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Caleb Williams and what history tells us about a rookie quarterback’s ability to start fast

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6 months ago

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Caleb Williams and what history tells us about a rookie quarterback’s ability to start fast

There isn’t a position in professional sports that is more difficult or challenging than quarterback in the NFL. Not only is arm talent needed, but players must also be able to diagnose coverages, maneuver the pocket, have excellent vision, display impeccable timing, and have a certain level of moxie to their game. In other words, there’s a lot to handle, which can make starting out as a rookie a daunting task.

That’s what new Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams is preparing to do. Williams was drafted with the No. 1 overall pick last April, and the team made it clear that he’s their Week 1 starter. It’s a first for the Bears, who have preferred to sit their prized rookie quarterbacks behind a veteran until they were deemed ready for action. Not with Williams. Right away, he’s been taking all of the first-team reps and is the clear-cut starter for a Bears team going into the season with playoff aspirations. To get there, though, they will need to start out on the right foot.

That can be challenging for rookie quarterbacks, however. Since the rookie wage scale was implemented back in 2011, 24 rookie quarterbacks have started for their team in Week 1. Some had success immediately (CJ Stroud), while others were thrown to the wolves (DeShone Kizer).

To determine if rookies really do struggle out of the gate when starting in Week 1, we took a look at various statistics from 23 of those quarterbacks over the course of their first four games as professionals. These include completion percentage, yards per game, touchdowns, interceptions, quarterback rating, and overall record. We also included their rookie season averages to compare and see if they improved or regressed as the year went on.

PLEASE NOTE: Because this list focuses on rookie quarterbacks who started Week 1, players who started a week later, like Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, and Justin Herbert, were not included. Anthony Richardson was omitted since he only played in four games total his rookie year and left two of them early due to injury. All statistics used are courteous of Stathead.

With that, here are all 23 rookie quarterbacks:

Dec 13, 2015; Charlotte, NC, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (1) celebrates after his team scores a touchdown during the first half of the game against the Atlanta Falcons at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Sharpe-USA TODAY Sports

  • Team: Carolina Panthers
  • Record: 1-3
  • Completion percentage: 59.5% (season average 59.96%)
  • Average yards per game: 346.5 (season average 253.2)
  • Touchdowns: 5
  • Interceptions: 5
  • QB rating: 84.5 (season average 84.5)

Andy Dalton drops back to throw in the second quarter against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, Oct. 1, 2017.

100117 Bengals

  • Team: Cincinnati Bengals
  • Record: 2-2
  • Completion percentage: 58.0% (season average 58.10%)
  • Average yards per game: 217 (season average 212.4)
  • Touchdowns: 4
  • Interceptions: 4
  • QB rating: 76.9 (season average 80.4)

Oct 9, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) drops back to pass against the Chicago Bears at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports

  • Team: Indianapolis Colts
  • Record: 2-2
  • Completion percentage: 54.2% (season average 54.10%)
  • Average yards per game: 302 (season average 273.4)
  • Touchdowns: 7
  • Interceptions: 5
  • QB rating: 77.1 (season average 76.5)

Aug 13, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Washington Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III (10) in a preseason NFL football game against the Cleveland Browns at FirstEnergy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

  • Team: Washington Commanders
  • Record: 2-2
  • Completion percentage: 69.4% (season average 65.60%)
  • Average yards per game: 267.5 (season average 213.3)
  • Touchdowns: 4
  • Interceptions: 1
  • QB rating: 103.2 (season average 102.4)

Aug 13, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17) runs with the ball during the first quarter of a preseason NFL football game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

  • Team: Miami Dolphins
  • Record: 1-3
  • Completion percentage: 55.9% (season average 58.3)
  • Average yards per game: 261.5 (season average 205.9)
  • Touchdowns: 3
  • Interceptions: 6
  • QB rating: 66.4 (Season average 76.1)

Dec 1, 2013; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Brandon Weeden (3) throws a pass in the second quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at FirstEnergy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

  • Team: Cleveland Browns
  • Record: 0-4
  • Completion percentage: 53.9% (season average 57.40%)
  • Average yards per game: 249.25 (season average 225.7)
  • Touchdowns: 3
  • Interceptions: 7
  • QB rating: 60.4 (season average 72.6)

Dec 10, 2017; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) drops to throw a pass during the first quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Field. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

  • Team: Seattle Seahawks
  • Record: 2-2
  • Completion percentage: 60% (season average 64.1%)
  • Average yards per game: 148.5 (season average 194.9)
  • Touchdowns: 4
  • Interceptions: 4
  • QB rating: 73.5 (season average 100)

Sep 28, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback EJ Manuel (3) looks for an open receiver during the third quarter against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

  • Team: Buffalo Bills
  • Record: 2-2
  • Completion percentage: 60.7% (season average 58.8%)
  • Average yards per game: 214 (season average 197.2)
  • Touchdowns: 5
  • Interceptions: 3
  • QB rating: 80.2 (season average 77.7)

Oct 17, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; New York Jets quarterback Geno Smith (7) looks to pass during the second half against the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

  • Team: New York Jets
  • Record: 2-2
  • Completion percentage: 57.4% (season average 55.8%)
  • Average yards per game: 272.5 (season average 190.4)
  • Touchdowns: 4
  • Interceptions: 8
  • QB rating: 68.6 (season average 66.5)

Dec 22, 2019; Carson, California, USA; Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) run-off the field after the Raiders beat the Los Angeles Chargers at Dignity Health Sports Park. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

  • Team: Las Vegas Raiders
  • Record: 0-4
  • Completion percentage: 63.2% (season average 58.1%)
  • Average yards per game: 183.5 (season average 204.4)
  • Touchdowns: 4
  • Interceptions: 4
  • QB rating: 75.2 (season average 76.6)

TAMPA, FL – DECEMBER 27: Quarterback Jameis Winston #3 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers scrambles against the Chicago Bears in the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium on December 27, 2015 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Cliff McBride/Getty Images)

  • Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Record: 1-3
  • Completion percentage: 54.9% (season average 58.3%)
  • Average yards per game: 241.2 (season average 252.6)
  • Touchdowns: 6
  • Interceptions: 7
  • QB rating: 71.2 (season average 84.2)

Aug 12, 2017; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota (8) runs with the ball against the New York Jets during the first quarter of a preseason game at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

  • Team: Tennessee Titans
  • Record: 1-3
  • Completion percentage: 64% (season average 62.2%)
  • Average yards per game: 280 (season average 234.8)
  • Touchdowns: 8
  • Interceptions: 3
  • QB rating: 99.7 (season average 91.5)

Dec 4, 2016; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz (11) points out defense prior to snapping the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals in the second half at Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals won 32-14. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

  • Team: Philadelphia Eagles
  • Record: 1-3
  • Completion percentage: 67.4% (season average 62.4%)
  • Average yards per game: 251.7 (season average 236.4)
  • Touchdowns: 7
  • Interceptions: 1
  • QB rating: 103.5 (season average 79.3)

Sep 27, 2020; Seattle, Washington, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) passes against the Seattle Seahawks during the first quarter at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

  • Team: Dallas Cowboys
  • Record: 3-1
  • Completion percentage: 67.9% (season average 67.8%)
  • Average yards per game: 253 (season average 229.2)
  • Touchdowns: 3
  • Interceptions: 0
  • QB rating: 98.5 (season average 104.9)

Dec 31, 2017; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback DeShone Kizer (7) warms up before playing the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

  • Team: Cleveland Browns
  • Record: 0-4
  • Completion percentage: 51.1% (season average 53.6%)
  • Average yards per game: 191 (season average 192.9)
  • Touchdowns: 3
  • Interceptions: 8
  • QB rating: 50.9 (season average 60.5)

Oct 28, 2018; Chicago, IL, USA; New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold (14) passes the ball against the Chicago Bears during the first half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

  • Team: New York Jets
  • Record: 1-3
  • Completion percentage: 57.5% (season average 57.7%)
  • Average yards per game: 217 (season average 220.4)
  • Touchdowns: 4
  • Interceptions: 5
  • QB rating: 72.6 (season average 77.6)

Nov 12, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) passes against the Atlanta Falcons during the first half at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

  • Team: Arizona Cardinals
  • Record: 0-3-1
  • Completion percentage: 62.7% (season average 64.4%)
  • Average yards per game: 267.7 (season average 232.6)
  • Touchdowns: 4
  • Interceptions: 4
  • QB rating: 78.8 (season average 87.4)

Nov 22, 2020; Landover, Maryland, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) passes the ball under pressure from Washington Football Team defensive end Chase Young (99) in the second quarter at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

  • Team: Cincinnati Bengals
  • Record: 1-2-1
  • Completion percentage: 65.5% (season average 65.3%)
  • Average yards per game: 280.2 (season average 268.8)
  • Touchdowns: 6
  • Interceptions: 2
  • QB rating: 89.7 (season average 89.8)

Jan 2, 2022; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) gets set to throw a pass during the first half against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

  • Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Record: 0-4
  • Completion percentage: 57% (season average 59.6%)
  • Average yards per game: 218.2 (season average 214.2)
  • Touchdowns: 5
  • Interceptions: 7
  • QB rating: 66.4 (season average 71.9)

Aug 21, 2021; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson (2) warms up before game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

  • Team: New York Jets
  • Record: 1-3
  • Completion percentage: 56.8% (season average 55.6%)
  • Average yards per game: 231.2 (season average 179.5)
  • Touchdowns: 4
  • Interceptions: 8
  • QB rating: 62.8 (season average 69.7)

Nov 18, 2021; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; NFL New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) passes the ball against the Atlanta Falcons during the first quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

  • Team: New England Patriots
  • Record: 1-3
  • Completion percentage: 70% (season average 67.6%)
  • Average yards per game: 253 (season average 223.6)
  • Touchdowns: 4
  • Interceptions: 4
  • QB rating: 84.7 (season average 92.5)

Oct 1, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) passes the ball in the third quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

  • Team: Carolina Panthers
  • Record: 0-4
  • Completion percentage: 63.9% (season average 59.8%)
  • Average yards per game: 187.5 (season average 179.8)
  • Touchdowns: 5
  • Interceptions: 4
  • QB rating: 77 (season average 73.7)

Oct 8, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) runs away from the pass rush against the Atlanta Falcons during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

  • Team: Houston Texans
  • Record: 2-2
  • Completion percentage: 62.3% (season average 63.9%)
  • Average yards per game: 303 (season average 273.9)
  • Touchdowns: 6
  • Interceptions: 0
  • QB rating: 100.6 (season average 100.8)

Oct 29, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) and Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) after the game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Out of the 23 quarterbacks since 2011 who started in Week 1 of their rookie season:

  • 3 players had a quarterback rating of over 100 over their first four weeks. 2 of them finished the season above that mark.
  • 15 quarterbacks finished the season with a better quarterback rating than they had for the first four weeks.
  • 8 had their quarterback rating vary less than three points from their first four weeks to their season average.
  • Russell Wilson had the largest quarterback rating improvement, going from 73.5 through four weeks to 100 as a season average. Carson Wentz had the worst, dropping from 103.5 to 79.3.
  • 12 had a completion percentage below 60% to start the season.
  • 10 had a higher completion percentage for the season than they had to start the year.
  • 3 quarterbacks averaged over 300 passing yards over their first four weeks. None of them finished the season above that mark.
  • 7 quarterbacks averaged fewer than 225 passing yards to start the season.
  • 4 quarterbacks finished the season with a higher yards-per-game average than what they had to start the year.
  • 9 quarterbacks threw more touchdowns than interceptions to start the year. 4 of them had one interception or less.
  • 1 quarterback had a record over .500 after their first four games.

LAKE FOREST, ILLINOIS – JUNE 04: Caleb Williams #18 of the Chicago Bears throws a pass during Chicago Bears Minicamp at Halas Hall on June 04, 2024 in Lake Forest, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Just how difficult are the first four weeks of a season for a rookie quarterback? It depends on what data points you’re looking at. Close to half of the quarterbacks improved their completion percentage as the season progressed, while the other half saw it get worse. Interestingly enough, the vast majority of quarterbacks didn’t sustain their yardage totals as the season went on. The most relevant statistics, though, might be quarterback rating and touchdowns to interceptions.

The average quarterback rating among all players through four weeks was 79.5. Most rookies had quarterback ratings below 85 to start the year, which is well below the NFL average. Those ratings were impacted by the touchdown to interception ratio, which unsurprisingly wasn’t stellar. 15 players threw at least four interceptions over the course of their first four games, showing that defenses were capable of making them pay for their mistakes.

The final bit of relevant information is controversial when talking about quarterback statistics, but it deserves a mention. Dak Prescott was the only player to achieve a record better than .500 over his first four games as a professional. Even when players have had hot stretches, like CJ Stroud or Marcus Mariota, the team success wasn’t usually there. That sticks out when looking at what Williams could do with the Bears to start his career.

General manager Ryan Poles has done a phenomenal job on paper with building this roster to complement Williams and bring him along as best as possible. The team has more talent than many of these other rookie quarterbacks had to start their careers. Wins are not THE quarterback stat, but they should be factored in when talking about the complete puzzle. It just shouldn’t hold nearly as much weight as other stats.

If Williams can complete at least 60% of his passes, achieve a quarterback rating of over 80, and limit his interception totals to three or less after four games, he’ll already be in better shape to start the year than many of these quarterbacks before him. But that also goes to show starting off on the right foot isn’t always as easy as it sounds. With the Bears having a tough schedule to end the year, including having to play all of their divisional opponents, getting off to a fast start is paramount and that begins with Williams. We’ll see how the rookie does this September.

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