Celtics vs. Mavericks Game 3 prediction: NBA Finals odds, picks, best bets

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The Dallas Mavericks’ offensive woes continue after back-to-back sub-26% shooting nights from behind the arc.

Game 2 was well within reach for the Mavs, considering Boston only shot 10-for-39 from deep. However, they could not sneak out a win, committing 15 turnovers and missing eight free throws on their way to a seven-point road loss.

Now, Dallas faces an 0-2 hole heading back home, and Boston has been an exceptional road team this postseason, winning all six of its games away from TD Garden.

Can the Mavericks hand the C’s their first postseason loss in Game 3, or will Boston all but shut the door on Dallas’s championship hopes?

Celtics vs. Mavericks Game 3 odds

• Spread: Celtics +1.5 (-105), Mavericks -1.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: Celtics +105, Mavericks -130
• Total: Over 215.5 (-110), Under 215.5 (-110)

Odds via BetMGM

Celtics vs. Mavericks Game 3 prediction

Dallas could have stolen Game 2 if it had shot the ball better. But, again, this postseason’s most clutch team found a way to hold off the Mavs.

Dallas players not named Luka Doncic have combined to hit just five 3-pointers through the first two games. Five. Kyrie Irving is 0-for-8 mark from behind the arc.

Simply put, the lights have been too bright for the Mavericks, and no one besides Doncic has stepped up meaningfully. If the Mavs can’t steal a win when Boston shoots a putrid 25.9% from 3-point land, it is challenging to see where they might be able to log one.

What makes the Celtics so dangerous — and what has been perfectly exemplified in this series so far — is how many players they have who can take over a game offensively.

The C’s key offensive player in the first half of Game 1 was Kristaps Porzingis, who ended up with 20 points in his first game back since injuring his calf. Meanwhile, Jrue Holiday led the team in scoring (26 points) in Game 2. Those two players are their third or fourth-best offensive options on any night. Jayson Tatum has not even registered a 20-point game in the Finals yet.

Unlike Boston, Dallas has two players (Irving and Doncic) who can realistically lead the team in scoring in a playoff game, and Irving has been terrible.

While Irving could turn things around in Game 3, Boston has three players who can defend him as well as anyone else in the league. He might score, but clean looks will continue to be tough to come by.

Celtics vs. Mavericks Game 3 pick

Boston has also played better on the road (6-0) in the playoffs than at home (8-2), boasting a +11.1 net rating in those games on a team shooting split of 47/35/80. Conversely, Dallas holds a 5-3 record in front of its fans, a concerning home record for an NBA Finals squad.

Dallas could always experience positive shooting regression in Game 3, but our confidence is not with this team right now. The Mavs’ offense has been shut down and their defense has way too many holes for a team that can spread defenders out and expose weaker opponents in isolation.

We’ll give a slight lean to Boston as road dogs.

Pick: Celtics moneyline (+110 at DraftKings)