Weekend Racing including Northumberland Plate tips and Irish Derby

What’s your angle in the Northumberland Plate?

John Ingles: Plenty with chances but a couple who could outrun their odds are Spirit Mixer and Solent Gateway. They were placed behind Trueshan when he carried that massive weight to victory in this two years ago so they’re proven in this race. Admittedly neither of them covered themselves in glory in the Chester Cup but they’ve both performed much better since and could make the frame again at decent odds.

Ben Linfoot: Plenty of form to go through in this race yet but from the top of the market my eye is immediately drawn to Grand Providence who was taken out of Royal Ascot due to the fast ground. She is a stayer with more to offer this season and she is unexposed on the all-weather after just three starts on an artificial surface – the first three of her career. She might just love it, though, as Nathaniel progeny have an excellent record over 2m+ on the Newcastle Tapeta, winning 8 from 45 at 18% including seven individual winners (one of them, Caravan Of Hope, winning this race).

Tony McFadden: Duke of Oxford was down the field in the Chester Cup last time but he had also been well beaten on his two previous efforts on turf and it could be the case that he’s more effective on the all-weather. It’s certainly difficult to knock his record on the all-weather as he won four of his seven starts on a synthetic surface last year and produced good placed efforts on both outings over this course and distance in 2024. On his penultimate start he was runner-up in the All-Weather Championships Marathon and can have that effort marked up as he fared comfortably best of those held up in a race run at a steady gallop. There should be a better pace to chase in the Northumberland Plate – Timeform’s forecast is for an even gallop – and that could help Duke of Oxford to raise his game.

Kinross a fascinating runner in the Chipchase Stakes – are you for or against?

John Ingles: This is an easier option than the alternative at Royal Ascot last Saturday but he’s been worth opposing first-time out in recent seasons and you suspect he’s warming up for another crack at the Lennox at Goodwood. William Haggas won this last year and has Montassib this time who made a winning debut at this track but preference is for Spycatcher who was only beaten a neck in this last year and could be worth forgiving his latest run.

Ben Linfoot: If Kinross is vulnerable it’s because he is first time out as he has been beaten on his seasonal reappearance in his last four seasons and he always comes on for a run. However, he has a very good chance at the weights and he could be half a stone off his peak and win this, especially as he escapes a Group 1 penalty. He should be fine on the surface and if I do end up taking him on it wouldn’t be with a great deal of confidence as the stiff six at this track could very much play to his strengths, as well.

Tony McFadden: Kinross has a class edge over his rivals – he’s 4lb clear on Timeform’s figures – and he can make that tell. It’s true that his rating derives from his efforts on turf, but he’s not had the opportunity to run on the all-weather since he registered a ready success in listed company at Kempton in November 2020, putting in a performance which prompted Timeform’s reporter to say he won “looking a natural on all-weather having just his second start on such a surface”. That win was over a mile but Kinross has shown he’s effective at six furlongs given a test at the trip (he won the 2022 Champions Sprint Stakes and was runner-up last year) so he should be fine over Newcastle’s stiff straight course. He’s yet to win on his seasonal reappearance (other than on his debut) but showed smart form when only narrowly denied in the John of Gaunt Stakes at Haydock a couple of years ago.

Will you be backing Emily Upjohn to bounce back in the G1 Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh on Saturday?

John Ingles: She’s the class act but while you can make excuses for her last run it’s a while now since she produced her high-class best. Bluestocking, on the other hand, looks an improved filly this year judged on her clear-cut win from Emily Upjohn’s stablemate Free Wind in the Middleton at York so she looks the one to be with.

Ben Linfoot: Emily Upjohn has previously been denied a run at the Curragh due to her plane being grounded due to a bird strike so she is due some luck travelling over there at the very least! As for her form on the track she is quite clearly the one to beat on her very best form, but that form is over a year ago now and it was over 1m4f. Perhaps she’ll settle better dropping back to 10 furlongs but Bluestocking looks an improved filly this season and after shaking off her seconditus at York she looks well placed to lay down a bold challenge.

Tony McFadden: The form Emily Upjohn showed when winning the Coronation Cup and finishing runner-up in the Eclipse last season is the best on offer – she’s 5lb clear on Timeform ratings – but she’s not been at her best on either start this season and was especially disappointing when bidding to retain the Coronation Cup last time. She had excuses as the ground was slower than ideal, she failed to settle off a steady pace and she was probably short of peak fitness, but I’d like to have seen more and would be leaning towards market rival Bluestocking who was so impressive on her return in the Middleton Stakes at York.

Irish Derby day at the Curragh on Sunday – who’s your fancy in the feature?

John Ingles: It looks an interesting rematch between the placed pair from Epsom and this galloping track should bring out the best in Los Angeles who looks a strong stayer and can improve past Ambiente Friendly this time.

Ben Linfoot: The market tells you this is an excellent opportunity for Ambiente Friendly and I think he’ll get the job done. His spring form was franked at Royal Ascot by Jayarebe and Illinois and I expect him to confirm the Derby form with Los Angeles who looks his biggest danger. With City Of Troy back on track to being something special it wouldn’t be a surprise to see his form boosted throughout the summer and Ambiente Friendly can give the Derby form a stronger look come Sunday afternoon.

Tony McFadden: I’d underestimated Ambiente Friendly going into the Derby but he impressed with how he tanked through the race at Epsom and would have been a good winner had City of Troy not been there, while the form of his wide-margin success in the Lingfield Derby Trial was given a boost by Illinois landing the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot. He’s proved a different proposition since stepping up to a mile and a half and can again finish in advance of Los Angeles who was three and a quarter lengths behind him in the Derby.

Finally, give us a juvenile to look out for at the Curragh this weekend…

John Ingles: I’m looking forward to the fillies’ maiden on Friday evening. Aidan O’Brien has regularly run his best fillies in this race, including future classic winners Love, Snowfall and Tuesday to name just three. His two runners last year, Ylang Ylang, who won it, and Opera Singer, both ended the season as Group 1 winners. The Ballydoyle newcomers this year, Lake Victoria and Exactly, are both daughters of Frankel and Ryan Moore has opted for the former, so she could prove one to follow.

Ben Linfoot: I think there’s plenty more to come from American Bar who created a favourable impression when winning the fillies maiden at Listowel on June 2. Paddy Twomey’s filly may want a little bit further as the season progresses but the Group 2 Airlie Stud Stakes looks a good next step for her and her Listowel win has been boosted by the fourth, Merrily, who came out and won a Naas maiden, while the second home wasn’t disgraced in the Albany.

Tony McFadden: The opening seven-furlong maiden at the Curragh on Saturday was won by City of Troy last year, so there will be plenty of interest in Aidan O’Brien’s three representatives this time around. The choice of Ryan Moore is Rock of Cashel who is by Wootton Bassett and out of Group 3 winner Best In The World who is a sister to Arc winner Found. Best In The World has already produced a classic winner in Snowfall, so there will be plenty of interest in how Rock of Cashel fares in this strong maiden that features some expensive and well-bred colts from top yards.

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