Our form expert has four selections for Betfred Derby day at Epsom and he’s backing a son of Sea The Stars to emulate his sire in the Classic.
The Verdict: Saturday, June 1
1pt e.w Golden West in 1.25 Epsom at 16/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w Sea Of Thieves in 2.00 Epsom at 12/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
1pt win Night On Earth in 3.45 Epsom at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Macduff in 4.30 Epsom at 14/1 (General)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Macduff to emerge from the shadows
With three impressive trial winners missing and City Of Troy having questions to answer after his 2000 Guineas reverse, this has the look of a wide-open Betfred Derby.
City Of Troy could still be the one to blow it apart, but stall one has made his task even more difficult and the percentage call has to be to take him on, likewise stablemate Los Angeles, who has a solid chance, but his ship has sailed price-wise.
The drying ground is key and it looks against Ancient Wisdom who probably needed it to be genuinely soft to have any chance, ditto Dancing Gemini, who has a big stamina query hanging over him in any case.
The one who might end up disputing favouritism is Lingfield trial winner Ambiente Friendly and I came close to siding with him around 13/2. He is the one impressive trial winner who has made the race, he has the best form from this season and he’s proven over the trip.
I was taken by how he travelled all over his rivals at Lingfield and he looks to have that perfect blend of speed and stamina that is so important in a Derby. The Rab Havlin switch was a bit strange, but it’s certainly not a negative to his chance and he has high hopes of delivering James Fanshawe a Derby winner.
However, at the prices, the one I want to back is MACDUFF for Ralph Beckett at 14/1, as the son of Sea The Stars is the one horse from the trials who could make a big leap forward second time up this season.
Beckett’s horses weren’t firing when he ran behind Arabian Crown at Sandown, but it was a good runner-up effort behind a horse that would likely be a 7/4 chance in this Derby and it looked a platform from which he could improve greatly from.
His sire has been responsible for Epsom Classic winners Harzand and Taghrooda, as well as Group 1 winners at the track like Emily Upjohn and Hukum, and this well-balanced colt has stamina on his dam’s side, too, being from the family of First Eleven.
All that means he has the potential to improve significantly for 1m4f around Epsom, especially now the Beckett stable is fully in the groove, and at 14/1 he’s fairly priced up for a trainer who went close to winning this race with Westover, who won the Sandown Classic Trial, for the same owners a few years ago.
The Verdict: Back MACDUFF in the 4.30 Epsom
West is best on the undercard
The best bet on the Derby undercard is GOLDEN WEST in the opening Hong Kong Jockey Club Lester Piggott Handicap for Karl Burke at 16/1.
This horse was highly thought of as a juvenile and was entered up in the Group 1 Futurity Trophy at Doncaster last year, only for Burke to finish his two-year-old campaign by bringing him to Epsom for the conditions race subsequent Derby runner-up Dee Ex Bee won a few years ago.
Golden West won it easily, accounting for the now 102-rated Derby runner Sayedaty Sadaty, who was three lengths adrift in third, and he went into the winter unbeaten in two runs.
Things didn’t start out great for the son of Masar when he was last on his reappearance at Longchamp, but it was very soft ground for his first run and you can put a line through that, while he shaped with promise in fourth in what looked a very good renewal of the Chester Vase.
He was caught out by the injection of pace around half a mile out at Chester, but he was still in there pitching two furlongs from home and the first two home, particularly the ill-fated winner Hidden Law, looked very nice prospects indeed.
Golden West was outclassed, but he should be much more at home over 10 furlongs in handicap company from a mark of 91 and owner Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum has won three Derby Festival handicaps with Ajman King, Royal Champion and Bolster (on Friday) from just six runners.
The Verdict: Back GOLDEN WEST in the 1.25 Epsom
Night to blast away in Dash
I couldn’t find an angle in the 3YO “Dash” with so many improving youngsters taking each other on but I like the look of Ian Williams’ NIGHT ON EARTH in the Aston Martin “Dash” Handicap at 3.45.
Williams knows what’s required to win this race having landed it with Mokaatil a few years ago and Night On Earth has the early speed to capitalise on a good high draw in 13, two away from the far rail.
Indeed, he came across from a middle draw to win on the same rail at the April meeting, where he again showcased his blistering early pace, a theme of his runs since he started to regain his form earlier in the year.
Dropping to a mark in the 60s obviously helped him too, but he’s still well treated on his form for Mick Appleby, where he was a 95-rated horse, and while he’s effectively racing off 86 being 4lb out of the weights, Morgan Cole takes off 5lb to help in that regard.
This is a massive day for her, but she has ridden a winner at Epsom from just three goes and this horse gives her a very nice chance of partnering a big Saturday winner.
The Verdict: Back NIGHT ON EARTH in the 3.45 Epsom
Thieves can steal Princess Elizabeth Stakes
Finally, SEA OF THIEVES looks the bet in the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes over the extended mile at 2.00.
Formerly with Ed Walker, who trained her last season when she won a Haydock novice on fast ground at 66/1, she looks to have improved for time and patience judging by her first run for French 2000 Guineas-winning trainer Mario Baratti at Longchamp at the end of April.
She responded to pressure to stay on well to win the Listed Prix Maurice Zilber over seven furlongs on very soft ground, beating a filly called Exxtra who came out and won the Group 3 Prix du Palais-Royal last weekend (albeit in a slightly messy affair).
That’s an indication she has improved quite significantly now she has turned four and the extra furlong and a bit and better ground should hold no problems for this daughter of Cracksman.
An official rating of 97 might well underestimate her given what Exxtra did last weekend (the 106-rated Yosemite Valley, trained by Donnacha O’Brien, was back in third), yet the bookies seem to have priced her up based around that figure. Either way, she looks underestimated at 12s.
The Verdict: Back SEA OF THIEVES in the 2.00 Epsom
Preview posted at 1600 BST on 31/05/24
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