Preview and best bets for the Kaskada Golf Challenge

Golf betting tips: Kaskada Golf Challenge

2pts e.w. Nicolai von Dellinghausen at 35/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

2pts e.w. Oliver Bekker at 35/1 (BoyleSports, Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1.5pts e.w. Jannik de Bruyn at 40/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

0.5pt e.w. Connor McKinney at 150/1 (Unibet, BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

0.5pt e.w. John Axelsen at 200/1 (Sky Bet, BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

While the eyes of the golfing world are on Pinehurst, there are a host of potential stars of the future taking their first, tentative steps along a road which they hope will one day lead to major championships.

As the weeks roll into each other it’s always nice to see tournaments try to establish their own identity and the Kaskada Golf Challenge has invited along some of the best Europeans to have recently graduated from the US college system, all of whom have been afforded maximum respect by the layers.

Mats Ege made his professional debut in last week’s Scandinavian Mixed and did well in 51st. He’s Norway’s latest young talent and received plenty of help from Viktor Hovland on his way to 11th place in the PGA Tour University standings, which were headed by star-in-the-making Michael Thorbjornsen. Nobody though managed more than Ege’s five wins along the way.

Not far behind in 16th, and firmly Germany’s number one amateur until turning professional, Jonas Baumgartner is another notable name. We saw a glimpse of what he could do when he made the weekend in last summer’s BMW International Open, and he’s won a couple of good college events this year to sign off on a high.

Herman Wibe Sekne is another Norwegian and he was 19th and the performance of Tim Tillmanns in Spain last week serves as a warning to anyone underestimating these youngsters. Tillmanns was a long way down that PGA Tour U ranking in 83rd place, yet he came straight out and finished 17th in the Challenge de Cadiz.

We saw last summer with Adrien Dumont de Chassart and Ricky Castillo over on the Korn Ferry Tour that winning straight away isn’t out of the question, but I can’t say that any of the above trio stand out at the prices unless you can get the standout 80/1 Baumgartner. We’re all guessing, but I had hoped that bookmakers might have guessed something a good deal bigger than they have.

The course in Brno is notable for its elevation changes which help make the par-four seventh just about driveable. There are three par-fives, two of which are very much on the short side, and a host of good scoring chances when the wind lays down.

When it doesn’t, things get tough because the rough in particular is extremely penal. That’s why we’ve seen players threaten to break 60 at times, yet last year’s winning score was just 12-under.

Adamstal and St Mellion are the two courses which come to mind when I think ‘elevation changes’ and the former looks a really good guide. Marc Hammer won there and was eighth here, Lorenzo Scalise won here and was 10th there, and Marcel Schneider, having won here, shot an opening 62 at Adamstal.

Manuel Elvira, Josh Geary, Borja Virto, Damien Perrier, Rikard Karlberg and Felix Mory are others with top-10 finishes at both courses and it looks a good place to go hunting for clues, while it’s also perhaps notable that former Kaskada champion Ross McGowan went on to finish runner-up at St Mellion.

I was pretty pleased to discover that NICOLAI VON DELLINGHAUSEN won at Adamstal on the Pro Golf Tour once upon a time, a performance he backed up when 19th there at this level and 28th on the DP World Tour during the summer of 2020.

Von Dellinghausen had been on my radar already because he’s dropping in class having made cuts in Belgium and Germany on his last two starts. I will admit that Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen’s Cadiz win did annoy me somewhat because he too was coming back down in grade having been competitive at that higher level, but hopefully von Dellinghausen can make up for it.

A tidy player who can put the lights out, before these two improved displays in the Soudal and European Opens he’d shown what he can do on the Challenge Tour with back-to-back top-20 finishes in the UAE, and I very much expect him to be competitive once more.

There are definitely some visual similarities with Luton Hoo, where he’s been second and fourth in two starts, and as well as playing plenty in the Czech Republic, he contended on his sole start just over the Slovakian border at Penati. Anything north of 25/1 looks good value.

JANNIK DE BRUYN contended in the aforementioned European Open, which was won by Laurie Canter, and he can do the same in this considerably weaker field.

De Bruyn has long been touted as a potential star and I put him up on his most recent Challenge Tour start in Spain, where he played pretty nicely to finish just outside the top 20 at a course he knew from his amateur days.

We were able to pinch three-figure prices in places so there’s some hesitancy in going in at considerably less than that, but we are without standout performer Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen and De Bruyn’s performances both in Spain and over the first 54 holes at Green Eagle merit the change.

That’s before you consider two important factors: that his first Challenge Tour top-10 came here two years ago, and that his first taste of contending at this level came a few months later at St Mellion, where he was fourth after three rounds.

In fact his subsequent top-15s in Basel and Provence could also be decent pointers. The course in Switzerland definitely fits the bill in terms of being undulating, while Pont Royal Golf Club is described as having ‘holes that regularly plunge and soar across a forested landscape’, which you could cut and paste for Kaskada.

Louis Klein is the top-ranked Czech youngster in this field but he was born in 2009 and at twice the price I’m more inclined to side with Timotej Formanek, who won a 54-hole event here at Kaskada on the Czech Tour last year.

His opening 66 was the round of the day, his second-round 70 was bettered by only one and his third-round 72 under tougher conditions was much better than average as he won by four and while that’s low-grade form, he’s been collecting titles locally before he sets off for a college career at Ohio State.

At 250/1 in a place he’s a fun bet but I have to give one more chance to JOHN AXELSEN at just a hair shorter.

I won’t repeat the whole argument from his penultimate start in the Danish Golf Challenge but it’s fair to say that as a 66-80/1 chance there, odds of 200/1 just four rounds and three weeks later are difficult for me to pass up.

It’s true that he was abysmal out of the gate and not for the first time since the start of the year, but there had been signs of life in the UAE and we saw last year that he could be competitive on the DP World Tour, which is exactly what you’d expect given his strong amateur pedigree.

Axelsen did fare better in round two at home and then came out in Spain last week to miss the cut on the number. It was in the end a valiant effort, his final nine a bogey-free 32 with four birdies, and I can’t help but wonder whether that gives him enough to work with heading to Brno, having watched on as compatriot Goth-Rasmussen won.

Anyone who followed the advice in Denmark should be pretty clear that there’s risk involved when we’re backing players who’ve been searching for something, but that narrowest of missed cuts, ending on a high, followed by a win for his former national teammate gives us the ideal blend of promise and price for a small-stakes bet on a big talent who may yet come good.

Back towards the front of the market, Alex Levy has worked his way back to the top and rightly so. His Challenge Tour form is virtually flawless and it’ll be surprising if he doesn’t go very close to winning before the season is out; it’ll be more surprising if this isn’t a one-and-done visit to the Challenge Tour as he returns to where he belongs.

He’s the one to beat ahead of Deon Germishuys, who is tidy and promising. Germishuys conjured a 64-69 weekend here two years ago and is now a better player who arrives in better form, so had there been just a bit more juice in the price he’d have been of some interesting.

Returning to Tillmanns, that youngster who was 17th in Cadiz last week, and he does have experience of Kaskada having played the European Boys’ here in 2018. The same goes for Pietro Bovari and Gregorio de Leo, the latter set to place last week until the final three holes ruined an otherwise excellent week.

Mark Power was there for Ireland, Robin Williams for England, but my eye is drawn to CONNOR MCKINNEY, who could’ve been easy to miss as he was representing Scotland but now plays under the flag of Australia.

What’s particularly interesting about McKinney is that he’s come back here and shown the benefits of that experience, finishing fifth last year. He opened with an excellent, bogey-free 65, which was his first spin around the course since he signed off that amateur event with a bogey-free 68.

Although McKinney stuttered during the middle rounds, another 68 to finish means he has plenty of good course experience and the same goes of playing in the Czech Republic in general, as he was 19th on his only other start, over at Panorama.

We’re getting a big price because his form doesn’t look up to scratch, but during his last three starts he’s twice been in the mix. First came 25th in the UAE, where he sat fifth through three rounds, and last week he opened 69-69 to lie third before an expensive weekend in Spain.

Course form has stacked up really well here – Scalise, Martin Simonsen and Schneider all had it before returning to win – so while his long-game and lack of experience are negatives, at bigger than 100/1 I want this promising youngster on-side.

Niklas Regner is an outsider you can make a case for with that course form in mind (18-8-27) as is Virto, who has been right in the mix for this title three times in four starts at the course. The Spaniard is generally hard to predict but that’s not been the case here and when he’s firing, he’s the sort of strong driver who matches up well with this tricky course.

Christoffer Blomstrand completes the shortlist after he was the best player in the field over the final 54 holes last week, but I can’t get away from OLIVER BEKKER, another class act in this sort of grade whose turn looks near.

Bekker has been right in the mix in three of his last four starts and if you’re willing to forgive him a missed cut here in 2021, then he looks one of the strongest options in the field.

He’s excellent off the tee when at his best, has stacks of form on similar courses including third place at Adamstal, and at 35/1 looks as likely a winner as anyone bar Levy and Germishuys, who have made their way to the very top of the betting.

Germishuys and Bekker can’t be split on this year’s head-to-head and they’re side-by-side in DataGolf‘s rankings, too. Germishuys does have youth on his side but right now, the choice has to be Bekker at their respective prices.

Posted at 1955 BST on 11/06/24

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