Tennis betting tips: French Open matches
1pt Iga Swiatek to win the first two games v Marketa Vondrousova at 13/10 (Betfred, William Hill)
1pt Carlos Alcaraz to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas 3-0 at 6/4 (Sky Bet, bet365, BetVictor)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Iga Swiatek v Marketa Vondrousova
Swiatek came within a point of exiting the tournament in the second round but she’s now back as the overwhelming favourite to claim the title.
It would certainly take a brave punter to back against her at this stage – certainly in this match.
The Pole has won all three previous meetings with the Wimbledon champion, including a 6-1 6-2 rout here at Roland Garros in 2020.
If the dominance wasn’t clear, each match has been settled in straight sets with four of them won 6-2 or quicker.
Whereas Naomi Osaka had the power to trouble Swiatek in that near miss last week, Vondrousova’s game will be more varied and she’ll attempt to work Swiatek around the court with her mixture of shots.
It’s a tactic which rarely succeeds on the clay given Swiatek’s court speed and I can’t see her being properly tested here.
Unsurprisingly, the defending champion is very short for victory, even in straights, so the bet I like is an old favourite – Swiatek to lead 2-0 after two games.
She’s a renowned fast starter, especially on her favourite surface, and this bet has now landed in 12 of her last 18 matches at the French Open.
Beating Swiatek on clay is arguably the biggest challenge in the women’s game right now and you can see how some players will be beaten before they even step onto court.
Vondrousova should have more belief than that but she was quickly 2-0 down in that 2020 meeting and she can go the same way as so many others.
Stefanos Tsitsipas v Carlos Alcaraz
On paper this looks the match of the day, hence its night-session billing, but it may not prove to be the classic many are hoping for.
Alcaraz has been utterly dominant against the Greek, especially on clay, and it will take a big turnaround for things to change.
The head-to-head reads 5-0 with three of those matches (the most recent three) having taken place on clay.
Alcaraz has won the last six sets, three of which were here at Roland Garros at last exact stage 12 months ago. The Spaniard won 6-1 6-2 7-6.
There seems to be a theory in the broadcast media that Tsitsipas is in better shape form-wise this time around but look back to the 2023 clay campaign and you see him making the Barcelona final and semis in Rome. In truth, the Greek’s slump came later in the year.
There’s also a view that the Tsitsipas backhand has improved and while that’s probably true, has it improved enough to stand up to the barrage it will receive from Alcaraz’s thumping groundstrokes? I doubt it.
Tsitsipas simply hasn’t been able to deal with the Alcaraz game on this surface in the past and a look into the data shows how big a task he faces.
Tsitsipas has won just 63% of his service games on clay against the Spaniard and broken in only 13%.
Yes, Alcaraz came in under an injury cloud but he’s completed each task in Paris without significant problems – Jesper de Jong gave him a few concerns but not for that long.
Felix Auger-Aliassime’s injury meant he wasn’t tested in the last round so while I can see an argument that Alcaraz maybe slightly undercooked, I’m not at all convinced Tsitsipas is the player ready to take advantage.
He was very fortunate not to be two sets down to Matteo Arnaldi the other day and a repeat of that start will likely she him swept aside.
I take Alcaraz to win in straight sets once more.
Posted at 2145 BST on 03/06/24
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
