Recent Blockbuster NFL Contracts That Teams Are Likely to Regret

Last week, the Jacksonville Jaguars signed quarterback Trevor Lawrence to a five-year, $275 million contract extension that includes $200 million guaranteed. He’s now tied with Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow for the highest annual average salary in the NFL.

Lawrence is just the latest young quarterback to cash in. NFL teams keep handing larger and larger contracts to signal-callers who are due for extensions.

However, some of these major deals could come back to haunt teams.

Here are several from the last two years that are particularly likely to do so, with “blockbuster” defined as any deal worth at least $20 million per year and $80 million overall.

Terms: Five years, $275 million with $200 million guaranteed (signed in 2024)

Why they gave it to him: Lawrence was entering the final year of his rookie deal, the Jaguars obviously believe in him, and they’d prefer to save cap space in the short term with the long-term flexibility associated with a new contract.

Why they might regret it: They aren’t exactly positioned to win in the short term anyway. They still have yet to finish above 9-8 with Lawrence, who was the league’s 21st-highest-rated passer during a disappointing third pro season in 2023. There’s a good chance that the 2021 No. 1 overall pick never lives up to his draft hype.

Terms: Four years, $180 million with $100 million guaranteed (signed in 2024)

Why they gave it to him: The Falcons have a stellar arsenal of weapons, most of whom are fairly cheap for now. They clearly want to capitalize on this window before it’s too late and the rest of the offense becomes too expensive.

Why they might regret it: They oddly spent a top-10 pick on Cousins’ eventual successor rather than adding more support for him, and Cousins is far from a lock to lead them to success. Fresh off an Achilles injury heading into his age-36 season, he’s been part of only one playoff victory in his NFL career.

Terms: Four years, $96 million with $34.6 million guaranteed (signed in 2023)

Why they gave it to him: He was a key cog just months away from becoming eligible for free agency.

Why they might regret it: There’s no denying his talent, but Gary is now 26 and five years into his career. He’s never been a first- or second-team All-Pro, nor has he been a Pro Bowler. His numbers haven’t taken off, and his consistency is sometimes lacking. Has he peaked?

Terms: Five years, $262.5 million with $218.7 million guaranteed (signed in 2023)

Why they gave it to him: As with Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville, Herbert was about to become a lot more expensive. If you’re hitching your wagon to the guy for the long run, might as well create more cap flexibility.

Why they might regret it: Herbert’s passer rating has actually dropped or remained the same every year thus far in his career. He’s never been even a second-team All-Pro and has been a Pro Bowler only once. He’s coming off a disappointing 2023 season and is now learning a whole new offense for a team that doesn’t appear to be overly competitive. It’s hard to see this pairing becoming something awesome.

Terms: Five years, $255 million with $179.4 million guaranteed (signed in 2023)

Why they gave it to him: Hurts had just taken the Eagles to the Super Bowl in a magnificent season, and he was entering a contract year with no fifth-year option on the table.

Why they might regret it: That fantastic 2022 campaign may have been an anomaly for a quarterback who wasn’t a big factor as a rookie, was good-not-great as a sophomore and came back to earth with an uneven 2024 season. It’s possible we’ve seen the best of him, and that the league has figured him out to an extent.

Terms: Five years, $260 million with $185 million guaranteed (signed in 2023)

Why they gave it to him: It was either that or the franchise tag, which would have been just as costly in the short term while leaving the Ravens vulnerable long-term. That is unless they had decided to part ways.

Why they might regret it: While Jackson immediately put together an MVP campaign for the Ravens, he again failed to get them to a Super Bowl. Now, he’ll become more expensive and the rest of the roster will decline as a result. What’s more, we’re talking about a somewhat fragile, often-exposed quarterback who has failed to complete two of his last three seasons.

Terms: Four years, $160 million with $92 million guaranteed (signed in 2023)

Why they gave it to him: Beats me.

Why they might regret it: He’s a subpar NFL quarterback in practically every metric, and the sample isn’t small anymore. Jones hasn’t thrown more than 15 touchdown passes in a season since he was a rookie in 2019, and his cap number is now massive on a non-competitive roster.

Terms: Four years, $98 million with $75.5 million guaranteed (signed in 2024)

Why they gave it to him: His rookie contract had expired, and the Ravens can’t afford to bleed too much talent if they’re going to capitalize on this window with Lamar Jackson.

Why they might regret it: While Madubuike broke out with a career-high 13 sacks and a second-team All-Pro nod in 2023, that was his first campaign with even six-plus sacks or even a single forced fumble. The 2020 third-round pick could very well be a one-year wonder.

Terms: Three years, $112.5 million with $75 million guaranteed (signed in 2023)

Why they gave it to him: The Jets were shooting for the stars with one of the most accomplished quarterbacks in NFL history.

Why they might regret it: Said accomplished quarterback is old and might be washed up. An Achilles injury cost the 40-year-old almost all of 2023, but he wasn’t himself with Green Bay in 2022, either. Now, he appears to be causing drama once again. This is unlikely to end well for Gang Green.

Terms: Four years, $110 million with $82.8 million guaranteed (signed in 2024)

Why they gave it to him: A good-but-not-great team wanted to make a splash and improve its defense in free agency.

Why they might regret it: The 28-year-old Wilkins isn’t a game-changer. He’s never been an All-Pro of any kind or even a Pro Bowler, he’s never posted an approximate value in the double digits, and he’s never had a campaign with 10 sacks or more than two forced fumbles. And yet he’ll count more than $30 million against the cap in 2025, 2026 and 2027.

Contract information courtesy of Spotrac.