Andy Schooler previews this week’s grasscourt action at Queen’s Club and Halle with some big prices among his picks.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
1pt e.w. Ugo Humbert in the Cinch Championships at 50/1 (Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM)
0.5pt e.w. Milos Raonic in the Cinch Championships at 50/1 (Betfred)
1.5pts e.w. Hubert Hurkacz in the Terra Wortmann Open at 10/1 (General)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Cinch Championships
- Queen’s Club, London, England, UK (outdoor grass)
Carlos Alcaraz won both Queen’s and Wimbledon last season so there no doubt he deserves his position as favourite this week.
Yet 5/4 in a field in which the top eight seeds are drawn from the world’s top 16 feels rather on the short side.
It’s only seven days since the Spaniard was crowned French Open champion, essentially achieving a life goal.
I could not blame him if his mental focus isn’t quite what it was when he arrived in west London 12 months ago.
There’s also a tricky draw to overcome.
OK, Alcaraz probably won’t have too many issues in dealing with Francisco Cerundolo in what will be his first grasscourt match since his upset of Novak Djokovic in a thrilling, five-set Wimbledon final last July.
But then could come Jack Draper, the winner in Stuttgart on Sunday who is very much bedded in on this surface, while Tommy Paul is a potential quarter-final foe and the American has won two of the pair’s four previous meetings.
I came close to backing Paul at 20/1 but preference is for a man Alcaraz may in the semi-finals and that’s UGO HUMBERT.
The Frenchman has a strong serve, good volleys and loves to come forward – a game well suited to the grasscourts of Queen’s that tend to bounce a little lower and play a little faster than their Wimbledon counterparts.
Humbert proved his grasscourt credentials in Halle in 2021 when he surged to the title at a big price and I wouldn’t be hugely surprised if he went deep this week too.
He was a semi-finalist in Den Bosch at the weekend, losing to eventual champion Alex de Minaur, so is another who already has a good feel for the grass.
He should beat Matteo Arnaldi and I’d also expect him to see off Frances Tiafoe, a player I still have reservations about on this surface.
Former champion Grigor Dimitrov and Seb Korda, runner-up in Den Bosch, are potential quarter-final opponents but I’m still more than happy to side with Humbert at 50/1.
The bottom half looks wide open.
It is led by De Minaur, although going back-to-back may be a tough ask for the Australian.
The other seeds in this section are Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton and Holger Rune, while Andy Murray, Cam Norrie and Dan Evans carry home hopes. There’s also Jordan Thompson and Brandon Nakashima, the latter a player we had a 20/1 near-miss with last week.
Any of those could arguably reach the final but I’m instead going to take a punt on MILOS RAONIC at 50/1.
The former Wimbledon finalist, who also finished runner-up here in 2016, caught the eye in Den Bosch where he took down our pick Thompson in round one before going on to reach the quarter-finals where De Minaur proved too good.
It was the first time this year that he’s managed to get through a tournament without having to withdraw through injury and how his fragile body has reacted to three matches in a matter of days is the obvious concern here.
But there were big positives in terms of how he served – always the key to his game but especially on grass – while the big Canadian was striking the ball well off the ground.
That massive serve is still capable of taking him deep on courts like these and while the draw is tough – Norrie then possibly Fritz and Rune – if there’s someone who is capable of proving unplayable when his game clicks, it is Raonic.
A minimum-stakes bet at 50s looks worth a try.
Terra Wortmann Open
- Halle, Germany (outdoor grass)
There’s another pretty short-priced favourite over in Halle where new world number one Jannik Sinner is no bigger than 8/5.
In a similar way to Alcaraz, that’s too skinny for me given seven others from the world’s top 20 are in attendance, including French Open runner-up Alex Zverev, Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev.
While Sinner did make the semi-finals of Wimbledon last season, the fact remains he’s yet to play in any grasscourt final.
Of course, that doesn’t mean he won’t this week but this clearly isn’t his favourite surface and he can be opposed at the price, especially given his opening match of the grasscourt season will be against Tallon Griekspoor, a player who made the final in Den Bosch at the weekend.
Stefanos Tsitsipas and Medvedev could follow in the later rounds – both have previously won on grass in Mallorca, with the Russian a former finalist here.
That’s far from an easy draw and, for me, Sinner should be swerved.
In the bottom half, Zverev is the man seeded to make the final, although how much scar tissue there will be from the French Open remains to be seen.
Zverev again looked well on course for his maiden Grand Slam title but lost to Alcaraz from two sets to one up. He’s another without a grasscourt title to his name although, like Rublev, he has twice reached the Halle final.
Matteo Berrettini is another who could well contend.
The Italian once again showed his remarkable ability on grass by reaching the Stuttgart final last week despite having played no tennis in the preceding two months.
It was reminiscent of 2022 when he won that title before also triumphing at Queen’s.
In that sense, he’s proved his durability but still there’s an element of risk siding with him to make back-to-back finals given how fragile his body has been in recent years.
He’ll doubtless have his backers at 14/1 but my pick is going to be HUBERT HURKACZ.
The Pole has one of the best serves on the ATP Tour, one which produced the most aces in 2023. He also leads that list so far this season by some distance.
That shot played a major role in him winning this title two years ago when he defeated Nick Kyrgios and Medvedev en route.
Last season he fully tested Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon and is probably still wondering how he blew mini-break leads in two tie-breaks. He would have led by two sets to love if he had seen those jobs through.
His crunching forehand is a massive serve-plus-one shot and the ball does tend to sit up a bit more here in Germany (when compared to Queen’s) which should suit the Pole.
The fifth seed gets Flavio Cobolli first up, followed by either Joao Fonseca or James Duckworth.
Those are winnable matches which he can use to play himself into a bit of form ahead of likely meeting with either Rublev or Berrettini.
In short, there’s plenty to like about Hurkacz’s chances and he’s my pick at 10/1.
Posted at 1835 BST on 16/06/24
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