzel’s Tips

Mary’s Pride 10/1  – Tipperary 5.40 (Each-Way 5pl)

Low-level Irish racing, especially over the jumps is probably up there with being the most corrupt part of our sport, and more often than not you’ll see at least one gamble landed on every card, so it’s not normally a great place to have a bet, but I can’t get away from Mary’s Pride for this 80-109 handicap hurdle.

There has always been ability with Mary’s Pride, but we haven’t really seen it come out on many occasions, but last time out was a showcase of what he can do. He won on bumper debut, and winning a bumper race is not an easy task in Ireland, as there are many talented trainers who like to target those races, so winning a race like that shows he has always been a decent horse. Since then, his form has either been very good or the complete opposite, with no in-between. He has one win over hurdles which came off a mark of 100 in December 2022, and he had shown very little till last time out when finishing 2nd in a race which has turned out to be good for the level. The third-placed horse has won 2x since, the fourth has won once and finished second the time after and the fifth has won on their next start. Given his inconsistent nature, I’m more than happy to play him as an EW bet, but if he repeats his performance from last time out, he has to be going close.

Obviously, you’re going to encounter some potentially well-handicapped horses in these races. There are a few to mention, the first is the Peter Fahey-trained horse, Makfils who won with ease last time out. He has gone up 8lbs for that win, and that was his first win over hurdles in twenty attempts, so he’s hardly reliable.

When the bigger trainers have horses in this graded race they have to be respected. Gordon Elliott has two in this race, both are lightly raced and could be on decent marks, but based on what we’ve seen so far from them, they are hardly deemed as value at their current odds.

Pure Logic 5/2 – Tipperary 8.30

Shark Hanlon is a shrewd trainer, but his record in Ireland isn’t anywhere near as good as when he sends his horses over to the UK. However, his record when booking Patrick Mullins for bumper races is very good in comparison to everyone else he uses. Patrick has secured 7 wins from 41 rides for Shark Hanlon which is a 17% SR. Along with this, he has been placed in 12 further races. All of this makes a strong case for Pure Logic in this bumper race, which doesn’t appear to be a very strong race, based on what we’ve seen from those who have raced. Pure Logic wasn’t strongly fancied on bumper debut when ridden by Paddy Hanlon, but did finish as runner-up of twelve at odds of 22/1 and did run with plenty of promise.

Colin Bowe is a very well-regarded trainer in Ireland from the PTP background and he has a runner in today’s race. Colin is very cautious with the amount of horses he sends on official runs outside of PTPs and this one is the third runner of the season for him. She is going to be lively in the market due to the trainer and with her being an 18L winner on her PTP debut.

Out of the others, Alpha Zeta probably deserves a mention as she was a place behind Pure Logic when the pair were behind a Simon Munir and Isaac Suede horse on debut. She was 1.25L behind the Hanlon horse, which could be reversed, but with experience being gained on both sides and with the very positive booking of Patrick, I can’t see it happening.

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