Ivan Yates says Ireland general election imminent as Green Party faces ‘wipeout’

A general election will be held before the end of the year, former Fine Gael minister Ivan Yates predicted yesterday.

The broadcaster said Friday’s “significant” local elections will bring heavy defeats for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, warning: “People aren’t in a great mood.” He hinted Independents would win big filling up to 300 of 949 council seats, and a general election would take place in November.

His comments come as the latest opinion poll shows a seven point drop in support for SF with one in four set to vote for Independents. The Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll puts SF on 22%, FG up three on 22%, FF up one at 17%, SD on 5%, Greens at 4% and Independents on 23%.

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Mr Yates told Newstalk FM’s Anton Savage Show: “Every poll I look at, everyone I talk to out on the hustings, the only people with momentum are Independents. Let’s be clear, in a local and European election you’re much more likely to vote for a personality, a candidature, that is either local or that you like the cut of their jib. People who might be normally Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil [or] Sinn Féin might drift away and see it as less disloyal now.”

Mr Yates said the Green Party “are facing wipeout”, adding: “I think they could lose both their MEPs.” He continued: “Fianna Fáil [at] 270, they’d be doing well to keep the losses within 60/70. Fine Gael would be doing well to get 200.

“Sinn Féin I think will go up to 150. I think the Greens are facing wipeout – I think they could lose both their MEPs”.

Mr Yates said he expects a general election to be called in the coming months with a November polling date. He said: “I think four TDs or so will be elected, [which] means by-elections will have to held on the 8th of December.

“The general election will be held before that – so we’re looking at a November election. This is like the first part of a two-part play and that makes these elections more significant than they would normally be.”

Mr Yates said he cannot remember a time when politics appeared as fragmented as it is now. He added: “If you picture back to 2019, even 2020, we’d come through the crash and there was successive years of growth of recovery.

“We’ve had three sort of serious belts: the pandemic, the impact on the cost of living from the Ukrainian crisis, particularly energy prices, and our nearest neighbour being in recession from Brexit. People aren’t in a great mood.”

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