Bruce Feldman’s college football win total best bets

Many important things are obviously going on off the field in college athletics, but with spring football in the rearview mirror and many transfers set to report to their new programs in the coming weeks, this is a good time to peek in on the upcoming season. The sportsbooks have released their team win totals, an ideal barometer to get into expectations for each program. Here are the five most tempting picks I see to go over and the ones that will end up on the under.

Best bets to go over

Georgia — 10.5 wins: This is a program that has gone 24-0 in SEC regular-season play the past three years and is 42-2. The Dawgs had their 29-game win streak snapped by Alabama in the SEC title game last year, but they’re still loaded, and now Nick Saban is working in TV. Georgia returns 16 starters and has arguably the top quarterback in the country in Carson Beck, a bright, accurate triggerman with some talented new skill guys around him in wide receiver Colbie Young and running back Trevor Etienne to go with a seasoned O-line. Nazir Stackhouse and Mykel Williams headline a gifted defensive front, and safety Malaki Starks anchors the secondary. The schedule isn’t easy. The Bulldogs open with Clemson in Atlanta and have trips to Tuscaloosa, Austin and Oxford, but the hunch is Kirby Smart will have this team ready for 2024, and I just don’t see Georgia losing more than once this fall.

Florida State — 9.5 wins: The Seminoles rolled through the ACC (and LSU) to go 13-0 before getting snubbed by the College Football Playoff selection committee last December. Only eight starters are back, but the word out of Tallahassee is they have reloaded and should be nasty again on defense. Cornerback Azareye’h Thomas, a 6-foot-1 ball hawk, had a fantastic spring and should lead one of the better secondaries in college football. Patrick Payton has continued to blossom into a terrific defensive end, and Marvin Jones Jr. is expected to have a monster year on the other side. Darrell Jackson will give the Noles a huge presence in the middle of their defense. QB DJ Uiagalelei improved as a passer and processor at Oregon State and should be a dual threat with his ability to run through tackles in the run game. Bama transfer Malik Benson and Indiana transfer Jaylin Lucas add playmaking skills. They get Clemson at home and have trips to Miami and Notre Dame, but assuming they don’t drop all three — there’s a better chance they’ll win at least two of those three — they’ll be in great shape to reach double digits.

Colorado — 5.5 wins: Deion Sanders took over a one-win team last year and got it to 4-8. I’m expecting another big jump or at least bowl eligibility. The Buffaloes have one of the best QBs in the country in Shedeur Sanders, a tough, accurate quarterback, and the team has good skill talent, led by Travis Hunter. The Buffs will miss Dylan Edwards, but Ohio State transfer Dallan Hayden, a speedster who ran for 553 yards and five TDs last year, should be a good fit. Better still, CU has upgraded its O-line, which was dreadful last year. The Buffaloes have also made big strides in revamping their defensive front, led by Pitt transfer Dayon Hayes (10.5 TFLs in 2023). CU has a tricky opener against FCS powerhouse North Dakota State, then has to go to Nebraska, but with the younger Sanders running the offense, this group should be improved enough to get to at least six wins.

Iowa State — 7.5 wins: The Cyclones had a challenging setup for 2023, as ISU and rival Iowa dealt with a gambling investigation. Matt Campbell’s program ended up being one of the youngest teams in Power 5 football, with freshmen playing prominent roles. After opening 1-2, which included a 10-7 loss at Ohio, the Cyclones got things together, finishing 7-6 and 6-3 in Big 12 play. Almost all the key pieces are back and have a lot more seasoning. Rocco Becht, now a sophomore, is a budding star. He threw 23 touchdowns and just eight interceptions in 2023. He has a terrific WR group led by Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins. Abu Sama III, a dynamic RB, ran wild against K-State for almost 300 yards as a true freshman. The Cyclones also have five O-linemen back, each with starting experience. Middle linebacker Jack Sadowsky and safety Beau Freyler give ISU toughness and savvy in the middle of the defense. The tough games: at Iowa, at WVU, at Kansas, at Utah and then K-State in the season finale. Don’t be surprised if Campbell has a Top 25 team this year. These guys might just be good enough to sneak into the CFP if Becht plays as well as some folks inside the program believe he can.

GO DEEPER

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Memphis — 8.5 wins: Ryan Silverfield’s group is an AAC team that could be CFP caliber. The Tigers finished the year beating ISU in the Liberty Bowl en route to a 10-win season. Better still, Memphis kept its big stars, which is no small feat these days outside the Power 5. QB Seth Henigan is super smart, moves well and doesn’t make mistakes, and WR Roc Taylor is a 6-3, 225-pound Freak who is a match-up nightmare for defenses. RB Sutton Smith has game-breaking speed and will remind folks of former Tigers star Kenny Gainwell. These guys are dangerous. They have to go to FSU in September, but beyond that, the Tigers should be more talented than everyone they face, although games at USF and Tulane will not be easy.

Best bets to go under

Road games for Cal in 2024 include Auburn, Florida State, Pitt, Wake Forest and SMU. (Petre Thomas / USA Today)

Cal — 5.5 wins: The Bears finished 2023 on a good note and kept stud RB Jaydn Ott, but getting bowl-eligible looks like a steep climb as they enter their new existence in the ACC. They open at UC Davis, which should get 2024 off to a good start. After that, it’s not ideal. They go across the country to Auburn, then return home to play San Diego State, then go back to the opposite corner of the country the next week to visit FSU. They get Miami at home before a third trip to the Eastern Time Zone to play at Pitt. Later in the season, they have to travel to Wake Forest. Other seemingly winnable games include Oregon State and Stanford.

UCLA — 5.5 wins: The one team that might have an even less forgiving travel schedule than the Bears is the Bruins. They open at Hawaii, which they should beat, but after facing Indiana they have a brutal three-game swing at LSU, home against Oregon and then at Penn State. After that, they host Minnesota before traveling further back east to play at Rutgers. Later, there’s a trip to Nebraska, and six days after that, Iowa visits. The good news is UCLA has a good QB in Ethan Garbers; when he was healthy last year, the Bruins were good. But much of the defense needs to be rebuilt. Laiatu Latu and several others left for the NFL, and a couple of their most gifted defensive backs left to go across town to USC with defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn.

Notre Dame — 10.5 wins: The Irish have a decent shot of being a Playoff team this year, but I was surprised to see this number quite as high as it was. Marcus Freeman upgraded his staff in some key spots, most notably with offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock. I like ND’s defense, especially on the D-line and in the secondary. QB Riley Leonard, the Duke transfer, is a tough kid and terrific runner, but opening at Texas A&M against the coach who probably knows him best, Mike Elko, his old head coach with the Blue Devils, seems less than ideal. The Irish also get visits from Louisville and FSU (both are talented and well-coached) and then go to USC, which the Irish embarrassed last season. I suspect ND will split those four games.

GO DEEPER

Take it from the coaches who worked beside him, Mike Denbrock is easy to bet on

Washington — 7.5 wins: Yes, UDub just played for the national title and went 25-3 in the past two seasons, but Michael Penix Jr. and almost every other starter from those teams are gone. The entire O-line will be new. Jedd Fisch did an amazing job in his three years at Arizona, but he walks into a big rebuild here. Except for the linebacker spot, the Huskies will be breaking in guys with little experience. On the plus side, they have a manageable schedule in the first month: no road games, and it’s Weber State, EMU, Washington State and Northwestern. At worst, they should be 3-1, and 4-0 seems realistic. After that, it gets much harder. They go to Rutgers, then host Michigan, visit Iowa, have a bye week, visit Indiana, play USC and visit Penn State before closing with UCLA in Seattle and visiting Oregon. Given all the roster turnover, I suspect getting past six wins will be a challenge.

USC — 7.5 wins: Lincoln Riley’s team went 7-5 last year, and that was with Caleb Williams. Can the Trojans be much better without him? Miller Moss looked good in the bowl game, but the O-line still seems underwhelming, and it might seem like more of an issue without Williams’ wheels. Lynn will try to fix the defense, but it seems like he had better talent to work with at UCLA than he will this year. A lot of games feel like they could be toss-ups once you get past a rough first month. Opening with LSU in Las Vegas feels dicey. The Tigers are still really talented. Toward the end of September, USC visits Michigan and then plays Wisconsin. It seems like a stretch to expect better than 2-2, and that’s when the tone could be set for a program still trying to figure out its identity. The good news is the Trojans don’t have to play Ohio State or Oregon, but they still play Penn State and Notre Dame and have some long trips to Minnesota and Maryland, with a closer test at Washington.

(Top photo of Florida State’s Jaylin Lucas: Melina Myers / USA Today)