Andy Schooler brings you his best bets for Monday’s fourth-round action at the French Open.
Tennis betting tips: French Open matches
1.5pts Francisco Cerundolo (+2.5) to beat Novak Djokovic on the set handicap at 5/6 (BoyleSports)
1pt Alex de Minaur to beat Daniil Medvedev at 13/8 (bet365, Betfred)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Alex de Minaur v Daniil Medvedev
As a fairly sizeable underdog, I like the look of De Minaur here.
It was interesting to hear him talking about how he’s playing the best claycourt tennis of his career at present – and one of the reasons for that is he’s added bulk to his frame.
The Australian spoke about how he had been “bullied” by opponents on this surface in the past and has now done something about it.
There have been plenty of wins on the red dirt this spring and since arriving in Paris he’s lost only one set – to the in-form Jan-Lennard Struff in the last round.
Admittedly, none of De Minaur’s victories have come against a player as highly ranked as Medvedev, although the Russian is hardly a man full of self belief on this surface.
His wins during the current clay swing have also failed to include significant scalps, with defeats coming against Tommy Paul, Jiri Lehecka and Karen Khachanov. All are ranked lower than De Minaur.
Medvedev has dropped sets to Dominik Koepfer and Tomas Machac in the past week, unable to dominate as he’d have liked, and De Minaur certainly looks like a player capable of causing problems.
He’ll get a lot back and that ‘bullying’ aspect doesn’t seem likely with Medvedev’s weight of shot not in the top tier.
The head-to-head admittedly shows the Russian 6-2 up but all of those matches have taken place on a hardcourt and the last four have been split evenly.
With his new-found belief, De Minaur looks worth a bet here at 13/8.
Novak Djokovic v Francisco Cerundolo
The big question here is how well has Djokovic recovered after his 3am finish in the last round?
I can’t have been the only one who was surprised to see him scheduled for Monday’s day session – it looks rather harsh after he was shafted by decisions taken on Saturday.
It means a player who wouldn’t have got to sleep before 6am on Sunday will be back on court around 4pm on Monday.
It obviously wasn’t just the time of the finish that was an issue – also the time on the match clock.
Djokovic and Lorenzo Musetti went at it for four and a half hours and while the Serb has been a warrior for a long time now, he’s now 37 and the powers of recovery may not be what they once were.
The opponent isn’t exactly hand-picked given the circumstances.
Cerundolo, who is yet to face Djokovic, will be happy to trade all day long from the baseline and while it may prove folly to try to take Djokovic’s legs, this looks the best time to try that tactic.
The Argentine’s forehand is a shot which may well be able to take Djokovic out of his comfort zone – and Musetti certainly did that during the middle of their third-round contest.
In short, getting with the underdog in some way here is the approach I want to take.
Total games over 33.5 was considered but preference is for Cerundolo to win a set – that can be backed at 5/6 via the set-handicap market.
Posted at 1915 BST on 02/06/24
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