European election 2024: Sinn Féin polling well in Ireland South amid tight battle for final three seats

No official multi-party tally is being conducted for Ireland South in the European Parliament election given the large number of ballots and the sprawling geographic nature of the constituency.

The count — which begins at Nemo Rangers GAA complex in Cork today — is expected to last for up to three days.

However, an analysis of Ireland South ballots as they were being separated from Local Government election papers by various party officials offered an early indication of how the count may develop.

Elections 2024 analysis with Kevin Doyle and Jody Corcoran

There are a total of 23 candidates battling for the five available seats in a constituency composed of all Munster counties as well as Wexford, Wicklow, Carlow and Kilkenny from Leinster.

Billy Kelleher of Fianna Fáil and Seán Kelly of Fine Gael, appear certain to successfully defend their Euro seats.

Mr Kelleher, a former junior minister, has polled exceptionally strongly in his native Cork and in rural areas across Munster.

Mr Kelly, a former GAA President, also appears to have attracted a strong vote — with exceptionally strong transfers.

An early analysis of ballot papers also hinted that outgoing Wexford Independent MEP Mick Wallace is also well placed to defend his Strasbourg berth.

However, transfers are likely to determine the destination of the final two seats with Independent Michael McNamara also attracting strong support.

There is also a growing belief that Sinn Féin is likely to regain a seat for the party.

Sinn Féin lost its European Parliament berth in 2019 and had focused a determined campaign on regaining the seat with Kathleen Funchion and running mate Paul Gavan.

Ms Funchion’s vote, say Sinn Féin officials, is ahead of their best predictions in her southeastern heartland.

Transfers between the two Sinn Féin officials will now prove key to them regaining their MEP seat.

Outgoing MEP Grace O’Sullivan of the Green Party appears to be struggling in some rural areas.

Meanwhile, Fianna Fáil’s Cynthia Ní Mhurchú is likely to be locked in a bitter battle with challengers for transfers.

Analysts stressed that transfers between the large number of Independents could prove crucial in later counts, particularly if Independents successfully transfer to each other despite geographical differences.