AI could disrupt the job market by 2030 as severely as COVID did in 2020

• AI will force about 12 million workers to change jobs by 2030, a McKinsey partner said on Thursday.

• Job losses will hit four key sectors, including administrative, customer service, and manufacturing.

• But automation could affect 30% of tasks across everyone’s jobs.

There’s no way to sugarcoat it. AI is going to disrupt a lot of jobs in the coming years.

The technology is set to bring about “12 million occupational transitions” between now and 2030, Kweilin Ellingrud, a senior partner at McKinsey and director of its Global Institute, said at the firm’s media day this week. “That’s about, give or take, the pace of occupational transitions we had during COVID.”

Some areas will see growth, namely roles in healthcare and STEM, Ellingrud said. About 85% of the jobs that AI will likely impact, meanwhile, fit into four categories — administrative assistance, customer service and sales, food service, and production and manufacturing, according to McKinsey.

Many of those jobs involve repetitive work, data collection, and elementary data processing, all of which could be handled by automation, according to a McKinsey report co-authored by Ellingrud. The report estimated that about 11.8 million workers in roles with shrinking demand will need to move into new lines of work by 2030.

But everyone should prepare for at least some changes to their current role.

Between the widespread adoption of generative AI and what Ellingrud called “old school automation,” about 30% of everyone’s work will need to adapt to the changes the technology will bring to the workplace.

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