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Analysis: Racing Not Great at Pairing Stars to Races

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Analysis: Racing Not Great at Pairing Stars to Races

The first weekend in June always brings a remarkable glut of quality middle-distance action (the Coronation Cup (G1), the Oaks (G1), the Derby (G1), the French Derby (G1)—perhaps even the Grand Prix de Chantilly (G2) in a pinch) and we always end up with a new set of stars who will hopefully light up the following five months. 

Kentucky-bred City of Troy  is the biggest name, of course. His next race will be keenly anticipated. What can the Epsom Derby winner do against older horses? Now that he’s returned to his peak, can he hold his form or is he still vulnerable to whatever mucked up his chance in the Guineas? Would they really try him on dirt?

The way Ambiente Friendly  cruised into contention will live long in the memory. The Derby runner-up also has star talent.

Ezeliya  won the Epsom Oaks with real authority and comes from one of those classy Aga Khan families, with Gold Cup (G1) winners in there somewhere. The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) has been mentioned.

Coronation Cup winner Luxembourg  wouldn’t count as a new star but you’ve got to love a horse who can win a group 1 for four years in a row. It was a great pleasure to see second-place Hamish  run so well in being beaten just a length and hopefully he can be found other opportunities in the best races. British weather always gives him a fair chance of getting his ground, summer or not. It’s a pity he wouldn’t be allowed in the Arc.

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I’m not totally convinced about the quality of that Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) June 2. But it’s hard to knock an unbeaten winner and Look De Vega ‘s physique suggests he has plenty of improvement left in him.  

So there’s six big names to emerge from this weekend. How many times, do you think, those star middle-distance types will clash before the end of the year? 

It’s the third time I’ve asked the question and, judging by the past couple of years, the answer is going to be three or four. It’s a disappointingly small number, given how many months of the season lie ahead of us, but then again we don’t get a top-class race at 1 1/4 miles or 1 1/2 miles every weekend. These are the types of horses who get looked after. 

After Derby weekend last year, these were the horses whose futures we were pondering: Auguste Rodin , King of Steel , Soul Sister , Savethelastdance , Emily Upjohn , Westover , and Ace Impact . Those Epsom races (plus one from Chantilly) worked out very nicely; five of those seven won top-class races later in the year, while Soul Sister suffered a setback after her next start. 

But there were just four races between early June and December that featured more than one of those seven horses. The big one was the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (G1), in which four of them turned up: Westover (second), King of Steel (third), Emily Upjohn (seventh), and the mercurial Auguste Rodin (tenth). 

After that, it was just the Irish Champion (first Auguste Rodin, fourth King of Steel), the Arc (first Ace Impact, second Westover), and the Breeders’ Cup Turf (first Auguste Rodin, fifth King of Steel). 

When I made the same study in 2022, picking six stars from that first weekend in June, it turned out that they clashed in just three races during the remainder of the year. The King George and the Arc were among them and there was also the Irish Derby (G1). 

We’ve said it a million times before but here’s a fresh example showing that horse racing is really not at all good at getting its stars to take each other on. And it’ll doubtless be a similar tale this year, judging by what connections of Ambiente Friendly have said in the wake of Saturday’s race: “We’ll go wherever City of Troy doesn’t.” 

Sigh! There are backers of Ambiente Friendly out there arguing that he might have got closer if the button had been pressed a little earlier and yet it seems any kind of rematch is not on the table. Mind you, backers of every Derby runner-up probably spend the following days picking over what might have been. 

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