How often do NBA lottery picks hit? Plus, Cavaliers hire Kenny Atkinson as head coach

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Don’t forget the first round of the NBA Draft is on Wednesday!

Lottery History

Do these lotto teams typically draft well?

As our incredible NFL newsletter Scoop City led up to April’s NFL Draft, author Jacob Robinson did something I absolutely loved. He looked at how often receivers, quarterbacks and other positions are successful draft picks. I saw those breakdowns and thought one thing: “I need to steal that.” So, I did! And I’m using the approach to bring us to Wednesday’s 2024 NBA Draft lottery picks. We’re doing a handful of such teams per day.

This is the twist we’ll apply to it, though: We’ll see how this year’s lottery teams have found draft success in the lottery since 2004 (when the league started trending away from 78-74 final scores). I attempted to weigh these categories: a player’s total appearances (400 games is the baseline), All-Star appearances, second and third contracts (preferably with the drafting team), accolades and significant stats with their original team.

Here’s the breakdown of the possible rulings on each pick, based on how many of those above categories demonstrated success:

• Superbust: 0/5 – It was a mind-boggling decision.
• Bust: 1/5 – The selection didn’t work out.
• Reach: 2/5 – The prospect probably wouldn’t get you fired.
• Good pick: 3/5 – It was a highly defensible decision.
• Star: 4/5 – You’re getting a raise.
• Superstar: 5/5 – Wait … you’re a damn genius!

Note: If a player ends up with an overwhelming number of games (700 or more) or has big moments throughout their career, their score increases a notch or two. There will also be a downgrade in harshness on grades later in the lottery. And if a recent player (last two or three years of draft) doesn’t have a clear path yet, we left them out of the grading. We also made some assumptions with certain current young players (Wemby, Chet, etc.).

Sacramento Kings – 13th pick in 2024

It’s worth noting Sacramento’s current front office, with Monte McNair and company at the helm, is a far cry from its Vlade Divac days. This iteration has a much better track record already, even though Divac did get De’Aaron Fox in 2016. During the dark days of the Maloofs and the first few years of Vivek Ranadive owning the team, the Kings had tough times in the lottery. Here’s their breakdown of over a dozen lottery selections:

Sure, selecting Thomas Robinson (2012), Ben McLemore (2013), Nik Stauskas (2014), and Georgios Papagiannis in 2016 (I never got the chance to make his nickname “Daddytekounmpo” take off) hurt this chart considerably. Tyrese Haliburton (2020) is counting as a superstar for the Kings, but they obviously traded him for All-NBA center Domantas Sabonis. Fox needs another All-NBA selection to jump from star to superstar, which is fair to quibble over if you’re a Kings fan. And I’m already counting Keegan Murray (2022) as a good pick. Davion Mitchell (2020) was omitted, but he’s looking like a reach. McNair should be able to find a rotation player if they keep the pick.

Oklahoma City Thunder – 12th pick

Once Sam Presti took over in 2007, as the Sonics were rudely ripped from Seattle, things clearly got a lot better. The team had a dozen lottery picks from 2004 to 2023, and Presti has produced some bangers. Even though this draft isn’t likely to yield a star – and we’ve seen Presti miss on some later first-round picks (**cough** Poku in 2021! **cough**) – I’d expect him to nail a pick if the Thunder keep it.

The Robert Swift (2004) and Mouhamed Sene (2006) picks get lumped in due to time frame. Afterward, though, Presti came in and rattled off three straight Hall of Fame superstar picks with Kevin Durant (2007), Russell Westbrook (2008) and James Harden (2009). He’s added Chet Holmgren (2022) and Jalen Williams (2022) recently, and I’m already counting them as at least stars. Cole Aldrich (2010) and Cameron Payne (2015), were the only busts, and that felt like a stretch.

Let’s break for some news from Shams, and then we’ll get back to it.

The Latest From Shams

Cavs hiring Atkinson; update on Mitchell

Here’s the latest on what’s going on Cleveland, from Joe Vardon, Jason Lloyd and me:

The Cavaliers are hiring Warriors assistant Kenny Atkinson as their next coach and are working to secure a lucrative contract extension with All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell, according to league sources. Atkinson, 57, beat out Pelicans associate head coach James Borrego for the team’s head coaching job, league sources told The Athletic, in a process that had not concluded heading into the weekend. Atkinson’s contract is not yet complete, league sources said.

While working toward hiring Atkinson, the team’s executives are set to present a four-year, $209 million maximum contract to Mitchell, team and league sources said.

Lottery History Cont.

What about the Jazz and Bulls?

Let’s move on to Utah and Chicago. The Jazz have the 10th pick in this year’s draft, while Chicago will pick 11th. We’ve seen the Jazz thrive with Deron Williams (2005) as a pick. The Bulls hit a home run with Derrick Rose (2008). Let’s go over how often they’re correct, though.

Chicago Bulls – 11th pick

We don’t have much to go off of with executive Artūras Karnišovas because he’s only had one lottery pick since taking over. That was Patrick Williams in 2020. He traded away picks for Nikola Vučević, so we just have the Reinsdorf history prior to that. The Gar Forman era before that was pretty rough.

Rose was clearly the pick of all picks for them, especially with him being a hometown kid. Lauri Markannen (2017) ended up being an All-Star, but not with the Bulls. Joakim Noah (2007) was a great pick for them a long time ago, but this franchise has been devoid of quality lottery pick selections for quite some time and needs to get someone who sticks here.

Utah Jazz – 10th pick

Year in and year out, the Jazz have just been a really well-run organization capable of drafting well. They rarely miss on a prospect, and we rarely see them end up with someone who can’t fit in the rotation for years. Even better, though: Deron Williams and Donovan Mitchell (2017) are their best lottery stories, but late first-round picks like Rudy Gobert (2013) have been massive feathers in their cap. How will Danny Ainge and company run it this time round?

The only real bust in nearly a dozen selections was Dante Exum (2014) due to injury, and the reaches were Trey Burke (2013) and Trey Lyles (2015). Exum is mounting a comeback and might not be a bad role player with Dallas or someone else in the future. And Lyles is carving out a good role for himself in Sacramento. Gordon Hayward (2010) surprisingly has few accolades and one All-Star appearance, so he was just a good pick.

Tomorrow’s teams: Grizzlies, Blazers, Hornets, Pistons.

Prospect Watch

Here are two I love from this draft class

I’ve been poring over Sam Vecenie’s Draft Guide (go download it!) over the weekend, and I thought I’d share some prospects who caught my eye throughout the season and this pre-draft process. We’ll look at two prospects a day leading up to Wednesday’s first round.

Cody Williams | 6-7 | 7-1 wingspan | Wing | Colorado

What I love about his game: He has long strides, a long wingspan, and the ability to cover a lot of ground when attacking the basket. He can really finish around the rim.

Something that worries me: We missed seeing him go on a big run because of the ankle injury, and I’m not sure he can actually shoot from deep.

Is there a decent comp? Is it lazy to say his brother, the Thunder’s 23-year-old Jalen Williams, is a best-case scenario for him? Is that unfair to say? I’m gonna say it.

Nikola Topić | 6-6 | 6-6 wingspan | PG | Serbia

What I love about his game: He is tall for a point guard, which we love, and he is an exceptional passer. The jumper is a little touchy, but Topić makes shots and free throws.

Something that worries me: He recently tore part of his ACL, and it’s fair to wonder if his relatively poor athleticism and short arms will doom him at the NBA level.

Is there a decent comp? I don’t want to get burned at the stake in Europe when I visit, but there’s a little bit of Miloš Teodosić in his passing ability. Topić has a long way to go, but he can sling the rock.

Bounce Passes

Fred Katz is roasting your Knicks trade suggestions. Or celebrating them!

Here’s Seth Partnow’s Tiers project with your Tier 1 superstars.

David Aldridge has the skinny on the class in this draft maybe not being that bad.

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(Top photo: Jeff Haynes / Getty Images )