RBC Canadian Open preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Canadian Open

3pts e.w. Corey Conners at 22/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Mackenzie Hughes at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Aaron Rai at 45/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

0.5pt e.w. Patrick Fishburn at 250/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

0.5pt e.w. Brandon Wu at 300/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

For a writer whose preferred style would most generously described as baroque, less generously as a sort of desperate fumble around a GCSE exam paper, but either way one whose tongue is usually in cheek, it’s extremely difficult to know how to begin this week’s preview of the Canadian Open.

In some ways it seems utterly incongruous to even mention Grayson Murray. In others, it seems wrong not to. Murray, winner of his second PGA Tour title as recently as January, took his own life last week. He leaves behind a fiancee and two parents who gave their blessing for the Charles Schwab Challenge to continue as planned.

There have been many tributes from those who knew him in some way. Most striking have been those of his peers, many of whom saw Murray’s journey up close. It seems clear he became popular, that he earned the respect of those who happened to do the same thing for a living.

Harry Higgs was one of them and spoke beautifully after winning his second Korn Ferry Tour event in succession.

Higgs said: “This golf stuff and the result it’s lovely, but it’s just not that meaningful. I would challenge everybody here – and I’m going to do this myself – each day, say something nice to someone you love. And also, make it a point to say something nice to somebody you do not even know. Everybody here could be a difference, the difference, brighten up somebody’s day. It could mean the world.”

This piece by Gary Williams was published on Monday. It is personal and deeply moving. I’d rather listen to and read things like this than feel compelled to join together words of tribute which don’t really mean much coming from a writer who didn’t know Murray, didn’t see his accomplishments off the course. But most of all, I believe strongly that people should respond to such events in the way they feel most comfortable and appropriate.

For Higgs and for Williams, their responses were raw and powerful and beautiful and sad. For what it’s worth, I recommend spending a few minutes watching and reading both of them. If you or anyone you know needs further support, please seek it.

*****

The RBC Canadian Open is one of those events which this year suffers for where it sits on the PGA Tour schedule. To come next week is the latest $20m purse, followed by the US Open, then another $20m purse. The field for this was never going to be particularly deep.

Its strength comes from the very top, where Rory McIlroy will bid for a third win in four appearances. That the first came here at Hamilton, that it came by a massive seven shots, helps keep him below the 4/1 mark with most bookmakers. McIlroy has already won twice as favourite this year, both at courses where he was a past champion, and often delivers when he’s expected to.

I don’t think the fact that he filed for divorce during the week of the PGA Championship has affected his price, and I don’t know the effect it will have on his performance. That’s just enough of a nagging doubt because otherwise there’s not a lot to hold against him, especially given that Hamilton has been softened by rain.

The course itself has undergone a restoration since last we were here, one aimed, correctly, at improving playability for the members and very much in line with Harry Colt’s original design. If that name sounds familiar, so it should: Colt designed Wentworth and Portrush and with Shane Lowry second, Graeme McDowell, Henrik Stenson and Danny Willett tied eighth, there was a heavy European presence here five years ago.

Four Europeans, Lowry included, take up prominent positions in the betting and each is respected, but they’re not what you’d call frequent winners and this seems an excellent chance for COREY CONNERS to make it back-to-back home champions, even if the same description would apply to him.

It might seem like it’s asking a bit much for another Canadian to win after Nick Taylor ended a drought which had lasted almost 70 years, but his peers might find it a bit easier now and for Conners, this looks to be his best opportunity so far.

Two years ago he was sixth in a renewal which saw McIlroy, Justin Thomas and Tony Finau duelling it out, Scottie Scheffler, Cam Smith and Matt Fitzpatrick having also been in the field, while last year we had a red-hot Tyrrell Hatton plus Fitzpatrick and Justin Rose adding a good deal more strength to the very top of the market.

Without all of those players yet with his price constant, now looks the time to back Conners. There’s no concern as to the course as he knows it well and struck the ball beautifully when narrowly missing the cut in 2019, and form-wise he’s finished 13th and 26th over his last two starts both in top-class company.

Having closed out the PGA Championship with back-to-back rounds of 67, and produced successive ball-striking performances of the very highest quality, the putter is likely to define the week for Conners, who is habitually shaky on the greens.

Perhaps these new ones might help and certainly there’s encouragement in the way he’s putted on bentgrass more recently, including over the weekend at Valhalla where he was about bang-on the field average during the final round. Something like that would make him competitive this week.

Above all else this is the weakest Canadian Open he’s played and therefore his best opportunity. I’m surprised he’s not alongside Tommy Fleetwood at 14-16/1.

Fleetwood also ended the PGA on the front foot and it probably helps him that this nomadic event has moved on from the scene of last year’s heartbreak. He would be a thoroughly deserving champion were he to gain compensation and rates an obvious danger along with Sahith Theegala, who keeps on improving and contended at Valhalla.

With Adam Hadwin’s clubs seemingly not yet with him, Nick Taylor’s form having dipped and Adam Svensson now less than half the price he was recommended at last week, MACKENZIE HUGHES is the other home player I want to be on at 40/1 generally.

Hughes has something about him that suggests to me he very much can win his national open and his record in it is good, including 14th place here in 2019. He’d missed the cut in 2012 but was a 21-year-old finding his way in the game and still managed to shoot a pair of 69s.

Shorter venues are definitely to his advantage, this one being a par 70 which will play to just over 7,000 yards. He’s gone close at River Highlands and PGA National, won the RSM Classic, been sixth in an Open, third in the Valspar, and in general these old-fashioned courses that don’t necessarily require monster hitting are preferred.

Form-wise he comes in off a missed cut at the PGA Championship, where monster hitting was very much part of the task, but had been playing well for some time beforehand, including when sixth in a better field at Quail Hollow. More solid off the tee than he has been at times, we’ll just need him to dial in his approach shots to be competitive given that his short-game is among the best in the field.

Hopefully he can do that at Hamilton, where he was born, and where he was in the mix for places throughout the week five years ago. Not that he needs further motivation but at 68th in the world, going close here could earn him a place in next week’s Memorial Tournament, where he has been sixth before, as well as a trip to the Open.

This is the second week in a row where the PGA Tour visits an old golf course which has been restored and there are certainly some aesthetic similarities with Colonial, but the best guide to the Canadian Open might just be the Canadian Open. St George’s and Oakdale, the last two venues, are similar in many ways.

That suggests it could be worth giving AARON RAI another chance, as he was 13th and third across these two renewals, ranking first in strokes-gained approach if you combine the two, and first from tee-to-green.

It took just a small improvement with the putter for Rai to contend in stronger company last year and that club really has been the only difference lately, potentially costing him a win at the Nelson (41st in putting), and certainly much higher finishing positions in the PGA and the Charles Schwab, where he ranked 65th and 71st.

Having been second in strokes-gained off-the-tee last week and produced another excellent tee-to-green display in general, the Englishman is right on top of his long-game and he’s certainly in better form than he was this time last year, when he’d missed four cuts in five and seldom threatened.

With two top-10s in his last six solo starts, Rai is beginning to knock on the door and I do like the fact that he was runner-up at Wentworth last year. In general, he’s been best on traditional courses like that one, having also been ninth in Detroit, 12th at Colonial, 12th at Southwind, and secured his first pro win at Fanling in Hong Kong.

Despite McIlroy’s domination in 2019, Hamilton appears a course where shorter, more positional golfers can certainly compete, and few have as much control over their ball as Rai does at the moment. I like his chances.

Going fishing at big prices

Eric Cole and Doug Ghim are just about the only ones who appealed from what you might call the middle of the market. Cole has seemingly gone off the boil but hit it well last week and was sixth in this event last year, so don’t be surprised if he’s more competitive, as Ghim will be if the putts drop.

I did wonder whether Davis Riley’s win might spur on his Zurich Classic partner, Nick Hardy, while Bud Cauley was placed here in 2012 and has shown enough since his latest comeback to suggest he could be competitive. Cauley might find this the most suitable course he’s played in 2024 but his reputation does keep a bit of a lid on his price.

Patton Kizzire has been on my radar all year and is playing well but I’m not sure these are optimal conditions for him. Nor are they for Zach Johnson given the rain, but the ex-Ryder Cup captain is adamant his game is close, his results back that up, and he was mid-pack here in 2019, his first Canadian Open start since 2006. Johnson wasn’t exactly tearing it up then either and, laugh all you like, I’d have chanced him under firm conditions.

The two darts I am happy throwing are directed at PATRICK FISHBURN and BRANDON WU.

Fishburn contended for the Zurich Classic alongside childhood friend Zac Blair and had earlier been 23rd in the Corales Puntacana, before finishing 20th thanks to an excellent ball-striking display in Myrtle Beach. That’s three good performances in his last four starts now.

This is a step up but he’s a Korn Ferry Tour graduate who looks to have found his feet and returning to Canada could be a positive, as he played the Mackenzie Tour here in 2018/19, signing off with a win on his most recent visit when he needed nothing less to earn KFT status.

CT Pan and Mark Hubbard are fellow graduates of that Canadian circuit who found themselves in the mix for this last year and Fishburn, who shot 66-66-68 after a slow start to climb 80-odd places last time out, may be capable of something similar under soft conditions which should suit.

It was with home advantage that he went closest to winning on the Korn Ferry Tour and a level of familiarity may again help, just an hour or so down the road from that win in the Canada Life Championship. Certainly, this powerful driver is hitting it well enough to be competitive at 200/1 and upwards.

Finally, I’m willing to chance a seemingly out of form BRANDON WU, who was ninth in last year’s Canadian Open amid a run of missed cuts albeit his form was generally better overall.

Wu though only missed out by a single shot at Colonial, as he had at Myrtle Beach before that, and between these two he played nicely to qualify for the US Open.

We saw Mac Meissner back up his excellent effort in that Dallas qualifier with his best finish of the year and Wu might not be far away from producing something similar, with his ball-striking of an eye-catchingly high quality of late.

He still won’t last long on the PGA Tour if he continues to putt as he has been as he isn’t a modern powerhouse like so many of his fellow college standouts, but Wu has so often in the past emerged from a slump on the greens with a big spike week, which is exactly what happened in this event last year.

Shorter courses certainly suit and he has the ability to make a mockery of prices around the 300/1 mark. To do so that putter is going to have to come to life, but the combination of a weak field and the subtle hints he’s been dropping make that a chance worth taking to small stakes.

Posted at 1200 BST on 28/05/24

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