Celtics vs. Mavericks pick against the spread, over/under for Game 3 of 2024 NBA Finals

Update: Porzingis is out for the Celtics for Game 3, but this hasn’t shifted the lines at all. The Mavericks are 3-point favorites and the total is 214. I still like Dallas as the ATS pick and the over on the total.

The 2024 NBA Finals shift to Texas for Game 3 Wednesday evening as the Dallas Mavericks now get to host the Boston Celtics after two games in the Northeast. The Mavericks somewhat recovered from a blowout in Game 1 to provide more resistance in Game 2, but still come home down 2-0 to the Celtics in what is now a must-win contest. No team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a playoff series in the NBA.

Luka Doncic remains probable after battling through a knee injury. It hasn’t impacted his production at all, but the guard does appear to be a bit slower moving up and down the floor. Kristaps Porzingis suffered a leg injury late in Game 2 and is officially considered day-to-day. He’s questionable for Game 3.

The Mavericks are 2.5-point favorites according to DraftKings Sportsbook with the total coming in at 213. Dallas is -135 on the moneyline while Boston is +114.

Celtics vs. Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET

Pick ATS: Mavericks -2.5

Boston hasn’t been an ATS underdog much this season, going 1-2 in the category. All three instances have been on the road, and the Celtics are 22-22-3 ATS away from TD Garden. The Mavericks have been a great ATS team all season at 59-41-1 but are just 25-24 ATS at home. Dallas is 19-17 ATS as a home favorite.

Doncic has been a superstar as expected but he’s gotten little help from the supporting cast, namely Kyrie Irving. Role players tend to play better at home, and Irving is too good of a player to continue shooting this poorly. The Celtics have shown they can withstand poor performances to take away games, although they haven’t faced a team that executes as well in the clutch as Dallas. I think that situation finally arises in earnest in Game 3, and the Mavericks punch back at home in what is a must-win contest for them.

Over/Under: Over 213

The first two games did go under this total, although Game 2 came closer to the number despite Boston and Dallas both shooting under 26% from deep. These offenses should eventually come around, particularly for the Mavericks as they return home. The Celtics are 51-47 to the over on the season while the Mavericks are 45-55-1 to the over. Even though Dallas locks things up at home defensively, I’d still back the over given how poor the offenses have been so far. There’s going to be a positive regression at some point.