It’s Betfred Derby day at Epsom and our value-seeker has four fancies on the action-packed ITV programme.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Value Bet tips are now available to qualified, logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, before the full column appears on the main Sporting Life website and App 15 minutes later.
- Following all Matt’s selections to recommended odds/stakes since taking over the column in June 2020 would have produced over 160pts in profit.
Value Bet tips: Saturday June 1
1pt win Whiskey Pete in 1.25 Epsom at 16/1 (General)
1pt win Blue Storm in 3.10 Epsom at 12/1 (General)
0.5pts e.w. Alligator Alley in 3.45 Epsom at 14/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt win Ancient Wisdom in 4.30 Epsom at 7/1 (William Hill)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
An open Derby, but class will out
As ping-pong balls emerged from two small drums on a cup cake-laden table in the shadow of the Assembly Rooms boozer on Epsom High Street on Thursday, the odd build-up to this year’s Betfred Derby appeared to reach its peak.
A rather low-key live draw, on the back of City Of Troy’s Guineas disappointment, Hidden Law’s fatal injury at Chester, an untimely setback for that one’s stablemate Arabian Crown, and news that impressive Dante winner Economics wouldn’t be supplemented, seems to have in a roundabout way contributed to this year’s premier Classic looking distinctly light on quality.
Of course, City Of Troy could yet prove a cut above the rest, as he was last year, but the Newmarket effort was lamentable and the fact he’s drifted from 7/4 to around 100/30 in the past fortnight doesn’t really interest me.
At the beginning of the week when the rain was tumbling, I’d settled on Charlie Appleby’s ANCIENT WISDOM as the most likely winner and while the heavier showers have since missed the course, I can’t get away from the idea that he might just outclass the majority of his rivals when the chips are down on Saturday. And his price has held up well, most importantly.
Ancient Wisdom already holds the likes of Dancing Gemini, Deira Mile and God’s Window on his Futurity Trophy win at Doncaster in October, and that came just two weeks after he hammered recent Curragh winner Chief Little Rock and the Lingfield Derby Trial hero Ambiente Friendly in the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket, a performance that had Derby etched all over it.
Earlier in his career, the Dubawi colt had Ballysax winner Dallas Star back in third when winning at Haydock on debut, and he comfortably gave Sir Michael Stoute’s impressive recent Chester scorer Never So Brave 6lb and a beating on Newmarket’s July Course last summer.
His sole defeat at two came when third to the Irish Guineas winner Rosallion at Ascot, so it’s a top-class body of work from start to finish last season, and the Dante comeback run (7/4 favourite) just looked to be badly needed in the end.
Based on pedigree and what we’ve seen so far, he should improve considerably for the step up to 12 furlongs this weekend and if there’s a horse in here who might be mixing in races like the Arc and Champion Stakes come the end of the season, he appears to fit the bill.
Of the outsiders, the aforementioned Deira Mile is one who could run a solid race from off what promises to be a strong gallop (I could name at least six who have typically enjoyed forcing the issue).
He’s fitted with cheekpieces for the first time after a cosy comeback win in a Windsor novice and has at least had a look around the track at the gallops morning the other week. He’s a 20/1 shot but still has plenty to find with the selection.
Storm brewing and rail may help
Elsewhere, it seems a matter of time before the gallant Breege wins again and she’s got sound enough claims of upsetting favourite Running Lion in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes, primarily due to the fact I think she’ll love her first visit to Epsom.
Having produced most of her finer efforts so far at Goodwood, Sean and John Quinn’s filly could really shine here and she obviously doesn’t need deep ground to be seen at her best.
Highland Avenue looks a bit vulnerable conceding weight all round in the Betfred Diomed Stakes, but I struggled to land on one in opposition as they’ve all got something to prove and I’d be fearful of Marco Botti’s Royal Dubai back from a stint at Meydan, where he appeared to show improved form.
There’s a lot of guesswork involved with him and it’s another race I’m comfortable giving a miss. Instead, I’ll focus on the two big-field sprints in a bid to unearth the real value.
The Betfred 3YO “Dash” Handicap is in just its second season and after the stands’ side rail appeared to benefit last year’s winner Tatterstall, I wonder if we could be looking at a similar scenario with BLUE STORM, who is drawn 20 of 20.
Picked up for just 7,000gns in November, he immediately looked like good business when third to Billy Webster at Wolverhampton on debut for Gemma Tutty, and there was real style to the subsequent handicap success at Southwell in mid-December.
Connections opted to put him away at that stage which can’t have been easy as he was an in-form sprinter with a bunch of decent all-weather options on the table through January, February and March, but they’ve presumably sat tight to try and bag a nice prize on the turf and last month’s Chester return was highly encouraging in that regard.
In the end he finished fourth, behind the reopposing winner Knicks and third Due For Luck, but he is 3lb and 2lb better off with that pair respectively and I really liked how he shaped on his first run for 145 days.
That could bring him on a lot and it’s obviously encouraging to see Rossa Ryan, who was on board at Southwell, back in the saddle for the big day.
Burn-up in the Dash right up Alligator’s alley
In the older-horse Aston Martin “Dash” Handicap, a 55-second tear-up could play right into the hands of the well-treated ALLIGATOR ALLEY.
With Democracy Dilemma, Night On Earth, Looking For Lynda and The Bell Conductor all set to take each other on, there’s got to be a chance the hold-up horses come through with a shout late in the day, and David O’Meara’s seven-year-old needs precisely that sort of set-up to post his best.
The gaps just didn’t come for him in this event last year, Jason Watson ultimately accepting his fate and bringing Alligator Alley home in his own time after being stopped in his run at least twice, but the horse did go on to run excellent races in defeat at Doncaster, Goodwood and York before gaining a deserved seventh career victory when successful at Newcastle in August.
Winless from eight starts since then, he’s come down from a mark of 96 to 88 – his lowest rating for two years – and there were signs he was coming back to form when beaten just under four lengths by Clarendon House at York last time.
Heaven knows if stall four is good or bad, but he’s got plenty of the speed horses drawn close to him and he’s one I’m keen to back to small stakes each-way with the extra places on offer.
Inclined to ignore Pete’s latest offering
The market for the opening Hong Kong Jockey Club Lester Piggott Handicap was looking a bit lop-sided at the time of writing, with four of five shortening right up and the others all on the drift.
One proving very easy to back looks too tempting to miss, namely the Ralph Beckett-trained WHISKEY PETE.
He lines up here on the back of a real shocker when pulling ferociously and giving himself no hope of staying a mile and a half on his seasonal reappearance, but there’s no way that’s his true form and if you chuck it out, ignoring the run altogether, he’d be half the price he is currently.
That suddenly makes him of interest and even more intriguing is that he’s a half-brother to the likes of Candleford and Atty Persse, who were both very talented middle-distance performers but were also capable of throwing in the odd howler when fancied to fare well.
It’s seemingly a bit of a tricky family trait and Whiskey Pete had shown a little quirkiness when winning at York in a mile nursery last October, getting to the front easily enough before looking for company and then pulling out more close home when challenged.
Hector Crouch who rode him to victory on the Knavesmire that day is back in for the ride here and he’s the sort of horse who will either take to Epsom ideally or spit the dummy out and at a big price I’m willing to take that risk as he drops back a couple of furlongs in the Derby-day opener, a race in which Beckett has only ever had three runners – finishing third (4/1), fourth (15/8 fav) and fifth (16/1).
Published at 1600 BST on 31/05/24
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