Is Kristaps Porzingis On Track To Return For NBA Finals?

It’s now been 32 days since Kristaps Porzingis last suited up for the Boston Celtics. By the time Game 1 of the NBA Finals tips off, 38 days will have passed since he limped off the floor in Miami with a right calf strain during Game 4 of the first round.

Every time Boston’s path to the Finals is mentioned, it’s to diminish their playoff record because of the injured teams they faced. Rarely does it get acknowledged that Porzingis, their starting center making nearly $30 million this season, has missed 70% of the playoff action.

The reason it hasn’t been a significant storyline is obvious. It hasn’t held them back. Not one bit.

Without him on the floor during this postseason run, Boston has still performed like championship favorites. They have a 121 offensive rating and 108.8 defensive rating in those minutes, outscoring teams by 12.2 points per 100 possessions.

Despite the booming success, however, the Celtics aren’t blind to the fact their Finals competition will be much different and more challenging to overcome. The Dallas Mavericks present a handful of problems the East competitors couldn’t dream to match.

While most people will point to the Mavericks’ offense and the stress Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving will induce through pick-and-roll actions, it’s actually Dallas’ physical defense and crisp weakside rotations that lifted them to this stage.

Battling against a defense as tied together as the Mavs look right now, Boston needs as many offensive weapons — and counters — as possible.

Porzingis has long been the Death Star for Boston’s offensive formula, giving opponents a true ‘pick your poison’ scenario when he’s screening for one of their wings. Switch the action, and it’s the 7’3” Porzingis with a mismatch he’ll abuse in the post. Briefly put two on the ball, and it’s Tatum or Brown quickly dishing to their big man at the top of the arc, where he typically bombs threes and leaves opposing coaches in peril.

On Friday, Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla provided a brief update on Porzingis’ status after his team went through practice.

“He’s getting better,” Mazzulla said. “He’s out there shooting and went through a couple of drills in practice. So, he’s progressing well and we’re feeling confident with where he’s at right now.”

When asked if his confidence translated to a return timetable for Game 1, Mazzulla didn’t take the bait.

“Confident with where he’s at on … whatever day today is,” he added.

The Celtics need Porzingis in this matchup in order to win the title. That’s why it was imperative they gave him adequate time to heal.

We saw the benefit of Boston having a starting-caliber big, Al Horford, ready to fill in when necessary. Horford went from playing 23.7 minutes per game to begin the Miami series (when Boston was healthy) to 32.3 minutes in the last 11 games. That included two 40-minute efforts in the East Finals, playing against a much younger and more athletic Pacers group that tried to hunt him in isolation.

Jrue Holiday, who was one of the most impactful Celtics in the East Finals, is eager for his teammate to suit up again.

“KP is one of our best scorers,” Holiday said. “He’s one of our best rim protectors. I feel like we’re all mature enough to get back in the groove, or have him fit right back in when he gets back. And we do want KP back. Like, we can’t wait for him to be back and be a part of this on the court.”

Holiday made sure to point out Porzingis’ defensive presence, too, considering he was a top-five paint presence in the league during the regular season. Among all 39 players to contest at least 300 shots at the rim this year, Porzingis ranked fifth in efficiency allowed (52.1%), per Second Spectrum tracking.

After Friday’s practice in Boston, local reporters captured footage of Porzingis going through his cool-down routine.

It was mostly stand-still shooting from the perimeter, mimicking a lot of the catch-and-shoot opportunities he would get out of ball-screen actions with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

Although it’s unclear how ‘ready’ Porzingis is for game speed and full contact, the Celtics’ medical staff played it the right way by holding out Porzingis and not clearing him prematurely.

With Boston skating through the Eastern Conference with a 12-2 record, never trailing in a series, there was no benefit to him returning in the Indiana series. They had to carefully weigh the risk versus the reward. The extended window of rest and recovery made it a no-brainer.

Lower-leg injuries are the most serious and concerning for a player’s availability. Playoff teams rarely have the luxury of waiting for a full recovery. In most situations, the injured star feels pressured to return before they get back to 100% and recoup their conditioning.

Reflecting on the most notable calf strain that swung a championship, it was Kevin Durant that found himself in a similar spot during the 2019 playoffs. Durant went down with a calf injury on May 8, in Game 5 of a second round series. He was sidelined for a month before returning on June 10, in Game 5 of the Finals.

Of course, that was the night Durant ruptured his Achilles in the same leg of his calf strain. While it’s impossible to prove he would’ve been safer to return with just a few more days of rest, that’s always going to linger in the back of Durant’s mind.

Golden State was in a difficult position at the time, trailing 3-1 in the Finals and going on the road to Toronto. Durant heavily petitioned to return — part of him realizing the chance at a 3-peat was slipping away, and the other part knowing he’d soon be taking his talents to Brooklyn.

We’ll never fully know if Golden State would’ve allowed Durant to take the floor if they were leading 3-1 instead of trailing. But it’s a fascinating comparison to what Boston is dealing with now, both in terms of the specific injury and recovery period.

The time between Durant’s calf strain and his return to playoff action, when he tore the Achilles? 32 days. It’s the same amount of time Porzingis has missed, not including the week of preparation Boston now has before Game 1 next Thursday, June 6.

Nevertheless, all signs are pointing in the right direction for Porzingis to hit the floor, at some point, before the title is decided.

The team’s optimism at practice certainly matches what Porzingis had to say Wednesday on X, with a post written in Latvian that translated to: “Thank you to everyone who supports and sympathizes throughout the season. I’ll be back in line soon. See you in the Finals and then in the arena with our guys.”

Along with hinting about his return to the Celtics’ lineup, his last sentence indicates he’ll be with the Latvian national team from July 2-7 when they enter the Olympic qualifying tournament.

Will the Celtics have to go through an adjustment period when they clear Porzingis? Holiday doesn’t seem to think so.

As he referenced, the reason Boston built this type of depth was to prepare for a variety of matchups and to insulate them when injuries struck.

“It also goes back to the regular season,” Holiday said. “Sometimes (Porzingis) was out and (Horford) was in and vice-versa. We literally went through it before. We went through all scenarios before of what could happen, or what would happen, whatever. It kind of shows.”

To Holiday’s point, they’ve truly had the best of both worlds. According to lineup data from Cleaning The Glass, Boston played 2,285 total possessions during the regular season with Horford on the floor and Porzingis off. If you flip that, it was almost identical (2,282 possessions) with Porzingis on and Horford off.

The Celtics know how to play with either big man, and they also have the ability to play together because of Porzingis’ elite floor-spacing.

These next few days will be critical for Porzingis, as he will presumably have more opportunities to go through extensive drills and contact work. Just like with any player going through a month-long rehab, there will be checkpoints he has to meet before Boston can clear him.

When that time comes, he automatically becomes the biggest swing factor in the NBA Finals.