Best Value Bets for Saturday July 6

• The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
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• Following all Matt’s selections to recommended odds/stakes since taking over the column in June 2020 would have produced over 235pts in profit.

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Value Bet tips: Saturday July 6

1pt win Purosangue in 1.50 Sandown at 16/1 (William Hill, bet365)

1pt e.w. Pappano in 2.05 Haydock at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)

1pt win Tiaraqueen in 3.00 Sandown at 33/1 (General)

1pt e.w. If Not Now in 3.15 Haydock at 16/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5) – 14/1 General

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Tiara to outshine Sandown rivals

Having done a decent impression of Auguste Rodin in bouncing back from Guineas misery to win the Betfred Derby in great style, City Of Troy looks to avoid repeating his stablemate’s low-key effort when facing up to older horses for the first time last summer.

Auguste Rodin did find himself in one of the hottest King Georges of recent times, in fairness, and you’d be very hard pressed to suggest this Saturday’s Coral-Eclipse at Sandown is packed with quality older rivals for the son of Justify.

More rain than forecast – and you can rarely rule that out entirely – might throw a spanner in the works of those looking to ‘buy money’ around the 1/3 mark, but there’s no real need to be taking on Aidan O’Brien’s latest star three-year-old.

Having said that, it’s worth stressing I’m still of the opinion that Ghostwriter is a quality colt. Just revisit his Guineas effort again when finishing nicely in behind Rosallion and Haatem in fourth, despite stumbling soon after the start. He did have Commonwealth Cup winner Inisherin and – whisper is quietly – City Of Troy behind him at Newmarket too, but it’s clear that wasn’t the favourite’s true running and I just can’t see Clive Cox’s horse faring much better than a creditable second here.

He’s 15/8 for a top-two finish and around 9/4 ‘without City Of Troy’ which may appeal to some, but there are several more competitive races to tackle this weekend so I’ll move on in the hunt for a bigger price.

Speaking of which, I don’t want to be missing out if TIARAQUEEN causes a shock in the Coral Distaff.

Her trainer William Haggas will evidently quite happily blow a tasty mark in order to achieve some valuable black type with his improving fillies and, among other instances over the years, did just that with Mystic Pearl in the very same race here 12 months ago.

She was officially rated just 78 after finishing second in a handicap the previous month but swooped late to defy odds of 22/1 and beat the 103-rated Stenton Glider.

Mystic Pearl had run eight times already and still found the required improvement which is why I’m reasonably hopeful when it comes to the seemingly outclassed Tiaraqueen, who has only made three starts and looked potentially quite useful when opening her account over seven furlongs at Wetherby last month.

The runner-up Thunder Run, a sizeable gelding trained by Karl Burke, has since emerged to readily land a Thirsk novice earlier this week – beating a Haggas-trained horse in the process – so there’s a bit of substance to that form, and Kingman filly Tiaraqueen will no doubt get this mile trip standing on her head.

The likes of Clove Hitch and Sandringham winner Soprano have achieved way more to this point, but the selection looks worth a win-only dart at wild odds.

Purosangue to go in sprint

I couldn’t quite get away from the top of the market in the Coral Challenge so won’t be forcing a selection there and preference is to take on Live In the Dream with three-year-old PUROSANGUE in the Coral Charge.

Adam West’s pride and joy should win this Group 3 with something to spare on the pick of last year’s form but he’s not really convinced so far this time around and if you take him out it looks quite an open heat.

Desperate Hero has the ones next to his name and looked a sprinter to follow when dotting up in a Hamilton handicap last month but Purosangue drops from Group 1 level having run in the King Charles III Stakes at Ascot.

That was obviously a case of biting off more than he could chew but he’d looked in need of a drop back to five furlongs on his two previous runs this term – at Ascot when third to Jasour and when fifth behind Inisherin in the Sandy Lane – and he now gets a shot at a more realistic level.

Purosangue was a good, consistent two-year-old and pushed Big Evs really close in the Molecomb before signing off with a tough defeat of Esquire at York in October. It’s definitely too early to be making any hard judgements on him from what we’ve seen this year and his chances on Saturday are underestimated by the odds on offer.

If you ignore the last run…

At Haydock, the big betting race is the bet365 Old Newton Cup Handicap and it looks a well up-to-scratch edition of the race. So much so that it’s not hard to see the likes of Relentless Voyager and La Yakel competing in Group races before the end of the year.

They’re both well found in the market, of course, and Epic Poet’s fine run in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot – so often the key piece of form heading into this event – is well factored into his price around the 10/1 mark.

I’d probably rather back the slow-starting tenth from the informative Ascot race, Sheer Rocks, especially considering he ran so well in last year’s Old Newton Cup and had been off the track for 349 days prior to the Royal meeting last month.

However, at an even bigger price Ralph Beckett’s IF NOT NOW appeals as the type to bounce back in a race like this.

He couldn’t lay a glove on Relentless Voyager at Epsom on Derby day but I think it was a pretty cut-and-dried case of him simply hating the track as he became visibly uncomfortable on the downhill section before hanging markedly in the home straight when all chance had evaporated anyway.

He’s capable of miles better than that, evidenced by his seasonal reappearance run when third at Lingfield in May. Aimeric, the winner that day, has filled the runner-up spot in a couple of Listed races since and the second, True Legend, has franked the form too with a short-head second at Goodwood and a fair fifth in the Northumberland Plate.

After finishing third to Gregory (when sent off favourite) in a Haydock novice last spring, If Not Now won on handicap debut at Sandown and it’s worth noting the son of Iffraaj was subsequently thrown into the Germany Derby, running a fair race in fifth, and he’s now been eased to what looks a decent mark (99) on that basis.

Timeform have him second-highest on their weight-adjusted ratings for the race and he’s definitely over-priced if you’re willing to scrap the latest piece of form – which on balance I am.

Pappano worth a pop at big price

The three-year-old-only bet365 Handicap isn’t any easier to solve by the looks of things, although it’s understandable punters are clearly being drawn to the lightly-raced Dramatic Star for the Haggas team that has bossed this event in recent seasons – winning three of the last four.

Of the outsiders, Beckett’s Games People Play is tempting up in trip with cheekpieces on for the first time, while Newcastle winner Tryfan looks likely to continue his progression for Brian Ellison, who saddled Tashkhan to win this race three years ago.

But at 20/1 or bigger it has to be John and Thady Gosden’s PAPPANO for me. The Gosdens have been scrambling around for quality three-year-old colts all year and this son of Nathaniel was rather rushed into the fast lane after winning a Wolverhampton novice on his comeback in early-April.

He blatantly hasn’t come up to scratch, finishing last in the Chester Vase, fifth in the Cocked Hat and only eighth of 11 when unrealistically asked to run in Group 2 company at Royal Ascot last month, but this is a different ball-game and it would be no shock to see him immediately start to thrive.

Pappano has looked much more of a handicap project to me from the outset really and he finally gets his chance off a reasonable-looking mark of 90. His pedigree suggests he’ll enjoy the rain set to hit the north west too.

Published at 1600 BST on 05/07/24

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