Big Ten Men’s Basketball Projections- Part One

It’s finally here. The time to do an initial conference projections preview with Washington in the Big Ten. It feels weird but we’re going to just push through the awkwardness.

Washington is obviously in a time of transition replacing head coach Mike Hopkins with former Utah State leader Danny Sprinkle. The Huskies were going to go through heavy transition no matter what with so many seniors on last year’s roster but that was only accelerated by the coaching change. Just one Husky who appeared in Pac-12 play last year returns as a transfer portal haul led by USU star Great Osobor aims to turn the program back into a true winner.

The question is where does Washington fit in with the rest of the conference? The Big Ten has been almost as big of a non-winner in men’s basketball as the Pac-12 with their last national title coming in 1999-2000 when Michigan State under Tom Izzo got it done. Technically, B1G member Maryland won the title a few years later but they were in the ACC at the time. Purdue made it to the title game last season but fell short as Ohio State and Michigan have done in the last few decades as well.

In order to provide context for how Washington may fare, I turned to my model/projections system. First created during the great fire/keep Lorenzo Romar debate of the mid 2010’s, the model looks at years of college experience, recruiting rankings, and prior year’s performance to give each team a talent rating. If a coach does better than expected given his team’s talent rating then he overachieved and gets a positive coaching grade. If he does worse then he underachieved and gets a negative coaching grade.

When it comes to projections I take the totality of a coach’s work and adjust each team a little up or down based on their coach’s grade. This year I changed things up a little bit and chose to make a few updates. I weighted more recent years more heavily since the sport has changes so rapidly over the last half decade. I also no longer look further than 10 years back for coaches who have been at the high major level for that long. Tom Izzo won a national title 24 years ago and that may help him in recruiting a little but it’s hard to say that’s relevant to next year’s Michigan State team in comparison to turning a preseason top-5 squad into a #9 seed.

For each team below I included 3 standard elements (beside their overall B1G ranking). The projected adjusted Efficiency Margin is a marker of how many points per 100 possessions better a team is than the average D1 team and can be found at Kenpom.com. That’s what I use as the ultimate indicator of a team’s performance. The coaching info shows the head coach’s coaching grade along with their national rank among high major coaches. I only include seasons for which that head coach was at a high major (former football Power 5 plus Big East) school. The more years of experience, the more heavily I factor in the coaching grade. And finally the 5 highest players on the roster in my model’s accounting. If multiple players play the same position then it may not correlate to the 5 likely starters.

18. Penn State Nittany Lions

Projected Adjusted Efficiency Margin: +11.02 (+10.49 last year)

Coaching Info: Mike Rhoades -6.67 (75th)

5 Highest Rated Players: 6’1 G Ace Baldwin (14.2 pts, 6.0 ast), 6’8 F Puff Johnson (7.3 pts, 3.1 reb), 6’5 G D’Marco Dunn (6.8 pts, 36.6% 3pt), 6’8 F Zach Hicks (8.4 pts, 3.9 reb), 6’6 G Nick Kern (8.7 pts, 3.9 reb)

Mike Rhoades came over as head coach before last season with Penn State coming off their first NCAA tournament appearance in 11 years. That was a little misleading since Penn State was projected to be a #6 seed in 2020 before the tournament was cancelled amid the pandemic. They also won the NIT in 2018 after failing to earn an at large bid thanks to a sub-300 non-conference strength of schedule. Still, it’s safe to say that PSU basketball has been one of the bottom feeders in the Big Ten over the last decade.

It was a complete rebuild for Rhoades as Penn State was 353rd in the country in minutes continuity last year. Eight transfers joined the team including a pair of starters that Rhoades brought with him from VCU. This season will be much more about internal development as Penn State brings back 5 of their top 7 scorers and should be one of the national leaders in continuity.

The star will be Ace Baldwin who won B1G Defensive Player of the Year and finished 3rd in the B1G in assists per game but only made 38% of his shots from the field. There are a slew of productive 6’6 to 6’8 forwards but the center spot is a bit of an unknown. Gone is Qudus Wahab who led the team in rebounds and blocks and there’s not a clear replacement. Incoming freshman (and former O’Dea star) Miles Goodman will be one of only two players on the roster taller than 6’8.

There’s a good shot that my model is underestimating Penn State. My model expected too much of last year’s squad given it was almost all transfers and that hurt Rhoades’ coaching grade for this year when he’s instead bringing everyone back. I’d bet the over on Penn State given what my model spit out but a tournament berth is still a major stretch even so.

17. Minnesota Golden Gophers

Projected Adjusted Efficiency Margin: +13.01 (+10.39 last year)

Coaching Info: Ben Johnson -2.95 (63rd)

5 Highest Rated Players: 6’11 F Dawson Garcia (17.6 pts, 6.7 reb), 6’2 G Mike Mitchell (10.2 pts, 39.9% 3pt), 6’2 G Lu’Cye Patterson (Charlotte- 14.6 pts, 3.4 reb), 6’8 C Frank Mitchell (Canisius- 12.1 pts, 11.6 reb), 6’6 G Femi Odukale (New Mexico St- 10.7 pts, 6.4 reb)

It looked like Ben Johnson may have been on the fast track to getting fired given that Minnesota went a combined 6-33 in B1G play over his first 2 seasons. He pulled out of the spiral though this past season and they finished a very respectable 19-15 (9-11) in year three. The good news is that Johnson was able to retain star forward and former UNC transfer Dawson Garcia who was 6th in the Big Ten in scoring last season and is the leading returning scorer in the conference. The bad news is that three other starters left either to the portal or the NBA.

Minnesota did what they could do replace those pieces in the portal. There are five new players who figure to factor into the rotation. Frank Mitchell averaged a double double at Canisius last season while Lu’Cye Patterson averaged nearly 15 points per game for Charlotte. Husky fans are familiar with Oregon transfer guard Brennan Rigsby who will help solidify the guard rotation. It’s not a terrible roster but there are no terrible rosters in this conference at the moment so someone has to finish near the bottom.

16. Illinois Fighting Illini

Projected Adjusted Efficiency Margin: +13.24 (+24.53 last year)

Coaching Info: Brad Underwood +4.32 (17th)

5 Highest Rated Players: 6’2 G Kylan Boswell (Arizona- 9.6 pts, 3.6 ast), 6’7 F Tre White (Louisville- 12.3 pts, 5.9 reb), 6’6 G Ty Rodgers (6.2 pts, 5.3 reb), 6’10 F Carey Booth (Notre Dame– 6.4 pts, 4.3 reb), 6’9 F Ben Humrichous (Evansville- 14.7 pts, 41.4% 3pt)

If this is actually where Illinois finishes next season then it would have to be considered a massive disappointment. The Illini have won at least 11 conference games in each of the past 5 seasons and have been a top-4 NCAA seed in 3 of those years. Last season was the peak under Brad Underwood in terms of postseason performance as Illinois made it all the way to the Elite Eight.

But gone are TJ Shannon, Marcus Domask, Coleman Hawkins*, Quincy Guerrier, Dain Dainja, and Luke Goode. That’s 5 of Illinois’ 6 highest scorers from last year’s team all departing. Philosophical differences saw one of Illinois’ top assistants leave as Underwood is going all in on the portal over development of freshmen. That helped the Huskies who wound up with former Illinois commit Jase Butler.

If you squint your eyes you can see how it might work without further additions. Kylan Boswell seemed like an obvious breakout candidate before last year at Arizona and could easily turn into a star now that he’s back home and “the guy”. Tre White was a great role player at USC and put up good numbers for Louisville last year. A couple of their power forwards can step out and knock down a 3-point shot. But there’s no one on the roster who has averaged more than 9 ppg for a tournament team before so even if Underwood works his magic this still looks like the worst team he has had in a while.

*Illinois’ Coleman Hawkins is one of the few impact players that has a legitimately up in the air draft decision to make by the deadline on Wednesday. But even if he does return to college, Coleman is in the transfer portal and seems unlikely to be back in Champaign.

15. Nebraska Cornhuskers

Projected Adjusted Efficiency Margin: +13.36 (+17.55 last year)

Coaching Info: Fred Hoiberg -0.5 (56th)

5 Highest Rated Players: 6’6 F Juwan Gary (11.6 pts, 6.1 reb), 6’7 F Brice Williams (13.4 pts, 5.5 reb), 6’8 G Gavin Griffiths (Rutgers– 5.8 pts, 2.2 reb), 7’1 C Braxton Meah (Washington- 5.3 pts, 5.3 reb), 6’10 F Andrew Morgan (North Dakota State- 12.9 pts, 5.0 reb)

Hoiberg entered last season on the hot seat after 4 consecutive season without finishing over .500 following his return to college from a failed NBA tenure. It all finally came together for him though in the nick of time as Nebraska made the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2014 (and only the second time since 1998). The offense hummed to life led by shooting sensation Keisei Tominaga (15.1 pts, 37.6% 3pt) and four different players finished in double figures.

Tominaga is gone but an equally big blow came last month when it was announced that starting center Rienk Mast (12.3 pts, 7.5 reb) would miss this upcoming season due to an injury. Enter Husky transfer Braxton Meah who will look to return to full health and anchor the Nebraska defense. The frontcourt should be fine but the starting guards right now project to be Utah transfer Rollie Worster and Wisconsin transfer Connor Essigian. Both parts of that duo missed time due to injury last year and neither are even average 3-point shooters. This looks like a team that could be back in the tourney with one really great guard but I’m not sure he’s on the roster.

14. Maryland Terrapins

Projected Adjusted Efficiency Margin: +13.82 (+12.51 last year)

Coaching Info: Kevin Willard +0.11 (44th)

5 Highest Rated Players: 6’9 F Julian Reese (13.7 pts, 9.5 reb), 6’5 G Selton Miguel (South Florida- 14.7 pts, 3.2 reb), 6’5 G DeShawn Harris-Smith (7.3 pts, 4.3 reb), 6’10 C Derik Queen (5* Freshman), 6’1 G Ja’Kobi Gillespie (Belmont- 17.2 pts, 4.2 ast)

My model has Kevin Willard as almost an exactly average high major coach and that seems justified. Over the past 11 seasons he has finished below .500 only one time and that was last season when the Terrapins fell to 16-17 (7-13). Between Maryland and Seton Hall he has been to the NCAA tournament 6 of the past 9 seasons but has only once been better than a #8 seed. To be fair, Willard was projected to be a #3 seed entering the Big East tournament in 2020 when it was cancelled. But you generally know what your ceiling and floor are if Willard is your coach.

Last season was a bit of a disaster as it was the Jahmir Young show and that didn’t result in wins. Young averaged 20.4 points and 4.2 assists per game but wasn’t efficient enough to justify such high usage rates (top-35 nationally). Now with Young gone, Maryland returns their 2nd and 3rd leading scorer while also adding a pair of mid-major guards who shot 38%+ from three-point range. They’re also bringing in a 5-star freshman center in Derik Queen. The makings are there for a really good starting lineup but the depth behind that group is still suspect.

13. Wisconsin Badgers

Projected Adjusted Efficiency Margin: +14.64 (+20.06 last year)

Coaching Info: Greg Gard +8.20 (7th)

5 Highest Rated Players: 7’0 C Steven Crowl (11.2 pts, 7.3 reb), 6’4 G Max Klesmit (9.9 pts, 39.8% 3pt), 6’4 G John Blackwell (8.0 pts, 45.5% 3pt), 6’3 G Camren Hunter (Central Arkansas- 16.9 pts, 5.0 reb), 6’9 F Markus Ilver (1.1 pts, 1.3 reb)

Greg Gard has consistently been one of the most overachieving coaches at the high major level. In 9 seasons at Wisconsin he has has only missed 2 NCAA tournaments and the Badgers have had five top-25 KenPom finishes during that span including last year. Wisconsin fans though have gotten a little tired of the lack of postseason success as they haven’t been to a Sweet 16 since 2017 despite being a consistently good team that always takes care of the ball; but also always plays at a glacially slow pace.

This year Wisconsin will have to replace their leading scorer AJ Storr (16.8 ppg) who transferred to Kansas as well as their leading passer Chucky Hepburn (9.2 pts, 3.9 ast) who transferred to Louisville. That’s not great but the cupboard isn’t bare. Wisconsin returns three major contributors who all shot at least 40% from 3-point range last season so the spacing has a chance to be elite. Camren Hunter was an elite low major do-everything guard and he’ll need to make a seamless transition if Wisconsin to finish in the top half of the B1G this year.

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We’ll be back on Wednesday with teams 7 through 12.