Jasmine Paolini beats Donna Vekic to reach Wimbledon final after knife-edge match tiebreak

Jasmine Paolini beat Donna Vekic 2-6, 6-4, 7-6(8) to reach her first Wimbledon final, coming through a 10-point match tiebreak that decided one of the most compelling and tense matches of the Championships so far.

Vekic breezed through the first set like it was a first-round match, not her first Grand Slam semifinal in 43 attempts. She won 91 per cent of points behind her first serve without facing a single break point, and broke Paolini twice.

Vekic arguably played even better tennis in the second set, winning more points on Paolini’s first serve, but she failed to continue her attack on the Italian’s second serve, her win percentage dropping from 71 per cent to 45 percent. Paolini took the second of two break points, having saved three on her own serve, and took the set 6-4.

The third set was captivating, compelling, and frequently excruciating, as both players reckoned with the pressure of the occasion in ways they had not in the first two. After facing two break points all match, Vekic faced five in the third, making a first serve on just one of them. Twice she led Paolini by a break, and twice she gave it straight back up, before both players saved break points again.

At 5-6, having missed three routine balls on Paolini’s serve, Vekic broke down in tears. She could easily have wilted, but instead played one of her best-constructed points of the match to save match point in her following service game, before holding to force the tiebreak.

When it came, Paolini won the first point with a net cord, but then double-faulted to give Vekic a 3-1 lead. Vekic then missed a mid-court forehand at 3-2, and the tiebreak remained on serve until 8-9, including a stunning cross-court backhand from Vekic to reach 7-7. With Paolini holding match point, Vekic pulled a forehand wide to give the Italian a second consecutive Grand Slam final.

She will play either No 4 seed Elena Rybakina or No 31 seed Barbora Krejcikova on Saturday.

‘All the familiar traits of Paolini’s triumphs of late’

Analysis from Matt Futterman

This was a match of complete contrast in styles and demeanours that never played to type. Paolini sometimes looked as if she could play for days, sunshine on her back; Vekic sometimes looked as if she couldn’t play one more point. But when the match came to be decided, they both played their games at a high level.

At first, Vekic appeared to have Paolini’s number. The aggression that other opponents have tried to use to overpower the diminutive Italian was working. Vekic was hitting hard and hitting her spots, and when she missed, she took some deep breaths to reset and went right back to hitting them again. But Paolini refused to pack it in, and Thursday’s eventual win over the Croatian had all the familiar traits of the Italian’s triumphs of late, starting with her walk onto the court with an opponent who is somewhere between six and 12 inches taller than she is.

The Paolini routines flowed from there, all built around a determined and tactical dismantling of a player seemingly with the greater physical advantage when it comes to what tennis asks of players. She can never have the biggest serve, so uses variation and placement to confuse opponents, to the extent that it is hard to read what her go-to-serve is under pressure. The set she lost mostly came from that not working as intended, hitting just 47 percent of first serves in, compared to a tournament average of 67 per cent.

The point that may keep Vekic awake at night came late in the second set, with Paolini serving at 15-15. Paolini scrambled back after a postage stamp lob and lifted another short, awkward ball into the court that came down from a great height. Vekic butchered the smash. The Italian’s ability to scramble in defence — along with reliably flattening out her forehand from above her shoulders into Vekic’s backhand corner in attack — reliably kept her in a match that, overall, was less on her racket than on that of her opponent.

In an instant she had gone from a golden opportunity to get a chance to serve out the match to fretting that she’d blown her best chance of the day.

What becomes abundantly clear from watching Paolini here at Wimbledon this is that at 28-years-old she has come up with answers for her shortcomings and weaknesses to the full extent of her powers. She has a Masters 1000 title on hard courts (in Dubai); a French Open final on clay; and now this SW19 final. The old tennis saying goes “control the controllables.” That’s exactly what she has done.

What did Jasmine Paolini say after the match?

On court: “I think these last months have been crazy for me.

“But I’m trying just to focus on what I have to do on court, just enjoying what I’m doing, because I love playing tennis. It’s amazing to be here, playing on this stadium. It’s a dream.”

What did Donna Vekic say after the match?

In her press conference: “I mean, I thought I was going to die in the third set. I had so much pain in my arm, in my leg. It was not easy out there, but I will recover.

“My team tells me that I can be proud of myself. It’s tough right now. It’s really tough.

“I was more crying because I had so much pain, I didn’t know how I could keep playing.

“For sure I will need to take couple of days to see everything. Yeah, I don’t know, it’s tough to be positive right now. It was so close. I had a lot of chances, yeah [tearing up]”

(Jordan Pettitt/Getty Images)