NFL Analyst Expects Breakout Season For Chargers Running Back

After watching Austin Ekeler depart in free agency, the Los Angeles Chargers brought in running back Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins to handle arguably the most valuable position in fantasy football. Everyone in the league knows Jim Harbaugh wants to run the football, so the starting running back should carry some fantasy value. While most believe Gus Edwards, fresh off a 13-touchdown season, will retain starting duties, one notable analyst believes Dobbins will be the man to roster in fantasy leagues.

During a recent appearance on the Move the Sticks podcast, longtime NFL analyst Daniel Jeremiah spoke about why he believes J.K. Dobbins is the player fantasy football owners should target in the Chargers backfield.

“If you’re getting ready for your fantasy football season, draft J.K. Dobbins,” Jeremiah said. “J.K. Dobbins, when he’s been healthy has been really good. J.K. Dobbins has zero adjustments to the offense.”

Daniel Jeremiah: Draft J.K. Dobbins In Fantasy Football

Jeremiah makes some decent points, although one could easily say he’s a little too optimistic about what Dobbins can do for fantasy football. The former second-round pick has been one of the league’s more efficient runners when healthy, averaging 5.8 yards per carry throughout his career. Additionally, he spent the early part of his career playing in Greg Roman’s offense, so the running back should be familiar with the new terminology and shouldn’t need much time to adjust to Los Angeles.

Unfortunately, some glaring red flags could keep J.K. Dobbins from reaching his fantasy football ceiling. First and foremost is the injuries. The NFL is a physical game and, generally speaking, injuries have more to do with poor luck than a physical inability to stay on the field. However, there are exceptions to this rule, and the fact of the matter is that Dobbins has not stayed healthy since his rookie season back in 2020. The best ability is availability, and Dobbins seems incapable of handling a sizable workload.

Even if he stays healthy, Dobbins must prove he can return to form following his season-ending Achilles injury. Historically speaking, Achilles injuries are a kiss of death for running backs, as the ailment saps away the explosion running backs need to burst out of their cuts. The closest thing we have to a post-Achilles success story is former third-round pick D’Onta Foreman, who bounced around the league before finding some success filling in for an injured Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey in 2021 and 2022. For context, Foreman tore his Achilles in 2017.

Show Me the Money

While it’s impossible to know exactly how teams plan to utilize certain players, looking at contracts can usually give a decent idea. Los Angeles signed Edwards and Dobbins to new deals in the offseason but the size of the deals imply that Gus Edwards is the guy to own in fantasy football. Despite lacking cap space then, Los Angeles went out of their way to sign Edwards to a respectable two-year, $6.5 million contract, while Dobbins only received a one-year, $1.6 million deal.

No team likes to waste money, so Edwards will have the first shot at starting duties. Additionally, Chargers General Manager Joe Hortiz called Edwards a “bell cow,” signifying he will be the Week 1 starter. Perhaps Dobbins regains his old form and beats out Edwards, but the odds are not in his favor.

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