Some competitive races from York and Chester come under the spotlight as our man underlines his big-priced fancies this weekend.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Value Bet tips are now available to qualified, logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, before the full column appears on the main Sporting Life website and App 15 minutes later.
- Following all Matt’s selections to recommended odds/stakes since taking over the column in June 2020 would have produced over 159pts in profit.
Value Bet tips: Saturday June 15
1pt win Burdett in 3.20 Chester at 12/1 (General)
1pt win The Coffee Pod in 3.35 York at 28/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt win Midnight Affair in 3.35 York at 28/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
York’s annual ‘Macmillan Saturday’ does wonders for charity but it isn’t always the most forgiving card for a punter’s pocket and the handicaps on ITV4 look typically devilish this weekend.
I’ll give the thick of it a respectful pass but the Churchill Tyres Supporting Macmillan Sprint Handicap always draws me in and this year’s I’m inclined to back a couple at big prices.
The first is THE COFFEE POD, who has his quirks and runs from 1lb out of the weights here, but otherwise has a reasonably attractive profile for a race that I suspect might really play to his strengths.
He was a non-stayer on his last trip to York, finishing well down the field in a seven-furlong sales race here on his final juvenile outing in October, but the 2023 campaign had been promising up until then and featured a course and distance novice win over Pilgrim, who went on to win a novice event here later in the same month and is now rated 92 after recently winning a handicap at Musselburgh.
Ziggy’s Condor – in the same silks – was back in third and reopposes The Coffee Pod on similar terms in Saturday’s race after a good comeback run when beaten a short-head here last month.
The Coffee Pod has been more miss than hit himself so far this term, running four times and being well held other than when bumping into a classy subsequent scorer (Kendall Roy) with a decent effort at Windsor in April, but I don’t think he was seen to best effect when tried in cheekpieces for the first time in the “Dash” at Epsom a fortnight ago.
Things didn’t go brilliantly at the start (Pat Dobbs reported he suffered interference on leaving the stalls) and the horse was visibly caught out by the return to five furlongs when the tempo increased before switching paths towards the near side and just being brought home in his own time in the final couple of furlongs.
Going back up to a truly-run six furlongs on a flat track we know he handles looks a major plus, and although officially a pound ‘wrong’, he’s still running off a mark (81) which is 5lb lower than at the start of the season, while Mia Nicholls takes off an extra 5lb in the saddle too.
The other one of interest is Dark Angel filly MIDNIGHT AFFAIR, who has left Clipper Logistics but been retained at the yard to run under the Richard Fahey Racing Club banner which looks quite significant.
She obviously isn’t going to come up to the standards of which she was initially thought capable, having finished ninth in the Queen Mary after winning the Hilary Needler last summer, but the recent reappearance run left me in no doubt she has trained on and can win handicaps this year.
Kept at five furlongs for her return here last month, she wasn’t unduly punished when it became clear she wasn’t going to trouble the principals but she stuck to the task nicely in the final stages and was only beaten six lengths.
Dropping her 2lb for that effort looks potentially quite generous and her full-brother Rhythm Master was Group 1-placed on soft ground so I don’t see the wet forecast being a negative for her at all, despite the aforementioned Beverley win coming on quick ground.
I couldn’t dig out anything I wanted to back at Sandown but the Horseradish Catering & Events Roodee Handicap is the televised centrepiece at Chester and it’s quite an attractive punting heat, with the third, fourth and fifth from last month’s Goodwood handicap reopposing on identical terms.
Brunel Nation was a fast-finishing fourth that day, from a high draw in 14, and he’s the one who appeals most from that particular race as he’s evidently still on the improve, but I’m not sure the forecast sharp showers (some of which may be heavy) look great for Richard Hughes’ horse.
By contrast, some ease underfoot, combined with the predicted fast pace courtesy of Purefoy, Princess Alex, Secret World and one or two others, looks perfect for BURDETT and given how much a number of Jack Channon’s horse are improving at present, he could be up to defying a 6lb rise for the recent win at York.
Sent off a big price (14/1) there, he travelled stylishly before putting the race to bed easily enough and he didn’t look to be doing a lot once out in front over towards the far side rail on the Knavesmire.
He looked pretty good value for the win and, seeing as he landed his maiden on soft at Ffos Las last September, he’s going to be right at home if the heavens open.
I’m hoping a proper test at the trip will also help negate the very wide draw to some extent, but Ray Dawson – who takes over this weekend – was probably fairly settled on the fact he’ll most likely have to pick his way through from the back anyway, and stall 14 in effect just makes his mind up for him.
Prior to Friday’s action, Channon had only had four runners at Chester since taking over the licence from his father but one of those was successful and two others have finished in the frame so it’s hoped the journey might pay off again.
Published at 1600 BST on 14/06/24
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
