Our value-seeking expert has fired in 7/1 and 13/2 winners already this week and underlines his best bets for Saturday’s action at Newmarket, York and Ascot.
- Matt Brocklebank’s Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
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- Following all Matt’s selections to recommended odds/stakes since taking over the column in June 2020 would have produced over 250pts in profit.
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Value Bet tips: Saturday July 13
1pt win Badri in 1.45 Ascot at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Cuban Tiger in 2.00 York at 18/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor)
1pt win Arabic Legend in 2.50 Newmarket at 16/1 (Coral, BetVictor)
1pt win Enfjaar in 3.10 York at 12/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, BetVictor)
1pt e.w. Percy’s Lad in 4.00 Newmarket at 12/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Take two on final day of July Festival
Nothing would shock me in Saturday’s My Pension Expert July Cup Stakes as the sprint division just looks so open on the whole, but while that would typically lead me to taking a chance on one of the outsiders, it’s not a race in which I’m desperate to get involved.
Old boy Art Power, fourth for the past two years, isn’t completely out of it, while River Tiber could be sitting on a whole heap of potential improvement back in trip and if forced into a win-only selection then Aidan O’Brien’s colt would possibly be the one granted a forceful Ryan Moore ride, but there are so many meaty handicaps to tackle on the day I’m loathed to put something forward simply for the sake of it being the Group 1 feature.
Central to my punting on ‘Super (Saturation?) Saturday’ is the bet365 Bunbury Cup and PERCY’S LAD is backed to continue the excellent run of form being enjoyed by trainers Daniel and Claire Kubler. They’ve had a remarkable seven winners from 14 runners so far in July, hot on the heels of a strong end to the previous month, and this horse looks to have the right credentials for a race of this nature.
He won his fourth handicap for the yard when defying stall 13 at Chester’s May meeting earlier in the year, that effort confirming the promise of his improved comeback second on the Rowley Mile, and he ran miles better than the bare form suggests in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot last time.
Drawn in one right on the far side, Percy’s Lad showed good speed to sit close to the pace but it soon became clear he was fighting a losing battle and patently on the wrong part of the track.
As a bunch of others drawn mid-to-low shifted more towards the centre of the course around halfway, Percy’s Lad was just left with Gorak to race with on the inside rail and, to be fair to them, that pair stuck at it admirably right the way to the line, ending up beating the central bunch by a couple of lengths but unfortunately several adrift of winner English Oak and the larger group who stuck to the stands’ side.
The form book states Percy’s Lad finished 11th at the Royal meeting but I’m willing to mark that up quite considerably and it’s a touch surprising to see Gorak a fair bit shorter than him in the market on identical terms this weekend.
Front-runners have been well rewarded on the July Course throughout the meeting so far and, with extra places on offer, he looks a sensible each-way choice in a typically competitive edition.
ARABIC LEGEND is another prominent racer to have on side at Newmarket and he could be up to defying top weight in the bet365 Mile Handicap.
This horse was sent off joint-favourite for the Autumn Stakes won by Ancient Wisdom last October and was initially tried in some Classic trials earlier this season, after the switch from Andrew Balding to Karl Burke.
It didn’t pan out at all but lowering his sights, and dropping in trip, almost paid off when sent for a valuable handicap at the Curragh late last month and I suspect the horse who beat him there (Sharinay) is bound for Group races in the near future.
Arabic Legend clearly needs a little juice underfoot and he might get that here given there are some more showers in the forecast and I fully anticipate Clifford Lee will look to grab this race by the scruff of the neck some way out, as he did in Ireland.
Whether there’s anything quite as well handicapped as the one who ran him down late that day is open to question and he’ll take some passing if conditions are suitable.
Tiger to pounce on quality York card
In the same silks and from the same stable, CUBAN TIGER looks worth backing in York’s opening John Smith’s Racing Handicap.
The obvious improvers, namely Elnajmm and Telemark, have found their way to the top of the market along with course regulars like Blue For You and Northern Express, but Cuban Tiger is a big price and also brings plenty of potential to the table after just half a dozen lifetime starts.
Unlike the majority of those already mentioned, he’s got a very handy draw in stall five and I suspect a switch to this turning track will play to the strengths of the Havana Grey colt, who went off far too quickly and was a sitting duck from halfway after racing keenly in the Britannia Stakes last month. A stable representative stated the ground was too fast for him at Ascot anyway and this looks an altogether more suitable test.
He was unraced at two but made a good impression on the all-weather in the spring and does look feasibly treated here based on his one-length second to the Guineas winner Notable Speech at Kempton and subsequent neck defeat of Derby fifth Sayedaty Sadaty at Newcastle.
The John Smith’s Cup Handicap would have to be one of my favourite races of the year at York and it’s going to take a quality performance to win this year given the sheer strength in depth to the field.
Epic Poet is the best-handicapped horse in the field seeing as he’s been nudged up 3lb for his Duke of Edinburgh second since the weights for this were published but it’s hard to pass a load of horses in the York home straight and it’s unlikely he’ll get a brilliant early slot from stall 22.
The one to be on looks to be ENFJAAR, who appeared to have developed into the finished article when making a striking reappearance on the all-weather at Chelmsford last month (replay below).
Timing-wise, that race should have teed him up perfectly for what looks to have been his big summer target and his 5lb penalty doesn’t put me off at all, not least as he’s been raised that much in the ratings anyway.
Gelded over the winter and re-fitted with the hood he’d worn when scoring on debut as a two-year-old in a Rowley Mile maiden at the back-end of 2022, Enfjaar travelled stylishly at Chelmsford before comfortably putting some smart/experienced rivals away, including Wadacre Gomez and Zealot, who have since finished first and third in a similar race at the same track.
The son of Lope De Vega’s last two turf starts have been lamentable but he found the good to firm ground and drop to seven furlongs way too sharp in last year’s Jersey and clearly didn’t run his race when last of 12 behind Sparks Fly on heavy going at Haydock in September.
It looks like ‘no excuse’ conditions for him on the Knavesmire on Saturday and, with stall one a positive and trainer Roger Varian in good form, the double-figure odds want snapping up.
Bad to come good at Ascot
Ascot’s opening A1R Services Heritage Handicap makes the ITV programme too and last year’s runner-up BADRI looks worth backing to go one better.
He had a superb season in 2023, winning five times in total (four of which for Ruth Carr before the stable switch) and rising from an initial mark of 88 to end his campaign with a course and distance victory off 100 in October.
No surprise, then, that he’s found life a bit tougher off his inflated rating since, but the assessor has been quite quick to drop him, the mark going from 104 to 96 after just four starts, the most recent of which was not without promise.
Help up last in Epsom’s JRA Tokyo Trophy Handicap – among the handful of races he won last year – Badri found himself with a near-impossible task as the pace-setters quickened off a moderate tempo and, predictably, the first three home had been prominent from the get-go.
Julie Camacho’s horse, as he is now, could be seen making up ground very late in the day but it was never going to be enough and I’m still not convinced Badri truly loves Epsom despite the last-gasp win there last summer.
He disappointed in the Gosforth Park Cup (sent off 5/2 favourite) en route to this event last year but comes here relatively fresh this time and the cheekpieces tried for the first time on his most recent outing are dispensed with.
After the latest 2lb drop from the assessor, Badri runs off 4lb lower than when finding only The Big Board too good in last year’s renewal when drawn low, and I like his high draw in 15 on Saturday as he should get a nice tow into it courtesy of Jumbeau (10), Lethal Nymph (12), Get It (17) and Toca Madera (18), who have all shown good early pace in the past.
A truly-run race over a stiff five furlongs is precisely what this horse needs and he’s versatile ground-wise too which is a bonus as it’s hard to know how much it might dry out from the ‘good to soft’ at the time of publication.
Published at 1600 BST on 12/07/24
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