Analysis | This 10-1 longshot has what it takes to win the Belmont Stakes

Sierra Leone prefers to lag behind the first and second flight of horses and use a late kick to pass the competition. His Grade I Blue Grass Stakes win is an excellent illustration of this. The speed to the half-mile mark was 46.48 seconds, faster than the average pace for that distance after adjusting for track conditions. The front-runner that helped set those fast fractions, Top Conor, finished sixth by eight lengths. In this field, however, none of the other horses appear eager to create the speed duel necessary for him to take advantage of his running style.

Instead, let’s focus on Resilience, the reigning Grade II Wood Memorial winner.

Guided by Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, Resilience finished an underwhelming sixth by 7¾ lengths in the Kentucky Derby, but I am willing to toss that race out and focus instead on his Wood Memorial victory. Resilience earned a career-best 104 Brisnet final speed figure in that race. That’s the highest speed figure earned by any horse in the field as a 3-year-old over a fast, dirt track in a route race.

The key was an equipment change, adding blinkers in an effort to reduce the colt’s hesitation to pass other horses. It worked, and the career-best pace figure (speed to the ¾-mile mark in routes) Resilience produced is a signal better efforts are on the horizon.

This race will also be contested at the classic distance of 1¼ miles at Saratoga racecourse in Saratoga Springs, rather than the typical 1½ miles due to renovations at Belmont Park, which suits Resilience perfectly. He is a son of five-time leading North American sire Into Mischief, whose progeny includes Kentucky Derby winners Authentic (2020) and Mandaloun (2021) plus third-place finisher Audible (2018). Resilience’s dam, Meadowsweet, is a daughter of Smart Strike, who sired two-time Horse of the Year Curlin plus Breeders’ Cup Turf (1½ mile race) winner English Channel.

Mott initially decided to avoid the remaining Triple Crown races with Resilience after the sixth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, but strong training sessions at Saratoga — including a half-mile breeze in 47.88 seconds on Sunday morning alongside another Mott-trained horse, Billal — persuaded him the colt deserves a second chance at the classic distance. Because this is a contentious race with no clear standout, I’d bet Resilience at odds higher than 3-1.

Two other contenders are worth noting: Dornoch and Honor Marie. Dornoch could get out front early and never look back, much like he did in the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes in March. Plus, his sire, Good Magic, was the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and second in the 2018 Kentucky Derby, showing he should relish the 1¼ mile distance. In addition, Good Magic’s sire, Curlin, was a two-time Horse of the Year winner.

If someone does challenge Dornoch for the early lead, I think it will be Honor Marie — not Sierra Leone — who is best suited to run down the tired horses. Honor Marie didn’t need a fast pace to win from behind in the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs, despite being seventh out of eighth horses at the ¾-mile mark. I’d make a win wager on Dornoch and Honor Marie at odds of at least 9-2 and 6-1, respectively.