There is a huge amount of racing to enjoy this weekend and Andrew Asquith returns with three early bets at Ascot and York.
Weekend View: Saturday July 13
2pts win Liberty Lane in the 3.15 York at 8/1 (William Hill, Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt e.w. Haymaker in the 1.45 Ascot at 14/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4 – William Hill, Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt win Aimeric in the 3.45 York at 8/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Lane can sink rivals in John Smith’s Cup
There was lots to look at this week, as there are plenty of races priced up – punters can look forward to a bumper 11 races on ITV on Saturday – but I’ve found it hard to pin down some selections, as plenty of horses who caught my eye have several entries with Newmarket’s July meeting starting on Thursday.
It does make it a little tricky, as the first port of call is to pick horses who are more than likely going to run in the race! One horse who should line up on Saturday is the Karl Burke-trained LIBERTY LANE, whose sole entry is in the John Smith’s Cup at York, and he is my strongest pick this week.
As always, it looks set to be a highly-competitive renewal of this valuable and historic handicap, and Liberty Lane is well found in the market, currently sitting as the 8/1 second favourite, but in my opinion, he more than deserves to be.
He was well fancied for the Lincoln at Doncaster on his return and, though he failed to fire on what was his first start since being gelded, it did come on heavy ground and after six months off, and people who didn’t judge him too harshly for that below-par performance were rewarded when he ran out a ready winner over nine furlongs at Newmarket next time.
Liberty Lane is a strong-travelling type, so it was no surprise to see him bounce back to form returned to a sounder surface, and it was hard not to be impressed by the fashion in which he sealed that race, proving very strong at the finish to beat some useful rivals in a good time – the timefigure he recorded backed up the visual impression he created.
I fancied Liberty Lane strongly on his next start at Epsom following that display and those of you who also backed him that day will remember he got completely no run at all. Indeed, it was a painful race to watch, but it also showed that he is clearly a horse who remains on a competitive mark.
Liberty Lane was a little too enthusiastic if anything in the early stages, leaving the impression he would have been happier with a stronger early pace, and as can often be the case at Epsom, he got hemmed in with nowhere to go in the straight, still tanking on the bridle two furlongs out and staying on in the closing stages when getting a gap, finishing with running left at the line.
His stablemate Bolster won that day, but wasn’t in the same form in a Group 3 last time, though that race on the whole is working out well. Liberty Lane will race from the same mark on Saturday and he remains a horse to be very positive about in middle-distance handicaps, very much the type to be plying his trade in pattern company come the end of the season, and York as a track should suit his run style much better, too.
There is rain around on Tuesday, but with a largely dry forecast for the remainder of the week, the ground is unlikely to get too soft, and Liberty Lane looks a rock-solid contender in the John Smith’s Cup.
Click here to back Liberty Lane at Sky Bet
Aim for the top at York
The John Smith’s Silver Cup Stakes, which follows shortly after, has the potential to cut up somewhat, with the likes of Hamish and Arrest both declared at Newmarket on Thursday, and at the prices, it is AIMERIC who interests me.
Aimeric proved better than ever when making a winning return in a handicap at Lingfield in May – making a BHA mark of 102 look very lenient – and he has shaped well when finding only King of Conquest too strong in a couple of Listed events over a mile and a half at Goodwood and Newmarket the last twice.
He got a lot closer to King of Conquest last time in receipt of 3lb and he looked the likeliest winner entering the final furlong – he traded as short as 1.49 in-running on Betfair. Aimeric travelled well in rear and moved up to challenge the eventual winner in style, looking set to pull clear when asked but not finding as much as looked likely.
Aimeric won over a similar trip to this at Ayr a couple of years ago and it could be that he’s ready for a return to further now. The way in which he travels through his races suggests that he has an even bigger performance in his locker and he also arrives in career-best form.
Klondike received an excellent ride when narrowly seeing off Salt Bay a few weeks ago, but he’s unlikely to get such an easy lead this time, and I’m not sure how strong that form is. Aimeric will meet King of Conquest on 3lb worse terms this time if they both turn up (King of Conquest hasn’t a jockey pencilled in as yet), but I’m not sure if there should be the disparity in price that there is at the moment, especially as King of Conquest is yet to race beyond a mile and a half.
One minor concern is that Aimeric has been below form on both visits to York, each time over this course and distance, but one came in the Melrose, and the other on softer ground, so it wouldn’t be fair to judge him on just those efforts considering he’s a more mature and improved model now. If this race does cut up as expected, then the 8/1 available now may look quite big come Saturday afternoon, and I expect him to run a big race back up in distance.
Click here to back Aimeric at Sky Bet
Going for a Haymaker at Ascot
My final selection comes in the first race at Ascot, a five-furlong handicap for horses aged three and over, and I like the claims of HAYMAKER. Now, this horse does have an entry at Newmarket on Friday, so you may wish to wait and see if he’s declared there on Wednesday before backing him, but he’s a bang in-form sprinter who is more than fairly priced at around 14/1.
He finished runner-up to one who had fallen right down the weights and returned to form on his return at Brighton in April and Haymaker went on to win his next two starts, firstly over five furlongs at Nottingham and then over six furlongs at Goodwood.
Haymaker also ran a cracker in defeat at Windsor last time, not settling fully on the outer with no cover, but sticking to his task well, leading two furlongs out and only just edged out in the finish. The way he shaped that day suggests he’ll love a return to five furlongs, especially at a track like Ascot which has a stiff finish, and he has shaped well on all of his starts at this track.
He does have some quirks, while he isn’t often the best away from the stalls, but there is no doubting he arrives in career-best form and Hughie Morrison is ticking over nicely at present. The ground won’t be a bother to him – its currently good to soft, soft in places with a bit more rain forecast – and with most firms paying the first four places he looks a nice each-way bet.
Click here to back Haymaker at Sky Bet
Preview posted at 1615 BST on 09/07/2024
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