The Commonwealth Cup features at Royal Ascot on Friday and our value-seeker is back to preview the action.
The Value Bet is designed to generatelong-term profitby searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
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Following all Matt’s selections to recommended odds/stakes since taking over the column in June 2020 would have produced over210pts in profit.
Friday’s Group 1 races are all about potential and it’s not hard to envisage Opera Singer really announcing herself as a star of the season in the Coronation Stakes.
She looked to have the world at her feet when scooting clear in top-class company at Longchamp on Arc weekend last year and her (slightly delayed) comeback run in the Irish 1,000 Guineas left the impression the daughter of Justify had not only trained on, but would likely improve a ton for it.
She’s got the first three home from the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket standing in her way here, along with the French Guineas winner to boot, but I’m in no mood to take Opera Singer on with Ryan Moore expected to get out brightly from stall nine and pick up a prominent early position. If he’s able to sit in second or third behind stablemate Content (stall three), then the rest could clearly be fighting an uphill battle.
The other three-year-old feature – the Commonwealth Cup – is a little bit different from a punting perspective as while Inisherin might well be the next ace in the sprinting pack, I’m not absolutely convinced he’s going to love the prevailing ground and he looks short enough in the betting on the back of a clear-cut Sandy Lane success in testing conditions up at Haydock.
He’s obviously a burgeoning talent but, with four/five places up for grabs, the advice is to take him on each-way with the relatively unheralded filly PANDORA’S GIFT.
She’s a genuine dark horse in here as she’s having her first ever start on turf after making massive progress on the all-weather through the winter, winning four in a row following a promising enough debut second at Chelmsford in December.
She’s skipped possible engagements at Haydock (Sandy Lane) and Epsom since her latest win, which was achieved in impressive fashion when stepped up to Listed level early last month.
Just about every piece of her form over the past few months has been franked, the third and fourth from that most recent race – Jabaara and Ziggy’s Dream – subsequently landing Listed races of their own at Musselburgh and in Italy respectively.
The Stuart Williams-trained Pandora’s Gift has blown apart everything put in her way and although this race represents another major jump up in class, Timeform have her on quite a punchy master rating of 105p and she’s only 8lb behind the likes of 5/1 shot Jasour on their adjusted figures for this race, in which the females receive 3lb from the boys.
As a general rule, I’d be looking to oppose prominent racers on the sprint course here, particularly when the ground is riding quick, but Pandora’s Gift has just looked something out of the ordinary and she’s a big enough price to lure me, especially when you consider two of the nine Commonwealth Cup so far have been fillies.
Nice prospect simmering away?
It’s hard fault Aidan O’Brien’s hot favourite Fairy Godmother, who is treading a very familiar path to the Albany Stakes, but if there’s a turn-up then – as was the case in Tuesday’s Coventry – it could be provided by the horse sporting the Sangster silks.
Simmering, a daughter of Too Darn Hot and trained by Ollie Sangster, comes here on the back of a debut third at York but that doesn’t reveal the half of it as she put in a very eye-catching performance against a bunch of promising colts and geldings on the Knavesmire.
After missing a beat and ducking left soon after the stalls opened, the well-backed 3/1 favourite was soon to the fore and travelled all over her rivals without getting any cover.
She cruised up alongside eventual winner Arabie coming to the two-furlong marker but didn’t seem to know exactly what was being asked of her from that point and Karl Burke’s Arabie – who had been second first time out at Thirsk – put his previous experience to good use.
Simmering lost second close home to one from well off the pace but she’ll have learnt bundles for that introductory outing and, given the way she travelled at York, the booking of Jamie Spencer here looks a bit of a masterstroke.
I was quite keen to have her onside each-way at 20s-plus (had been 33/1 just after final decs) but was forced to take a late pull after sustained support through Thursday afternoon. I just can’t recommend backing her at 12/1.
Time to turn to Turner once more
Some classy-looking types towards the head of the handicap in the Sandringham Stakes and the likes of Everlasting and Indelible have Group 1 entries to their name which speaks volumes.
The latter’s stablemate Forever Blue is another fascinating project having been bought by Wathnan after her win at Haydock earlier in the month and you can certainly see why as the daughter of Blue Point still looks pretty raw and has considerable room for improvement now upped in trip (out of an Authorized mare who has already produced a couple of winning milers).
One who is ghosting under the radar a little bit is the Andrew Balding-trained BATTLE QUEEN.
She seems to have taken a while to find her stride but has improved for the move up to Friday’s distance this year and her one-length second to Francophone at Southwell in April represents a decent piece of form.
The winner, who was admittedly conceding 6lb, has since finished second in the Musidora before winning a Listed race at Goodwood and has a mark of 100, so Battle Queen’s current perch of 81 looks perfectly workable.
It’s obviously not ideal that she has to run off 83, racing from 2lb out of the handicap proper here, but it’s worth recalling Balding has won plenty of valuable handicaps over the years with horses competing from out of the weights and he’s turned to the ideal lightweight jockey in Hayley Turner, who won this event in 2019 on Thanks Be (who incidentally was 4lb ‘wrong’) and the following year on Onassis.
Stall one makes her mind up in terms of where to challenge on the track and I doubt we’ve seen anything like the best of Battle Queen just yet.
Don’t miss Mukaafah
He won’t be alone in this regard but MUKAAFAH has evidently been laid out for the Palace Of Holyrood House Stakes since his striking victory over six furlongs at Doncaster in mid-May.
Far too keen early on when letting down favourite-backers on his seasonal return at Kempton in March, he was a reformed character in the first-time hood last time but still shaped like a strongly-run five furlongs on a stiff track will be right up his street (replay below).
The handicapper hasn’t exactly missed the son of Blue Point, moving him up 8lb, but the Doncaster second has subsequently won a competitive-looking handicap at Haydock off a 1lb higher mark and Mukaafah just looked in a different league.
He’ll need the breaks, that goes without saying in a race of this nature, but he’s drawn in between two genuinely quick ones in Toca Madera and Mon Na Slieve, and hopefully Jim Crowley can delay his challenge as the colt’s finishing kick is lethal.
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