Matt Brocklebank tipped a sensational 66/1 winner on day one at Royal Ascot and our value-seeking expert has a couple of recommendations on Wednesday.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Value Bet tips are now available to qualified, logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, before the full column appears on the main Sporting Life website and App 15 minutes later.
- Following all Matt’s selections to recommended odds/stakes since taking over the column in June 2020 would have produced over 200pts in profit.
Value Bet tips: Wednesday June 19
2pts win Coeur d’Or in 5.05 Royal Ascot at 12/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Moonspirit in 5.40 Royal Ascot at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Beware Alflaila in so-called ‘match’ of the day
The meeting of Auguste Rodin and Inspiral – both successful at a sun-soaked Santa Anita in November – is the main draw on day two of Royal Ascot and punters seem to have latched onto the Gosden-trained mare since declarations were made.
Both horses are exhilarating to watch at their best and should be ideally suited by the prevailing ground, but they’re almost as well known for producing the odd shocker as they are their golden days and, as is often the case when any Group 1 is billed as a match, it’s tempting to look for an alternative in Wednesday’s Prince of Wales’s Stakes.
Blue Rose Cen has won four times at the highest level and possesses a potent turn of foot to match that of Inspiral when on song and her French compatriot Horizon Dore, third in the Champion Stakes over course and distance in the autumn, may still be searching for his first Group 1 win but did come mightily close in last month’s Prix d’Ispahan.
It’s a very good race, in short, and I’m in no rush to rule out further progress from Alflaila this season either. I certainly couldn’t put anyone off Owen Burrows’ horse at double-figure prices, given his fine record fresh, and he’s the closest I came to recommending a bet in the race, but we can happily sit and watch this one.
The same applies in the Queen Mary and the Ballydoyle-laden Queen’s Vase too, while Laurel is not a favourite I’ll be taking on in the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes. She obviously lacks a recent run but smacks of a Group 1 horse in a Group 2 race (entered in the Sussex at Goodwood) and I’m not sure stall one will cause Ryan Moore too many problems.
Weld’s d’Or open to further improvement
Onto the Royal Hunt Cup and I’d maintain there’s still no finer trainer when it comes to the big mile handicaps than David O’Meara, who has a couple of relatively fresh recruits for this highly competitive division in Mirksy and Padishakh.
The latter showed next to nothing on his stable debut, having done something similar on his sole start for Roger Varian in a Newmarket Group 3 last autumn, but he’s got some quality form from France earlier last season and has been given half a chance – at least – by the handicapper.
Who knows whether he’ll handle the lively conditions here, though, and it’s a bit off-putting to see Danny Tudhope jump ship to ride the largely exposed (though perfectly fairly treated) Blue For You, and I’ll just about pass up the chance to back Padishakh and wait for another day with him.
COEUR D’OR looks the one to be backing closer to the head of the market. In fact, it would come as no shock to see Dermot Weld’s runner well-backed and vying for favouritism on the day, so I make him very fair value at 12/1 or thereabouts.
This typically late-maturing son of Dubawi won two of Ireland’s principal handicaps last summer – the ‘BMW Mile’ at Galway and the Irish Cambridgeshire at the Curragh – and he’d possibly just had enough for the year when brought over the for Balmoral here on Champions Day in October.
Freshened up over the winter, he made an eye-catching return to action over an insufficient trip (6f) at the Curragh three and a half weeks ago and that’ll tee him up perfectly for what has presumably been his first major 2024 target.
We’ve already had a reminder at Epsom this year that Weld doesn’t waste many bullets when travelling to Britain and the refitted tongue-tie (same trick used at Galway in August) is a clear statement of intent.
Chris Hayes should have options on this strong-travelling type from stall 22 (middle or stands’ side groups I suspect) and I reckon he’s going to love the ground so make him a decent bet.
Moon to be seen in positive light
Villanova Queen returns to defend her crown in the Kensington Palace Stakes and, despite the burden of top weight, she’s only running off a mark 2lb higher than last year so can’t be dismissed back down in grade having run reasonably well against the likes of Ocean Jewel and Rogue Millennium last time out.
However, there are a few unexposed improvers lurking a little further down the handicap, including Ed Bethell’s Elim and the Hughie Morrison-trained Azahara Palace, who has a 4-9 strike-rate and looked better than ever when coming from near the back to make a winning start to her campaign at Leicester.
However, the one who appeals most at the odds is MOONSPIRIT for in-form pair George Boughey and Billy Loughnane.
The Kingman filly was unraced at two but quickly started to find some form in her debut season last year, winning a Bath maiden and signing off with a pair of handicap victories at Chelmsford towards the back end.
She’s failed to make much of an impact in a couple of runs this time around but trying to make the running on soft ground first time up at Bath looked all kinds of wrong, while I can excuse the last effort too on account of a drop to seven furlongs and her being the only four-year-old to finish inside the top six.
Moonspirit was conceding lumps of weight to the younger fillies that night and probably ran quite well in the circumstances, finishing fourth without being unnecessarily punished by William Buick in the saddle.
The assessor has eased her a pound, meaning she’s just 3lb higher than when last successful, and going back up to a mile – with a strong pace to chase on the straight course – could play right into her hands.
Published at 1600 BST on 18/06/24
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