After three days of counting, clear winners and losers emerge in local and European elections

Most reporters and political anoraks who have been involved in the past three full days of counting now feel like the characters of the classic 1970s film They Shoot Horses Don’t They, starring Jane Fonda, which portrayed people involved in a marathon dance competition that went on for many days during the Great Depression in the US.

Finally, though, we are seeing a bit of light at the end of the tunnel.

We are down to the last handful of seats of the 949 in county and city councils around the State.

The first counts of all three European Parliament constituencies have been declared.

And John Moran looks uncatchable by his rivals in the race to become the first ever executive mayor of Limerick.

Here is our main report on the elections from this morning. Here is today’s live story with all of the latest results.

The overall picture this morning

It has been a good election both at local level and at European level for the two main Government parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

It’s been a terrible election for Sinn Féin. That can’t be glossed over. The party has just slumped in the past few months after riding high in opinion polls for almost four years.

Both smaller left-of-centre parties, Labour and the Social Democrats, have done exceedingly well.

Not so for the Greens. It has lost over half its council seats and is struggling in Europe. It wasn’t a wipe out and the party can take consolation from some key wins.

Independents have done well in both locals and Europeans.

Five avowedly anti-migrant right-wing councillors have been elected, all of them in Dublin. However, against that there are at least 25 new councillors who have an ethnic background.

And it’s looking great for John Moran who received 18,000 first preferences in the Limerick mayoral election. He’s not going to be caught, as he’s still over 5,000 votes ahead of his nearest rival, Helen O’Donnell.

European elections

Sean Kelly is the first MEP to be elected after a superb performance in Ireland South. His party, Fine Gael, will win four seats out of fourteen, with both Maria Walsh and Nina Carberry (it shows you the power of celebrity) more or less shoo-ins to take two seats in Midlands North West (MWN).

Fianna Fáil will win a seat in each constituency, including Barry Cowen, who will become its first MEP in MNW in ten years. Plus Cynthia Ní Mhurchú has polled very strongly and is in the mix to win a second seat for the party in Ireland South, alongside Billy Kelleher. Barry Andrews has topped the poll in Dublin.

Sinn Féin is going to lose its MEP in MNW, which should be its strongest constituency. Its candidates, Michelle Gildernew and Chris MacManus collected little more than 70,000 votes between them, which puts the party nowhere near winning a seat.

It’s in a battle for survival in the other two constituencies.

Both Green MEPs are in peril of losing their seats but neither can be ruled out. Ciarán Cuffe might harbour hope of retaining his seat if he can stay ahead of Aodhán Ó Riordáin.

MNW looks the easiest to predict. Four candidates look like they are more or less nailed-on: that’s Luke Ming Flanagan (Ind); Barry Cowen (FF); Nina Carberry (FG) and Maria Walsh (FG).

They have each polled over 70,000 votes and are 15,000 votes ahead of the next nearest rival, Ciaran Mullooly (with 57,000) and another 10,000 ahead of the next best placed.

That’s the order it is likely to remain although it will take more than 20 counts to confirm that.

In Ireland South, Michael McNamara (Ind) and the surprise package, Fianna Fáil’s Cynthia Ní Mhurchú, could be slightly ahead of rivals, Grace O’Sullivan (GP) and Mick Wallace (Ind) are also in the mix. All of those candidates have between 46,000 and 56,000 votes.

Dublin cycled very quickly through the counts before suspending after the 13th count.

We have full details of all 13 counts here.

Ten candidates out of the 23 now remain in the battle for the four seats with nobody close yet to the quota of 75,000, although Barry Andrews and Regina Doherty will not be overtaken.

The big mover in the early counts has been Niall Boylan. That is not surprising as some of the candidates have come from the right-wing and anti-migration camps. Boylan has added almost 10,000 votes to his first count total of 30,637 and now stands at 39,615 and is now lying in third position, ahead of Sinn Féin’s Lynn Boylan (37,847).

However, Daithí Doolan of Sinn Féin (11,822) has been eliminated. When the recount resumes this morning, his transfers should take Lynn Boylan well above 40,000.

Niall Boylan could benefit from some of Aontú’s Aisling Considine’s transfers. She is currently just short of 14,000 votes.

However, after that the next candidates up are from the left politically. Sinéad Gibney of the Social Democrats (17,679) is likely to transfer mostly to Aodhán Ó Ríordáin of Labour (32,253) and outgoing MEP Ciarán Cuffe of the Greens (33,737). However, Bríd Smith (24,284), if she is next to be eliminated, is expected to transfer heavily to Clare Daly (29,759).

There are a number of scenarios that could play out in what is a tight contest.

The politics of the local

The local election count is finally coming to an end with 929 of the 949 seats decided. The remaining seats to be filled are mostly subject to recounts and disputes but all should be settled tomorrow.

An interesting aspect is how close Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are and the competition between them to be the leading party in local government. At one stage, Fine Gael looked like it would be top dog but there has been a late surge from its Coalition partner.

Fianna Fáil is now one seat to the good over Fine Gael.

Fianna Fáil director of local elections, Jack Chambers, issued a statement tonight: “I have been reviewing the counts and seat numbers all day and I now have growing confidence that Fianna Fáil will remain as the largest party of local government when all the votes are counted and the full democratic process has concluded.

“We are in a really strong position as the final seats are declared.”

Sinn Féin now has 100 seats which is an improvement on 2019 but that election was a disaster for it. Labour has consolidated and is close to its 2019 level of seats (56 seats now, 57 seats then).

The Social Democrats have been the big winners, pro rata with 35 seats, almost double its 2019 total.

There are five avowedly right-wing councillors and quite a few others who made migration an issue in their campaigns (if not the sole issue). Otherwise, there was no significant breakthrough by right-wing parties or groups.

Follow all our election counts, county by count, here.

Fine Gael, zero to hero: Sinn Féin, hero to zero.

Speaking to reporters at the RDS last night, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald said there was a wide range of views within the party on its shortcomings, which included “organisational issues” and “how we pitched our message in some cases”.

McDonald admitted that the party needs to be clear on all of its policies, insisting its position on immigration has not changed.

“We are a party that is absolutely anti-racist, we believe in human rights, dignity and respect for every human being.

“We believe in having a system that is efficient where decisions are made quickly, that is marked by fairness.”

Best reads and listens

Election Daily with Hugh Linehan has a deep dive into the European election results.

Pat Leahy analyses the possible timing of a general election in light of these results.

Jennifer Bray looks at new questions around Mary Lou McDonald’s leadership of Sinn Féin.

Cormac McQuinn reports on backbenchers in the two main Government parties pushing for an early election.

Playbook

Cabinet

Yes, it’s business as usual in the Dáil today despite the ongoing counts.

Green Party leader Eamon Ryan will bring three memos to Cabinet, one of which involves a SEAI grant for retrofitting aimed at owners of houses with defective concrete blocks. Timely, given that four people were elected to Donegal County Council on this single issue.

The Tánaiste will bring memos relating to Defence to Cabinet, including an extension of the mission of Irish army personnel in Kosovo, as well as participation in two Pesco projects, one on a logistics hub for Europe; the other on a critical seabed infrastructure project.

Dáil Éireann

14:00: Leaders’ Questions.

It goes without saying this will be interesting.

15:05: Planning and Development Bill 2023 – Report and Final Stages.

19:20: Private Members’ Business (Sinn Féin): Motion re Special Education

21:22: Parliamentary Question to Minister for Social Protection Heather Humphreys.

23:40: Adjournment.

Dáil adjourns

Seanad Éireann

15.15: Private Members’ Business: Control of Dogs (Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2024 – Second Stage. A timely motion from Fianna Fáil senators, considering the fatal attack in Limerick last week.

Committees

11.00: Education.

Briefing on Climate Action and Sustainable Development Education in Primary and Post Primary Schools with officials from Dept of Education and from the National Council for Curriculum and Assessment.

15.15: Foreign Affairs.

Engagement with Dóchas to discuss their pre-budget submission.

Sign up for Politics push alerts and have the best news, analysis and comment delivered directly to your phone