Belmont Stakes 2024: Odds and analysis

Saratoga Springs, N.Y.

The $2 million Belmont Stakes will be held at Saratoga at 1 1/4-miles because of the ongoing construction of a new version of Belmont Park. Ten 3-year-olds were drawn Monday evening, with Sierra Leone identified as the 9-5 morning-line favorite.

The Belmont field has five horses who ran in the Kentucky Derby, including the top two finishers, along with the win and place duo from the Preakness. Also entered is a twice graded-stakes placed horse who is still a maiden and a colt who is undefeated in two starts. One of the runners will have run in all three legs of the 2024 Triple Crown.

Only three horses come into the Belmont with a victory in their most recent races, the Preakness, an allowance at Churchill Downs and the Grade 3 Peter Pan.

A look at Belmont Stakes winners since 2000 shows that the 24 post-time favorites had seven victories, placed six times and got three thirds. Thus, the math shows that only eight ended up off the board. More recently the favorite finished first or second the last seven years.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Belmont Stakes with the official track morning-line odds. The final leg of this year’s Triple Crown is scheduled as race 12 of 14 with post time at 6:41 p.m. EDT.

1. Seize the Grey, 8-1. Arrogate – D. Wayne Lukas / Jaime Torres – 10: 4-0-3 – $1,891,938. Seize the Gray won the Preakness by more than two lengths, earning a career high Beyer Speed Figure of 100 from Daily Racing Form. That makes him one of only three horses in the field to have a triple-digit number. Seize the Grey is the most experienced horse in the field with 10 starts and leads with four career victories. In his long and distinguished career where he won 15 Triple Crown races, Hall of Fame trainer Wayne Lukas won the Belmont four times, most recently in 2000 with Commendable. Win contender.

2. Resilience, 10-1. Into Mischief – Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado – 7: 2-1-1 – $494,630. Last seen, Resilience finished sixth in the Kentucky Derby when he rallied from the middle of the field to get to second but then was passed by late runners. He qualified for the Derby with a victory in the Wood Memorial (G2). He was sent to Saratoga and after training well gave trainer Bill Mott the confidence to try the third leg of the Triple Crown. Mott won the 2010 Belmont with Drosselmeyer. Use underneath.

3. Mystik Dan, 5-1. Goldencents – Kenny McPeek / Brian Hernandez Jr. – 8: 3-2-1 – $4,141,360. Mystik Dan is the only horse to run in all three legs of the 2024 Triple Crown. With his Kentucky Derby victory and solid second-place finish in the Preakness, he is proven at the 10-furlong distance and must be given serious consideration in the Belmont Stakes. Mystik Dan is the leading money winner in the field with over $4 million. Trainer Kenny McPeek won the Belmont in 2002 with Sarava. Use underneath.

4. The Wine Steward, 15-1. Vino Rosso – Mike Maker / Manny Franco – 6: 3-3-0 – $467,260. The Wine Steward won the first three races in his career as a 2-year-old, with two against New York-breds and the Bashford Manor at Ellis Park. He moved to graded-stakes competition after that and finished third in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), went on a five-month layoff and was then third in Lexington (G3) and the Peter Pan. Manny Franco, who rode him to victory in the Funny Cide, gets back on the son of Vino Rosso. Toss.

5. Antiquarian, 12-1. Preservationist – Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez – 4: 2-1-0 – $173,000. Antiquarian did not begin his career until January of this year and was second at Gulfstream Park. He broke his maiden at Fair Grounds the following month. On the Kentucky Derby trail he finished sixth in the Louisiana Derby (G2) after breaking through the gate. He became a serious contender for the Belmont after winning the Peter Pan a month ago. Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher is a four-time winner of the Belmont Stakes, beginning with the filly Rags to Riches in 2007 and most recently with Mo Donegal in 2022. Win contender.

6. Dornoch, 15-1. Good Magic – Danny Gargan / Luis Saez – 7: 3-2-0 – $552,275. Dornoch ended his juvenile campaign with his first two victories in a maiden at Keeneland and then the Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct. This year he started out with a win in the Fountain of Youth (G2). In his two most recent races he was not able to get to the lead and was fourth in the Blue Grass (G1) and 10th in the Kentucky Derby. Toss.

7. Protective, 20-1. Medaglia d’Oro – Todd Pletcher / Tyler Gaffalione – 4: 0-1-2 – $121,920. Protective comes to the Belmont as an atypical maiden. He moved from a pair of starts in maiden special weights to graded-stakes competition, where he was third in the Wood Memorial (G2) and most recently in the Peter Pan (G3). In those stakes he was beaten by three horses who also are running in the Belmont. Toss.

8. Honor Marie, 12-1. Honor Code – Whit Beckman / Florent Geroux – 6: 2-2-0 – $526,175. Honor Marie became a graded-stakes winner in his third start when he rallied from last to take the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). As a 3-year-old, Honor Marie was fifth in the Risen Star (G2) and second in the Louisiana Derby. He then got jostled around in the run for the roses to be last of 20 and rallied to finish eighth. Use underneath.

9. Sierra Leone, 9-5. Gun Runner – Chad Brown / Flavien Prat – 5: 3-2-0 – $1,918,000. Sierra Leone was beaten twice by a nose or otherwise he would be undefeated in a five-race career. He had victories in the Risen Star and the Blue Grass, which led to his narrow loss in the Derby. Much was said and written about Sierra Leone’s tendency to drift out in the stretch. Trainer Chad Brown has made an equipment change to try to help. Brown explained that the son of Gun Runner does not drift during his morning work but only in the heat of competition down the stretch. That makes it hard to correct beyond trying a change of bits. Win contender.

10. Mindframe, 7-2. Constitution – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 2: 2-0-0 – $87,360. Well regarded from a young age, the Maryland-bred son of Constitution sold for $600,000 as a Keeneland yearling. Undefeated in two starts, Mindframe was a brilliant winner of a maiden at Gulfstream with a 103 Beyer and a two-turn allowance at Churchill by a total of 21 1/4 lengths. The move from an allowance victory to a Triple Crown race is significant. The fact that Pletcher is making that move has to be considered an endorsement. Top choice.

Summary: With the top two finishers from the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness among the seven graded-stakes winners in the Belmont Stakes, picking the winner will not be easy. With their best performance, there are a few serious win contenders.

Mindframe lacks in experience, but his pair of brilliant victories suggests he could be any kind. He is bred to handle the distance. Mindframe is the top choice on the chance that he will run this field off their feet.