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For election candidates, it’s never over until it’s over

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3 months ago

June 13, 2024

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For election candidates, it’s never over until it’s over

Two candidates have thrown in the towel this week only to revise their views when they thought transfers might turn in their favour.

In 2019, Fine Gael’s Deirdre Clune was more than 15,000 voters behind her nearest rival after the 15th count and she had more or less conceded the election. In the next two counts, however, mammoth transfers from her running mate Andrew Doyle and an unexpected 9,000 transfers from Fianna Fáil’s Malcolm Byrne saw her gain 28,000 votes and actually overtake her rivals.

Her recovery is a salutary tale for the candidates left in the race for the last seats in Midlands North West and in Ireland South. Where the transfers go can be very unpredictable. Those you expect to transfer heavily will let you down as Clare Daly found to her cost with Bríd Smith. Those who you expect little from can sometimes deliver a bonanza.

Twice now in two days, in MNW and in Ireland South, we have seen candidates say they are finished, only to hastily reviewthat view several hours later. Michelle Gildernew of Sinn Féin did it in MNW on Tuesday.

Equally, in Ireland South, Grace O’Sullivan told our southern correspondent Barry Roche that her seat was “definitely slipping away now”.

“In 2019 and that’s my only comparative, I was extraordinarily transfer friendly whereas this time I haven’t. 2019 was the climate campaign and the tide very much came in and the Green wave was there and now it just feels that momentum has gone,” she said.

O’Sullivan spoke too soon. Unexpectedly, in the 16th count last night, the eliminated Social Democrats candidate Susan Doyle transferred a whopping 8,000 votes to O’Sullivan putting her right back in the mix.

It’s still marginal for her, though, as she will need to get in advance of Mick Wallace or Cynthia Ní Mhurchú and that will be difficult as the next to be eliminated are the anti-migrant candidate Derek Blighe and John Mullins of Fine Gael.

In MNW, the picture is just as complicated. It looks like the last seat will be duked out between Michelle Gildernew and Ciaran Mullooly, unless Niall Blaney gives a large transfer to Lisa Chambers, rather than to Barry Cowen.

Our reporting of the counts will continue today. You can get all the up-to-date count figures too, including for the local elections, that will allow you anorak to your heart’s delight.

Our main story this morning is looking at the political implications of all this, especially the rising tensions between the Greens and the other two Coalition parties.

We report that Minister for Arts and Media Catherine Martin has warned Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael that the climate crisis “is way too important to toy around with” during elections.

Asked about attacks on her party from other Coalition parties during the campaign Ms Martin, the Green deputy leader, replied: “I can’t control the other political parties and what they might do.

It was actually Newbridge and nowhere

The colossal battle between James Stokes of Sinn Féin and Melissa Byrne of Aontú came to an end yesterday after four recounts, with Stokes getting the nod on the back of two extra votes.

But it was a Pyrrhic victory. All it did was bring the 18-year-old Stokes to the next count. Sadly for him, Byrne did not transfer enough votes to allow him overtake Tom McDonnell, who became the 949th and final councillor to win a seat.

Marie O’Halloran has written a profile of McDonnell who ran in the Newbridge LEA on an anti-immigrant ticket. He is a joint founder of a group called Éire Saor.

Planning Bill was guillotined at midnight

As if they had not enough of burning the midnight oil over the past five days, the Dáil sat past midnight last night to facilitate the report and final stages of the Planning and Development Bill.

This is the piece of legislation that Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien argues is necessary to ensure the Government’s ambitious housing programme meets its targets. It proposes to streamline planning, reconstitute An Bord Pleanála, and make it more difficult to object, and take legal challenges against developments. It has been a very controversial Bill and has been edging its way through Committee stage for months.

The Government announced this week it would guillotine the Bill after the second day of debate in the Dáil. The Opposition has vociferously objected to this, with some claiming that the railroading of it through the Dáil is a sign the Government is clearing the decks in advance of a general election.

Lo and behold, when the clock struck midnight last night, the guillotine came down. Michael Healy-Rae told the Ceann Comhairle that the Dáil was leaving 585 amendments behind it.

“I really think that it’s disgraceful for the Government to be guillotining this Bill before the House,” he complained.

More trouble at mill

Cormac McQuinn reports that RTÉ chairman Terence O’Rourke has told politicians that the broadcaster’s board is considering an exit package for an individual that could be around €400,000. The Oireachtas Media Committee was given no information on the identity of the person but Mr O’Rourke confirmed that the minister had been told about it.

That’s really going to bring RTÉ back into the political spotlight.

Best reads and listens

Miriam Lord has a wonderful piece on Taoiseach Simon Harris baiting the Opposition for a second day following the election results.

She writes that in an exchange with Michael Collins of Independent Ireland Harris started “suddenly putting on this funny quivery voice and flapping his hands. ‘ … Oooh, the Government doesn’t understand rural Ireland, Oooh, the Government …’

Cue, furious fuming and outrage from the rural Deputies on the Opposition benches.

Marie O’Halloran has a great report on Minister of State Malcolm Noonan castigating Mattie McGrath for his anti-science world view after the Tipperary TD accused the EPA of “fake news” over its report which showed continuing issues with the quality of water in our rivers and lakes.

Cormac McQuinn has a comprehensive look at the winners and losers of Election 2024. A great synopsis.

Marie also reports on former president Mary Robinson’s speech to the Seanad. She told the Upper House we may have only six years to save the planet.

It’s not only Regina Doherty. Martin Wall reports that Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary has also been complaining about bicycle lanes. His assertion that few people use them in Dublin is a bit of a stretch though.