Weather expert verdict on Ireland being hit by 33C sun blast and Met Éireann latest

Ireland is more likely than ever to see temperatures of 33C, according to a new study from experts at Maynooth University in Kildare.

The study says a temperature event of 33C in Dublin’s Phoenix Park went from being a 1 in 180-year event in 1942 to a 1 in 9-year event in 2020.

The study, which developed a new model to predict the frequency, magnitude and spatial extent of extreme summer temperature events in Ireland, also estimates that a temperature of more than 34 degrees Celsius, a value not yet recorded in Ireland, changed from a 1 in 1,600-year event to a 1 in 28-year event between 1942 and 2020.

The study was carried out by a team of researchers led by Prof Andrew Parnell and Dr Dáire Healy of the Hamilton Institute at Maynooth University, in collaboration with Prof Peter Thorne of MU’s ICARUS Climate Research Centre and Prof Jonathan Tawn of Lancaster University in the UK.

“We found that spatial heatwave events over thresholds that are critical for society have become much larger, having at least doubled in extent for 28 degree Celsius, with this change increasing at more extreme temperatures,” Dr Healy said.The findings were detailed in a recent paper ‘Inference for Extreme Spatial Temperature Events in a Changing Climate with Application to Ireland’ and were read to The Royal Statistical Society at a meeting on ‘Statistical Aspects of Climate Change’ held online on June 3, 2024.

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According to Prof Parnell: “We are often focused on average changes, and particularly focus on the Paris Climate Agreement of 1.5 degrees Celsius. What we have shown here is that the changes in extremes are much larger than the changes in the average, and are something we should be seriously concerned about.”

He said the findings underscored the urgency for societal adaptation to increasing extreme temperature events, which have profound implications for public health, agriculture, economic stability, and infrastructure resilience. The research team believe that the model’s ability to predict spatial patterns of extreme events offers a powerful tool for policymakers and stakeholders to mitigate risks and plan for future climate scenarios.

The model captures both location and temporal variations in extreme daily maximum temperatures using new mathematical techniques. Analysis by the research team identifies a significant change in the behaviour of extreme temperature events over time, which exceeds the observed changes in mean temperature levels over the same period.

Meanwhile, there is no sign of 33C temperatures in Met Éireann‘s latest forecast for Ireland.

They predict an unsettled end to the week, adding that “tonight [Wednesday] will be breezy with a mix of clear spells and scattered showers, the showers most frequent in the north and west. Lowest temperatures of 8 to 10 degrees in a moderate southwest wind, but winds will remain strong along coasts.

“A blustery day with a mix of sunshine and showers” is predicted for Thursday. Met Éireann adds that “cloud will increase in the southwest through the afternoon, bringing some light rain or drizzle here by early evening. Highest temperatures of 14 to 18 degrees in a moderate to fresh and gusty westerly wind, but winds will be strong at times along coasts and very strong along northern coasts.

“Cloudy with rain or drizzle in the south, turning heavy at times [on Thursday night]. Clearer with isolated showers elsewhere, mainly in Ulster. Lowest temperatures of 7 to 12 degrees with winds easing light southerly overnight.

“Rain will clear from southern areas during Friday morning and will be followed by scattered showers, some turning heavy. Highest temperatures of 14 to 17 degrees with a light to moderate southwest to west wind.

“Mostly dry with clear spells, although some showers will continue in the north and west. Lowest temperatures of 7 to 9 degrees with a light westerly wind,” according to Met Éireann.

Looking at the weekend, they say Saturday will be “a mostly dry morning with sunny spells, although there will be some showers in the north and west and these will extend to other areas through the afternoon and evening. Highest temperatures of 13 to 17 degrees with a light to moderate westerly wind.

“A mix of clear spells and scattered showers [Saturday night]. Lowest temperatures of 7 to 10 degrees with a light to moderate southwesterly wind.

“Sunny spells and scattered showers again on Sunday. Highest temperatures of 13 to 17 degrees in a light southwest to west wind.”