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Timeform ratings analysis | Five key performances including Giavellotto

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Timeform ratings analysis | Five key performances including Giavellotto

Tony McFadden provides Timeform ratings reaction to five key performances at Newmarket and Ascot in the last week.

Giavellotto (125 from 120)

Giavellotto had been a decisive winner of the Yorkshire Cup in May, posting a better performance than he had when winning the same race 12 months earlier, and he produced a high-class display in the Princess of Wales’s Stakes at Newmarket last week to confirm that he’s an improved performer as a five-year-old.

Giavellotto was burdened with a 3 lb penalty for his Yorkshire Cup success but he proved well up to the task, impressing with the pace he showed back at a mile and a half (he had been campaigned around a mile and three-quarters or further since early in his three-year-old campaign).

He readily asserted inside the final furlong and kept on strongly to score by three and a quarter lengths, earning a Timeform rating of 125 which suggests he’ll be a big player back in Group 1 company as he’s now rated only 3 lb behind Kyprios, who along with White Birch is Timeform’s highest-rated horse in Europe.

It’s also worth keeping in mind that Kyprios’ rating comes from the form he showed during a dominant campaign in 2022 and that his recent Gold Cup win at Royal Ascot was worth a Timeform performance rating of 125. Giavellotto would be a big threat should the pair meet in the Irish St Leger.

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Arabian Dusk, a 525,000 guineas purchase at the breeze-up sales, had to settle for minor honours on her first couple of outings as she was runner-up in a Doncaster maiden and then third in a listed race on the Newmarket July Course.

However, back at Newmarket on Friday, she took a big step forward to win the Group 2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes from a pair of fillies who had hit the frame in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Mountain Breeze, who was fourth at Royal Ascot, reversed Royal Ascot form with third-placed Heavens Gate, but went down by three-quarters of a length to the progressive Arabian Dusk who produced the best performance by a juvenile filly trained in Britain so far this season. However, that level is still some way shy of what Aidan O’Brien duo Bedtime Story (116p) and Fairy Godmother (112p) produced at Royal Ascot and they remain the standouts in the fillies’ division.

Ancient Truth (109p from 97p)

As with the fillies, the highest-rated juvenile colt is trained by Aidan O’Brien with Railway Stakes winner Henri Matisse (110p) holding that title. However, it’s tight at the top and Ancient Truth ran to a similar level when extending his unbeaten record to three in the Superlative Stakes.

We didn’t see the same fireworks as when City of Troy slammed his rivals by six and a half lengths last year to identify himself as a potentially exceptional juvenile, but Ancient Truth showed enough in a length-and-a-half victory to establish himself as a contender for top honours.

He was a fifth winner of the Superlative Stakes for Charlie Appleby in the last ten years and, like Quorto and Master of the Seas, is a son of Dubawi who landed the race in 2004. Quorto and Master of The Seas both ran to a slightly higher level than Ancient Truth but he won with a bit in hand and could have found extra had it been required.

Quddwah (122p from 119p)

Quddwah, a winner on both starts last season, had made a successful return in a strong edition of the listed Paradise Stakes at Ascot in May, beating Docklands and Maljoom who went on to finish second and third in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Quddwah had been forced to miss Royal Ascot after returning an unsatisfactory blood test, but the form of his Paradise Stakes success suggests he’d have been a big player in the Queen Anne and he backed up that impression with a cosy victory in the Summer Mile at Ascot on Saturday.

He didn’t need to improve much to win the Summer Mile but won with more in hand than the margin of half a length would suggest as he idled in front and gave the impression he could have pulled out more if required. He’s rated only 1 lb behind Queen Anne winner Charyn and, with the prospect of more to come, he looks capable of establishing himself as the pick of the older milers. More will be required against the three-year-olds Rosallion (126) and an on-song Notable Speech (125), however.

Mill Stream (122 from 118)

The three-year-olds dominated the market for the July Cup but Inisherin and Vandeek failed to meet expectations and the feeling is that this was a slightly substandard edition.

The average Timeform performance rating for a July Cup winner across the past ten years is a shade higher than 123 but Mill Stream has been rated 122 following his neck defeat of the mare Swingalong.

Mill Stream had finished a place behind Swingalong when third in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot but took a step forward to reverse that form and land a first Group 1 prize. He is just about the highest-rated sprinter in Britain but there’s very little to split a host of them.


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