Bold Predictions for Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics Game 5 NBA Finals Matchup

The Dallas Mavericks staved off elimination on Friday, blowing out the Boston Celtics, 122-84.

But there’s still a lot of work for them to do to get back into this series. Throughout NBA history, the 156 teams that went up 3-0 have never lost a series.

And Game 5 being in Boston makes it tough to imagine another result like Friday’s. Right now, the Celtics are 6.5-point favorites for Game 5.

Whether or not they cover that spread, how they will (or won’t) get there and what the final result will be are explored in the predictions below.

Boston’s injury reporting for Kristaps Porziņģis has been fairly coy. He missed Game 3, but his coach told reporters just before Game 4 that was technically available, but with a catch.

Joe Mazzulla said Porziņģis would “only be used in specific instances, if necessary.” That sounds like the team doesn’t want to risk further injury to his dislocated Posterior Tibialis (or some other body part, due to overcompensation for the ankle), unless it’s in a desperate situation.

Being up 3-1, with Game 5 at home, doesn’t qualify as desperate. So, expect the Celtics to continue slow-playing KP’s return.

It’d obviously be nice for Boston to have his rim protection and jump shooting back. It was missed in the Game 4 blowout, but the Celtics have also demonstrated they can win without the big man throughout this campaign.

On top of winning Game 3 of this series, Boston is plus-10.9 points per 100 possessions when Porziņģis has been off the floor this regular and postseason.

Prior to the Finals, we predicted that Dereck Lively II’s minutes would swell over the course of the series, and that’s starting to play out.

He averaged 18.8 minutes in Games 1 and 2 and was up to 26.2 in Games 3 and 4. That’s with the regulars being pulled long before the final buzzer in Friday’s game, too.

Expect the rookie’s playing time to continue to climb in Game 5. It seems increasingly clear that coach Jason Kidd trusts him over the rest of Dallas’ bigs, and it’s not hard to see why.

Lively has been absolutely relentless on the offensive glass all postseason. He makes solid decisions as a passer when his rolls don’t immediately lead to dunks. And he’s not a liability when caught defending guards or wings outside.

All of that has led to postseason averages of 8.2 points, 7.6 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 1.0 blocks in just 21.9 minutes, as well as a double-double in 22 minutes of Game 4.

Back in Boston, Kidd is going to rely on Lively even more. He’ll play close to 30 minutes and reach double-figures in both scoring and rebounding again.

Jayson Tatum is posting strong playoff averages of 24.7 points, 9.8 rebounds and 6.0 assists, but he’s yet to find his shot and is struggling to take care of the ball.

His 50.7 two-point percentage and 29.0 three-point percentage are both well below his regular-season marks. And in the Finals alone, he’s turned it over 14 times in just four games.

After nearly two months of playing slightly below his standards, it’s starting to feel like a breakout has to be on the way. Being in Boston should make that more likely, too.

Tatum is already tied for 24th all time in career playoff 30-point games. His 29 such performances make up over a quarter of his total postseason games.

In Game 5, he’ll knock down a few threes, get in a rhythm and bring that total to an even 30.

Prior to this series against Boston, Luka Dončić had a career postseason average of 8.2 assists per game. Outside of a Game 2, the Celtics have mostly bottled up that aspect of Luka’s game.

During the Finals, he’s at 5.8 assists, but another big passing game is on the way.

The Mavericks now have two games in the unfriendly confines of the TD Garden under their belts and a nice little confidence boost from Game 4.

With both of those elements in place, the role players will be a little more comfortable with catch-and-shoot opportunities.

And that potentially means 10-plus dimes for Luka. From there, he has to get to 10 boards to complete a triple-double, and with Porziņģis out, more of those could be available too.

Three of the four slides above are positive, which suggests a high-scoring game. So consider this a sub-prediction that we’ll finally get a shootout in this series.

So far, we’ve had two pretty tight games in the middle of the series, bookended by a pair of blowouts. And the average combined points per game for both teams is just 202.5.

In the regular season, the league-wide number for all games was 228.4.

With both teams playing a bit looser, Game 5 will be closer to that bigger total, and Boston will be able to cover the 6.5-point spread, despite the game feeling relatively close throughout.

Once all those boxes are checked, Tatum will be named Finals MVP.

Jrue Holiday seemed like the leader in that clubhouse after Game 2. Jaylen Brown appeared on track for the honor after Game 3. Now four games into the series, Tatum leads the Celtics in both rebounds and assists per game, and he’s only 0.8 points behind Jaylen Brown in scoring.

A 30-plus-point performance, with Brown being closer to 20, will put Tatum atop that column, too.

At that point, it’ll be tough to deny Tatum Finals MVP.