Black Caps great’s fears for future of test cricket as T20 surges

Black Caps great Chris Cairns has raised concerns over the future of test cricket, given the prevalence of the shortest format of the game – Twenty20.

Since 2008, when the Indian Premier League (IPL) exploded onto TV screens around the globe courtesy of former Black Caps captain Brendon McCullum, cricket has faced an existential question as to where the future of the game lies.

In one corner, test cricket, the purest form of the game with more than 100 years worth of tradition. In the other, T20, the new and exciting format that draws in big crowds, and advertising dollars.

Now, 16 years on, cricket has reached an impasse where the franchise circuit is having a major say on the way the international game is played.

All over the world, players are increasingly opting to chase the windfall of the shorter game, rather than play test cricket, even with the invention of the World Test Championship in 2019.

In New Zealand, Trent Boult opted out of his central contract in 2022 to chase T20 opportunities, and has not played a test since.

Martin Guptill and Jimmy Neesham have also done the same, while Colin de Grandhomme retired from internationals altogether to take up a contract with the Adelaide Strikers in the Big Bash.

For Cairns, who himself would have been the ideal T20 player had he been born 10 years later, test cricket – and to an extent international cricket – can no longer compete with the finances franchise leagues have to offer.

“If somebody is earning significant amounts of money, contract-wise, in the IPL, why would they jeopardise that security, that future to injure themselves bowling 30 or 40 overs in a test match?” Cairns asked Newstalk ZB’s Jason Pine.

“I just pose these points and these questions because, for me, it seems like a logical evolution of where this thing goes.

“Somebody’s not going to injure themselves playing test cricket when there’s a significant contract on offer playing T20 cricket.

“You can’t blame the players for that, at all. They need to look after themselves and their families.

“The demands of test cricket are the ultimate in our sport. But, again, the contracts and what’s on offer will dictate where players go.

Many have already predicted a landscape that sees cricket move away from its traditional country before club model, and instead to one seen in most sports where the inverse is true.

In the USA, leagues like the NBA, NFL and MLB take complete precedence over any competition from around the world, while European football has been battling the financial might of England’s Premier League since the early 90s.

For Cairns, the IPL will serve the same function in cricket.

Elsewhere, every country except New Zealand operates its own franchise competition, ranging from the likes of the Big Bash in Australia, England’s “The Hundred” competition, and even in the likes of the United Arab Emirate and United States.

And with the financial success these competitions bring, all trends point in one direction.

“Over the next five to 10 years, cricket’s going to transition – I think – quite significantly,” Cairns continued.

“Cricket could end up like soccer, like football. The season in India will get bigger because of the financial windfall and benefits that occur off the back of that product.

“It’s a great brand, it’s a great competition. That will get bigger and stronger.

“If you’ve got one or two more leagues around that, guys will be making significant income.

“What will occur? You’ll have windows for World Cups, windows for international matches. But primarily, cricket will become a domestic-oriented or dominated game around the world, much like soccer does.”

In 2022, the IPL’s most recent TV rights deal netted $9.75 billion, as the league added two further teams and an expanded calendar.

That deal runs through to the end of the 2027 season, and all signs point to an even greater figure up for grabs in the next negotiation.

As and when that happens, it is highly likely that more teams, and more matches will be added into the equation, and eat further into a window already carved out of the international game.

This year, as the US and West Indies host the T20 World Cup, the IPL season concluded just days before the start of the tournament.

That saw the Black Caps head to the Caribbean without the possibility to play any warm-up fixtures, as players were afforded the chance to travel home and spend time with their families instead of any preparation.

As a result, New Zealand has been knocked out of the competition after just two matches, following defeats to Afghanistan and the West Indies.

Boult has already confirmed this T20 World Cup will be his last, and other Black Caps could follow.

And after this generation of New Zealand cricketers can easily be held up as the best to ever don the black cap, Cairns can see a world where T20 is the only form of the game.

“I’m a huge test cricket fan,” Cairns added. “But the sport comes down to what the fans want, and what the public want.

“If that’s T20 cricket, well then that’s where the investment goes. That’s just a fact of life.

“I don’t think we need to worry in the short-term. But in a generation, we could well see the demise of it.”

Alex Powell is an online sports editor for the NZ Herald. He has been a sports journalist since 2016, and previously worked for both Newshub and 1News.