Bills given favorable odds to sign former NFL Offensive Player of the Year

What moves can be made to help remedy a revamped receiving corps stocked with talented, but generally unproven pass catchers? 

Sign the player who has twice led the NFL in receptions, of course.

That’s at least the solution deemed feasible by oddsmakers, as BetOnline has given the Buffalo Bills strong odds to sign veteran wide receiver Michael Thomas. The Bills currently have the league’s second-best odds to sign the two-time All-Pro at +500, behind only the Dallas Cowboys at +300.

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The potential signing makes some semblance of sense from a 30,000-foot view. Buffalo revamped its receiving corps in the 2024 offseason, parting ways with Gabriel Davis and perennial Pro Bowler Stefon Diggs before supplementing the room with unproven options who, while objectively skilled, offer little in the way of demonstrated professional production. Third-year contributor Khalil Shakir, free agent signing Curtis Samuel, and second-round draft pick Keon Coleman figure to lead the way in the receiving corps, and while all three are, again, talented, none of them are proven as primary targets.

Introducing Thomas into the mix would give the Bills a proven target-eater who would, in theory, serve as a reliable option for quarterback Josh Allen. The wideout has caught 565 passes for 6,569 yards and 36 touchdowns throughout his decorated professional career, taking home NFL Offensive Player of the Year honors in 2019 thanks to his gaudy 1,725 receiving yard season.

It’s a theoretical match made in heaven. Buffalo needs proven pass catchers to play with its otherworldly quarterback. A three-time Pro Bowler is available as a summer free agent. It seems like a no-brainer.

It only takes a smidge of critical thinking before one starts to see the cracks in the plan. Thomas, though objectively one of the most productive wide receivers of his generation, is 31 years of age with a well-documented recent injury history that’s a massive cause for concern. He’s been limited to just 20 games over the past four seasons due to various lower-body injuries, namely a nagging ankle injury that caused him to miss the entire 2021 campaign.

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And even momentarily ignoring the health concerns, Thomas has looked like a shadow of his former self when available over the past two seasons. He’s caught just 52 passes for 619 yards over the past two campaigns; there are obviously several circumstances that factor into this—the New Orleans Saints haven’t necessarily been a poster child of offensive competency over the past few years—but Thomas objectively has not been nearly as productive as he once was.

One also needs to remember that Buffalo’s offseason moves at wide receiver were done with intent. The team has a clear plan in place—moving on from Diggs signaled not only a desire to get younger at the position, but also an aspiration to take a more egalitarian approach to aerial production as opposed to funneling the offense through one target. This appears to be what the team is set to do with Shakir, Samuel, Coleman, and second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid; signing a 31-year-old who was averaging roughly 150 targets per season in his prime directly opposes the team’s current strategy.

Thomas wouldn’t be a bad low-risk signing if he were willing to take a team-friendly ‘prove-it’ deal, but the Bills will likely be just fine without him. Buffalo has talent throughout its receiving corps and its offense is helmed by one of the league’s best signal-callers—there’s no real need for a 31-year-old with a history of ankle injuries.

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