All-Ireland SHC: Treaty’s march on history to continue

“Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me…you can’t get fooled again.”

Former USA President George W Bush may have stumbled his way to an infamous gaffe back in September 2002 but you get the sentiment.

The quote came days after Kilkenny had beaten Clare to the Liam MacCarthy Cup and for Cork fans it may not have been an instantly notable season – their campaign ended in the qualifiers with a woeful showing against a Eugene Cloonan inspired Galway – but through the passing the time it maybe takes on more resonance.

For you see, from 1892 until that ’02 season, some 110 years, the Rebels sat alone atop the All-Ireland roll of honour.

Kilkenny would end that sole ownership by drawing level the following season and they are currently six ahead while Tipp’s three titles in that space of time compared to Cork’s two means they are within striking distance, just two behind.

What is clear is that when it comes to words on a page anyway, the big three of hurling very much still exists.

Back in 2002, as the Cody era really started to take hold with their second title in three years with another nine to come before he exited stage left, Limerick were not minnows, but they weren’t in the land of giants either.

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Sure, they sat fourth on the roll of honour – but 18 behind third-placed Tipp and just one ahead of Dublin and Wexford who had six titles apiece.

As we enter the 2024 season’s end game, the idea back then that it would be the Treaty County who would be on the verge of the greatest achievement in hurling history would have been viewed as preposterous.

Limerick didn’t win many championship games back then. If we were to take the period from current manager John Kiely’s retirement after 1996 to that ’02 Cats’ success, they won just three times across six seasons.

Now it’s different.

Kiely doesn’t seem to share too many traits with Bush – although they both like their golf – but there is one thing they do have in common and that’s the W.

In All-Ireland games since his appointment, Kiely’s record reads as follows:

LWWWWLWWWWWWWW.

If they can add two more Ws to the list by justifying their favouritism against first Cork in today’s semi-final and then old foes Clare, then Limerick – not one of the ‘big three’ – will be the first side to ever win five All-Irelands in a row and their status as the greatest team to ever play the sport will be rubber-stamped – and there’s already some ink in the chamber for that one.

Fool me once, though and all that…

Undoubtedly the greatest moment in this year’s championship came at an electrically charged Páirc Uí Chaoimh back in May when Limerick administered first aid to a Cork side gasping for breath.

After defeats to Waterford and Clare, the Rebels were staring into the abyss but were jerked away with 72:36 on the clock when Shane Kingston was felled by jockey – and promising hurler – Kyle Hayes leaving referee Sean Stack with no option but to award a penalty. Pa Horgan, with championship goal 27, did the rest and the Páirc had its first true breakout moment since its redevelopment.

Scars still linger from that night, the Limerick dressing room still carry the wounds. Pat Ryan’s dugout was laced with landmines – and any time Kiely or coach Paul Kinnerk crossed the barricades they were quickly sent back on their way.

The emotional motivation is there for the Treaty, but the best of the best find a way to control that aggression and marry it with the analytical side of things too.

And for those Limerick number crunchers, they’ll keep arriving back at one piece of information – puck-outs.

Cork scored 3-23 off puck-outs that night. Some 3-15 of that came off their own and 0-08 off Limerick’s. Of the 17 possessions won on long puck-outs, Cork scored 3-10.

For comparison, Limerick scored just 1-14 off puck-outs, 1-09 off their own. For more comparison, Tipperary had managed 0-10 from puck-outs in Limerick’s previous Munster game.

In short, Limerick were bullied in that middle sector and it’s inconceivable that they haven’t been working on a more aggressive strategy to disrupt Cork’s longer restarts.

It’s also pretty inconceivable that the Rebels will enjoy similar numbers, but what is achievable is a repeat of the three goals they managed when the sides met earlier in the season.

Goals are Cork’s currency with 27 scored in 11 games in league and championship this season. In fact it took until that 11th game – last time out against Dublin – for Cork to miss out on a green flag.

Of the six named forwards, only Declan Dalton is without a goal this season although a fractured metatarsal back in January means he hasn’t had close to full minutes.

Hat-trick machine Alan Connolly – three and counting – has 10 goals to his name and Horgan six. Between them they have contributed just shy of 60% of the team’s total but the spread is still good with 11 players managing three-pointers this season.

The loss of Barry Nash to a hamstring injury might suggest that the Limerick full-back line could be got at, but his replacement is four-time All-Star Sean Finn so maybe not.

That round-robin defeat to Cork, their poor Division 1 semi-final showing against Kilkenny back in March and just nine points in the first 52 minutes of their Munster opener against Clare raised suspicions that Limerick were perhaps losing a bit of their magic, but the manner of their Munster final win over the Banner quelled some of that enthusiasm amongst their rivals.

Seamus Flanagan – who nabbed a hat-trick against Cork in Munster – missed that provincial final through injury but comes in for young star Shane O’Brien who has moved from a teenager into his twenties in the weeks since. O’Brien wasn’t with Limerick last year when they were winning in Croke Park – although he did help Ardscoil Rís to the Croke Cup there last March – but he provides a brilliant option off the bench and adds another string to Limerick’s many attacking bows.

Kiely’s decision to keep him in reserve may also be a ploy to give their bench press more oomph.

In the early stages of Munster, Donnacha Ó Dalaigh was the first attacking sub brought on and he contributed 1-02 in his 43 minutes against Clare and Waterford respectively. In more recent games, he has been limited to the closing moments of games.

Adam English has scored in four of his five cameos but apart from those two – and O’Brien’s three scores against Waterford – the bench has only continued two points across five games. He may be inexperienced, but O’Brien’s introduction would be a real crowd-pleaser.

That’s should they need it. This is Limerick and this is Croke Park.

They’re starting with a dozen of the players that blitzed Cork by 16 points in the final three years ago – Mikey Casey, Cathal O’Neill and David Reidy the other trio – and they never look more comfortable in their own skin than when playing on Jones Road.

“Every year, Limerick come to Croke Park and don’t do much different, they just do it better,” Dónal Óg Cusack said on Friday.

Limerick may have been fooled once, but a second time? Not the new giants of the game.

Watch the All-Ireland Hurling Championship semi-final, Limerick v Cork (4pm on Sunday on RTÉ2), also available on RTÉ Player. Follow a live blog on rte.ie/sport and the RTÉ News app and listen to commentary on RTÉ Radio 1

Watch the All-Ireland Camogie Championship quarter-finals, Kilkenny v Dublin (12.30pm on Saturday on RTÉ One) and Galway v Waterford (1.30pm on Sunday on RTE2). Both games available on RTÉ Player

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