It’s day one of the Betfred Derby Festival and Matt Brocklebank has a couple of handicap fancies on the Oaks card.
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Value Bet tips: Friday May 31
1pt win Orbaan in 2.35 Epsom at 12/1 (bet365) – 10/1 Betfair, Paddy Power
1pt win I Still Have Faith in 3.45 Epsom at 8/1 (General)
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No real shot in the Oaks
Ylang Ylang stands out a mile in Friday’s Betfred Oaks and being handed stall 12 is perfectly palatable for connections after their Fillies’ Mile winner ran such an encouraging comeback race – particularly with this event in mind – when beaten a length into fifth in the 1000 Guineas.
That form already looks reliable, with the Karl Burke fillies Fallen Angel and Darnation emerging from it to win Classics in Ireland and Germany respectively last weekend, and while it’s true that Ylang Ylang’s dam Shambolic didn’t fully see out a mile and a half, the fact she’s by Frankel leaves me with little doubt about her getting the Oaks trip. She’s two from two on soft ground, including that Group 1 victory in the autumn, so the forecast showers hold no fears either.
Nothing else in the field has come vaguely close to winning at the highest level – only two have tried – and it could be a case of the current 2/1 looking perfectly reasonable business come the off.
However, tipping at that sort of price doesn’t get me excited and I won’t be forcing a bet in the Classic for the sake of it, though a couple did intrigue me at the odds.
Firstly, one of the others with a bit of Group 1 experience to draw upon – Charlie Appleby’s Dance Sequence. She was eased in the final furlong after hanging her chance away in the 1000 Guineas but did finish just the one place behind subsequent Irish Guineas winner Fallen Angel, and she is probably worth another chance at some point having looked in need of middle-distances when narrowly beaten in the Nell Gwyn.
The softer the better for Dubawi filly Dance Sequence, you’d have thought, and the same surely applies to the twice-raced Treasure for trainer Ralph Beckett.
Beckett has three others in here, including the winners of recognised trials at Chester and Lingfield, so it’s significant he’s happy to run Treasure as well after she shaped well in fourth behind stablemate You Got To Me on what was pretty lively ground at Lingfield. She could take a giant step forward from that.
Whether she’s quite up to this level yet is the major issue – and it’s not like she’s a complete outsider at 14/1 generally – but she looked a stout stayer when winning her maiden in testing conditions at Nottingham in the autumn and those back-end maidens at Colwick Park have developed a habit of producing quality middle-distance performers, and even Classic winners (Golden Horn and Desert Crown spring to mind).
Door open for Orbaan…
I’ll take a pass on the Friday feature, and I can just about resist a dart on the admirable Hamish in the Coronation Cup, especially as he was 40/1 just before final declarations and is now no bigger than 10s.
Would anyone be shocked if he coped with conditions better than the others and finally opened his Group 1 account? I doubt it, but he still looks short enough now the market has reacted to the weather.
There are loads to consider in the Trust A Trader Handicap, including Finn’s Charm for last year’s winning connections and Koy Koy representing George Boughey and William Buick, who teamed up to win this race in 2022 (Totally Charming) and with last year’s third All The King’s Men.
They’re both well found in the market and I’d rather focus on David O’Meara’s three-strong team. I’d argue there is no better trainer when it comes to older, mile handicappers than O’Meara and Blue For You, Bopedro and ORBAAN all have enough going for them.
O’Meara does tend to be mob-handed in these races and you’ve got to face up to the fact that there’s a good chance you’re on the wrong one if cherry-picking, but I can’t let Orbaan go unbacked at double-figure odds despite him having to race from 1lb out of the handicap.
His strike-rate is fairly miserable and he’s not won a race since August 2022, but he did land Goodwood’s Golden Mile that summer too from a mark of 87 and, having still been rated 97 when an eye-catching fourth in this Epsom race 12 months ago, he’s come crashing all the way back down to a BHA rating of 84.
He’s obviously got to run off 85 in this line-up but there’s no escaping just how well treated he is if anything like back to form, and there have been encouraging signs this spring as he’s run decent races at Southwell and Ayr, especially when back on the turf just over a fortnight ago.
The seven furlongs on good ground just looked a bit too quick for him in Scotland but he was staying on late and going back up to a mile on an easier surface will definitely play to his strengths.
A single-figure draw (stall seven) looks handy enough, relative to his stable companions out in 10 and 16 at least, and I love the booking of Silvestre De Sousa, who is close to his minimum weight for this and actually won on the selection a couple of times as a three-year-old during his days with Andre Fabre in France.
Well backed, but I still want him on side
The Betfred Nifty 50 Handicap is another enticing betting heat and I was dead impressed with Bolster when making a winning return at Pontefract. The fact Clifford Lee appears to prefer Newmarket winner Liberty Lane probably says something but I doubt that will have been an easy decision and it’s not hard to see both of them competing in Group races (with cut in the ground) by the end of the season.
Away from the rather more obvious, King’s Code just bumped into another Sheikh Obaid handicap snip (Botanical) at York the other week, although another 2lb rise won’t do his chances much good.
Mysterious Love could be dangerous at a price if switched back to prominent tactics and allowed a soft lead but that looks highly unlikely and I’m hoping the filly is kept company by Killybegs Warrior, Paradias and Bolster, which may help set the race up for the closers.
On genuinely decent ground I’d have been quite sweet on Derry Lad but he doesn’t seem to find much off the bridle on an easier surface and as it is I STILL HAVE FAITH looks the one to be on for in-form trainer Ben Brookhouse.
This horse was really progressive in 2023 and is arguably best known for landing a bit of a punt under Tom Scudamore in the ‘Legends’ race at Doncaster’s St Leger meeting in September.
However, he’d won a couple of handicaps earlier in the summer and added another to his tally straight on the back of the Town Moor triumph, when defying a mark of 76 in cosy fashion under Fern O’Brien at Newmarket.
He wasn’t done with there either as he then won a juvenile hurdle at Wetherby in October before being put in his place at Cheltenham the following month, after which he was given a well-earned break.
This month’s reappearance effort at Nottingham showed there was still plenty to work with as he travelled stylishly into contention from the back before just going down narrowly to the race-fit Spirit Genie, who has since won again off 3lb higher at Chester.
I Still Have Faith has been nudged up another 2lb too but it’s hard to quite know where the ceiling of his ability will lie and going back up to a mile and a quarter here looks certain to suit.
Kieran O’Neill is a good go-to lightweight jockey and has enjoyed some success in valuable handicaps at this meeting over the years so if he can judge it well enough from off the pace, I think this horse should emerge with a major chance.
Published at 1600 BST on 30/05/24
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