1 Prediction for Every Team In 2024 NBA Free Agency

With a few contenders possessing max cap space, a number of All-Star players potentially hitting the market and a nice collection of role players available, the 2024 NBA free-agency period is going to be extremely interesting to follow.

Given that we’re only a few weeks out, it’s time to make some predictions.

One star in Los Angeles will head East. A zero-time All-Star will get a $200 million contract. We’ll see the new most expensive deal in NBA history. Dogs and cats living together. It’s time for some mass hysteria.

These are free-agency predictions for all 30 teams.

The Atlanta Hawks feel very unsettled at the moment.

A decision has to be made about the No. 1 overall pick, there’s not even minutes for all the wings on the roster, and the Trae Young-Dejounte Murray combo clearly needs to be split up.

This is also a team projected to land in the luxury tax if no major moves are made.

Atlanta should explore trades with one of its star guards with the goal of better filling out the roster around the other. Reducing salary would allow the Hawks to use the full non-taxpayer mid-level exception of $12.9 million as well.

Before Atlanta starts pursuing free agents, it needs to establish which core players it plans to build around with the help of a trade.

The bad news for the Boston Celtics is that this roster is so expensive that the team will only have veteran minimum deals to use in free agency.

The good news is that there should be no shortage of playable vets who would love to come join Boston’s bench in pursuit of a championship.

Assuming Payton Pritchard and Al Horford are retained, the Celtics should be pursuing wings who can play and defend multiple positions.

This is a list that could include players like Nicolas Batum, Gordon Hayward, Jae Crowder and Robert Covington, some of whom have already spent time in Beantown.

This is going to largely be the same core coming back next season, with a few veteran signings sprinkled in.

The Brooklyn Nets have clearly been eyeing the 2025 free-agent class for a while.

Players such as Jayson Tatum, Donovan Mitchell, Jimmy Butler, Jalen Brunson, Brandon Ingram, Jamal Murray, Derrick White and others could all become available, making this potentially the strongest class we’ve had in a long time.

Before a new deal for Nic Claxton is factored in, the Nets have a whopping $73 million in potential cap space in 2025. Ben Simmons ($40.3 million) and Dennis Schröder ($13 million) will see their contracts come off the books, and Brooklyn can save another $15.4 million by trading Dorian Finney-Smith at some point before next summer.

It’s probably no coincidence that even Cameron Johnson’s contract dips slightly in 2025-26 before jumping back up the following year.

Expect the Nets to keep their cap space open for next summer, with Claxton serving as the only free agent to sign a multi-year deal.

There’s an argument for the Charlotte Hornets to keep Dāvis Bertāns, as the veteran forward is a proven floor-spacer with a career 39.6 percent mark from three. His $16 million expiring salary could be used as a money-matcher in a potential trade as well.

The safe bet, though, is to waive Bertāns and his partially guaranteed deal so that the Hornets can become a real player in free agency now.

Only $5.25 million of Bertāns’ $16 million contract is guaranteed, meaning Charlotte gets nearly $10.8 million in additional cap space by parting with the 32-year-old.

The Hornets can get all the way to $33.8 million in cap space this summer, enough to bring in some significant help next to LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Mark Williams and whoever the team selects at No. 6 overall.

The days of DeMar DeRozan in a Chicago Bulls uniform will quickly be coming to an end.

Re-signing with the Bulls just to lose in the play-in tournament again shouldn’t be appealing to DeRozan, who could still find a payday with teams like the Philadelphia 76ers or Orlando Magic and have a better chance to win.

A sign-and-trade may be the best option for both parties, though.

Losing DeRozan for nothing would sting for Chicago, especially since the team still owes the San Antonio Spurs a protected first-round pick in 2025 for the trade that brought him to the Bulls in 2021. He would have far more options and wouldn’t be limited to teams with cap space.

The Bulls should take a page out of the Spurs’ playbook, looking to move DeRozan to a contender while getting some players or draft assets back in return.

Retaining Isaac Okoro is going to be an important part of the Cleveland Cavaliers’ offseason.

Both sides failed to come to an agreement on an extension last offseason, making Okoro a restricted free agent now. It’s possible a team with cap space could make the 23-year-old an offer above what the Cavs are comfortable matching, especially since Cleveland projects to be just $10.3 million below the luxury tax.

A contract similar to what the Dallas Mavericks gave Josh Green last year (three years, $41 million) seems like fair value for both sides.

Okoro is the Cavs’ best perimeter defender, a solid cutter and scorer in transition. Don’t let his 39.1 percent mark from three deceive you, though. Teams regularly leave him open from deep and the young wing made just 25.7 percent of his threes during the playoffs. There’s a real chance that this part of his game never develops.

Expect the Cavs to bring Okoro back for slightly less than the full non-taxpayer mid-level exception.

Playing for his sixth team in eight seasons, Derrick Jones Jr. has found the best version of himself now with these Dallas Mavericks. He’s played so well that it’s tough to imagine the Mavs being able to afford him, though.

The 27-year-old averaged 8.6 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.0 assists and shot a career-high 34.3 percent from three, starting 66 of his 76 games for Dallas.

Since he signed a one-year, minimum deal before the season, the Mavs don’t have his Bird rights and can only offer their taxpayer mid-level exception of $5.2 million.

As much as he’d like to stay in Dallas, Jones should take the opportunity to cash in now while his stock is high.

Both Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($15.4 million) and Reggie Jackson ($5.3 million) carry player options for next season. Expect them to make different decisions on what to do with them.

Caldwell-Pope is going to get a lot of attention as an unrestricted free agent.

The 31-year-old is an easy plug-and-play option into any contender’s starting lineup. He had the second-highest swing rating of any Denver Nugget last season (plus-15.8), making an impact on both ends while shooting 40.6 percent from three.

Denver may ultimately re-sign him, but expect Caldwell-Pope to at least test the market first.

Jackson was solid for the Nuggets, filling in as a spot starter for Jamal Murray for 23 games. Now 34, though, he should be happy with his salary and situation for next season.

The Detroit Pistons are positioned to be big spenders this summer.

They can get to $68.5 million in cap space with new president of basketball operations Trajan Langdon looking to upgrade a roster that won an NBA-low 14 games last season.

This isn’t a landing spot for players like LeBron James or Paul George, but those in the second or third tier of stars should be eyeing Detroit and its cap space.

Whether it be Tobias Harris, Malik Monk, Kelly Oubre Jr., Buddy Hield, Gary Harris or another veteran, the Pistons will find a new addition to their starting lineup in free agency.

Klay Thompson’s posturing has begun, as the Golden State Warriors star’s recent social media cleanse has wiped away much of his content related to the team.

In the end, the 34-year-old isn’t going anywhere.

Stephen Curry is under contract for two more years. Draymond Green has two years and a player option. The Warriors aren’t going to be able to afford to sign a replacement as good as Thompson in free agency, and both sides know it.

There’s going to be a lot of back and forth concerning money, how Golden State can re-sign Thompson while dodging the luxury tax, length of deal, player vs. team options and other factors.

Thompson will get a new contract and (exhales deeply) follow the Warriors on Instagram again.

Jeff Green and Jock Landale both signed unique contracts with the Houston Rockets last offseason.

Green’s two-year, $16 million deal and Landale’s four-year, $32 million contract were both guaranteed for only one year, with Houston having the option to decline both if it wanted the extra cap space instead.

Neither player is worth $8 million per year, yet the Rockets should want to guarantee both contracts for next season for trade flexibility.

If the team goes star-chasing, they’ll need money to send out in return. Having both players on the roster gives Houston $16 million in expiring contracts to send, already getting them close to a player like Mikal Bridges’ $23.3 million salary number.

The Rockets won’t even have significant cap space to spend if both players are waived ($8 million). Keeping both, even at their high numbers, is the smart thing to do.

Pascal Siakam probably isn’t a max player, but he’s going to get paid like one this offseason.

The 30-year-old forward can get the biggest deal from Indiana (five years, $245 million) and wants to return to the Pacers, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic and Stadium.

Indiana almost certainly knew what the price would be to keep him on a new deal before agreeing to part with three first-round picks and Bruce Brown in a trade.

Siakam leaving in free agency would be a disaster for a young Pacers team on the rise. Overpay or not, he will be back.

Editor’s note: ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski subsequently reported Siakam is expected to sign a four-year, $189.5 million max with Indiana.

James Harden’s $35.6 million contract he played under this season is going to be far greater than the new deal he signs this summer.

He is going to turn 35 in August and while the Los Angeles Clippers should want him back, the 10-time All-Star doesn’t have a ton of leverage heading into free agency.

Paul George can use contenders with cap space to try to get a max deal from Los Angeles, threatening to leave for the Philadelphia 76ers or Orlando Magic. Harden obviously isn’t going back to Philly, Orlando doesn’t seem like a systematic fit and he’s not going to sign with a rebuilding team like the Detroit Pistons or Utah Jazz.

In the end, look for Harden to take a pay cut of $10 million, signing a new multi-year deal worth around $25 million per season.

LeBron James returning to the Los Angeles Lakers isn’t necessarily a lock, although he can still get the most money from L.A., and the Lakers have some assets to improve the roster around him.

Outside of pushing for a trade to a contender, re-signing with the Lakers or joining the Philadelphia 76ers are his only real options.

James will decline his player option and sign a new three-year, $162 million deal, the most he can get given the over-38 rule. By opting out instead of extending off his player option, he gives up about $2.3 million in total money yet gets to negotiate a no-trade clause into the deal.

The Lakers don’t really have any other option here.

The 39-year-old is still the best player on the roster, even if the team doesn’t look championship-ready. Trading James is an option, but it’s tough to get a feel for an appropriate return given his age and possible retirement looming.

Expect James to re-sign on one last max deal.

The Memphis Grizzlies are already projected to be about $7 million over the luxury tax while accounting for this year’s No. 9 overall pick’s salary but not with any additional free-agent signings.

Luke Kennard’s $14.8 million team option could be the difference in whether this team pays luxury tax or not.

Memphis shouldn’t want to cut ties with the 27-year-old completely. He has led the NBA in three-point shooting two of the past three years, finishing second to Grayson Allen this past season. He’s a career 43.9 percent marksman from deep and has upped this number to 45.9 percent over the past four years.

The Grizzlies will decline Kennard’s team option with the understanding that both sides will agree to a new multi-year deal starting at a smaller number.

Kennard getting a three-year, $30 million contract would give him more than $15 million in new money while also getting the Grizzlies close to ducking under the tax line.

The Miami Heat will be flirting with the second apron luxury-tax line going into next season and have a number of players (Caleb Martin, Kevin Love, Josh Richardson, Thomas Bryant) who carry player options for 2024-25.

The most important of this group is Martin, who averaged 10.4 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists and shot 39.0 percent from three in his 23 starts.

His $7.1 million player option for next year isn’t going to be enough. Like Max Strus and Gabe Vincent last year, another role player in Miami is going to be too expensive to keep.

Martin should be able to get the full $12.9 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception from some wing-needy contender, a number that would put the Heat into the second apron.

After playing on a veteran minimum contract this past season, Malik Beasley worked his way into a big raise this summer.

The 27-year-old played 79 of 82 games, averaging 11.3 points and shooting a career-high 41.3 percent from three. The Milwaukee Bucks don’t have any cap space or exceptions to re-sign him with, meaning he could only return on another vet minimum deal.

The Florida State product was willing to take a hit in salary this past season to get his value back up and play for a contender, yet he isn’t at the stage of his career where he’ll be willing to do this again.

Beasley will leave to sign with a team that can offer him real money instead.

As with the previous two teams, the Minnesota Timberwolves are another franchise where rising roster costs and luxury-tax concerns will hurt its ability to retain talent.

Kyle Anderson was an important piece of the Wolves rotation the past two years, averaging 7.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.0 steals and shooting 35.3 percent from three with Minnesota. He was a vocal leader on both ends, getting guys into their spots and filling in as a starter when needed.

Minnesota is already projected to be $6.7 million above the second apron, though, and the 30-year-old should be seeking a salary around the full non-taxpayer mid-level exception of $12.9 million.

Unless the team makes some sort of dynamic move (a Karl-Anthony Towns trade), there’s no way the Wolves can afford to bring Anderson back.

The awkward frontcourt fit between Zion Williamson and Jonas Valančiūnas combined with the New Orleans Pelicans roster getting close to the luxury-tax line will mean an end to the latter’s time with the franchise.

Valančiūnas, 32, should be ready to pursue a new home as well, given that his minutes and role have decreased each of the last three seasons.

The Pelicans need more spacing at the center position next to Williamson, an area they could address with the 21st overall pick or in a Brandon Ingram trade.

It’s time both Valančiūnas and New Orleans went their separate ways.

Remember when the $100 million number next to Jalen Brunson’s name caused many to do a double take? Imagine what the reaction will be when Anunoby gets $200 million this summer.

An average of $40 million a year on a new five-year contract seems like a lot for a player who averaged a modest 14.1 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1.5 assists in his 34.9 minutes a game following a trade to the New York Knicks.

Given his impact on winning (20-3 record with the Knicks), leverage he can get from other teams with max cap space (hello, Philadelphia 76ers) and that his agent, Sam Rose, also represents Brunson and is the son of Knicks president Leon Rose, it’s safe to say Anunoby is going to get paid.

While getting Anunoby for $30 million per season would have been the dream for New York, expect the 26-year-old to sign a five-year, $200 million contract instead.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have two more seasons until their roster gets ridiculously expensive, as players like Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams will be due for extensions in 2026.

This means the Thunder can still splurge on free agents for one or two more summers and open up to $33 million in space now.

Chasing a big free agent (Paul George, Nic Claxton, Tobias Harris) is an option, but OKC should be careful not to stunt the growth of the terrific core that’s already been assembled.

Expect Sam Presti to chase veterans on one- or two-year deals who can play off the bench in specialty roles. This could include players such as Gary Harris, Nic Batum, Kyle Anderson or Andre Drummond, giving the Thunder some additional depth and matchup possibilities while not filling up their future cap sheets.

The Orlando Magic should be aggressive in free agency as one of only two teams (along with the Philadelphia 76ers) to have max cap space and be coming off a playoff appearance.

The Magic need offensive help after ranking 22nd last season, the worst mark of any postseason team. There’s a potential opening in the backcourt next to Jalen Suggs, especially for someone who can bring some scoring or playmaking chops to the position.

This is an ideal landing spot for players like Paul George, Malik Monk, Immanuel Quickley, Tyus Jones or even Klay Thompson.

Thanks to their cap space and ascension in the East, the Magic will land a starting-caliber guard in free agency.

In a perfect world, Paul George would stay in Los Angeles, get a max contract and compete for championships with a healthy Kawhi Leonard.

Five years into their partnership, though, Leonard is consistently hurt during the postseason and the Clippers have refused to give George the max.

Add in Joel Embiid’s obvious recruitment of George and George’s compliments about Embiid, and there’s more than just a little smoke here.

George, 34, will leave the Clippers to sign a four-year, $213 million max deal with the Sixers, creating the NBA’s newest Big Three alongside Embiid and Tyrese Maxey.

The 2023-24 Golden State Warriors are the most expensive team to date, with $206.8 million in player salaries.

The 2024-25 Phoenix Suns are about to blow by this number by a significant amount.

Already with $208.9 million in projected salaries for next season, they are going to give Royce O’Neale a hefty new contract as well. Michael Scotto of HoopsHype reported that the 31-year-old is going to get $10 million annually on a new deal.

This would put Phoenix around $220 million in salary alone, adding on to a luxury-tax bill that already stands at $119.7 million.

With a new contract for O’Neale, the Suns could be paying more in luxury tax than some teams spend on their entire roster.

Unless some trades are made, the Portland Trail Blazers may not have room to sign a free agent this summer.

Portland currently has 14 players on its roster (although three have a non-guaranteed salary or team option) and four selections in the 2024 draft, including two lottery picks.

Some consolidation will be needed even before accounting for free agents.

There’s a real chance the Blazers aren’t able to sign anyone, especially if they keep all four draft picks and don’t trade veterans such as Jerami Grant or Malcolm Brogdon this offseason.

Signing a two-year contract as an unrestricted free agent in 2022 means the Sacramento Kings only have “Early Bird” rights on Malik Monk, limiting what the team can pay him without using cap space.

A four-year, $78 million contract is a ton of money for someone who was playing on a minimum deal with the Los Angeles Lakers a few years ago, but there’s a real chance another team will top this in free agency.

Teams like the Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers and Detroit Pistons will have max cap space and could use the 26-year-old as a starting two guard who can score and handle the ball.

The Kings will offer Monk every penny they can, but they will understand when he inevitably leaves for a bigger payday.

The San Antonio Spurs only project to have about $7 million in cap space this summer, yet they can open up another $9.8 million by waiving Devonte’ Graham.

Only $2.9 million of his $12.7 million contract is guaranteed for the 2024-25 season. The 29-year-old averaged just 5.0 points and 2.1 assists on 35.2 percent shooting in his 13.6 minutes this past year and isn’t part of the Spurs’ future.

Keeping Graham would give San Antonio some money to match salaries with in potential trades, yet this should be a desirable landing spot in free agency for players who want to join a generational prospect like Victor Wembanyama.

San Antonio will waive Graham, eat his $2.9 million and collect the nearly $10 million in cap space instead.

The play of Immanuel Quickley went largely unnoticed following his trade to the Toronto Raptors, especially with the team actively tanking in the final few months in an attempt to keep its first-round pick.

Teams with cap space and a need at guard were paying attention, though, as the 25-year-old played himself into a huge contract this summer.

Averages of 18.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 6.8 assists and a 39.5 percent mark from three as the team’s starting point guard are going to lead to some massive offer sheets in restricted free agency if the Raptors don’t give him the contract he wants.

Don’t be surprised if Quickley gets $30 million annually on a new deal, although Toronto will ultimately match whatever he gets.

Much like we saw with Domantas Sabonis and the Sacramento Kings last year, expect the Utah Jazz to use their cap space on their own player.

Markkanen is entering the final year of his deal, one that pays him just $18 million. Extending off this number would still be too low for the All-Star forward, especially since he may get a max deal as an unrestricted free agent in 2025.

As Bleacher Report’s Eric Pincus wrote, “Utah can be creative in how it pays the 27-year-old, giving him an immediate raise to $33.2-$42.3 million and an extension starting at the projected max of $46.5 million for 2025-26.”

The Jazz could still have around $9 million in cap space even with Markkanen’s new deal, along with their $8 million room mid-level exception.

Tyus Jones may not have a long-term home with the Washington Wizards, but it does the franchise no good to see him walk for nothing, either.

If the 28-year-old wants to get more than the non-taxpayer mid-level exception and the Wizards want to keep an asset, he will re-sign.

Something in the neighborhood of three years and $50 million-$60 million seems about right, with a contract that decreases each year like the one Kyle Kuzma signed with Washington last summer.

This would allow the Wizards to shop Jones at a later date and for the veteran point guard to get a raise from his $14 million salary now.