D.C. unveils rosy stadium analysis amid pursuit of NFL’s Commanders

“Hosting an NFL franchise is a once in a generation placemaking opportunity,” the report said.

But some economists and at least one elected official who reviewed the report were skeptical of some of its findings.

The move comes as the administration of Mayor Muriel E. Bowser (D) continues its bid to lure the Washington Commanders from their home in Landover, Md.

The $394,000 “sports study” was announced by Bowser a year ago as city lawmakers debated the merits of an NFL stadium and fielded requests for arena upgrades and improvements from some of the city’s sports franchises, including the Washington Nationals and the Monumental Sports & Entertainment-owned Wizards and Capitals. Jones Lang LaSalle Americas Inc. (JLL) and the Robert Bobb Group were asked two produce two reports, including the economic impact study published Thursday.

But a second report examining ideas for how to finance a new stadium or rehabilitating the current one wasn’t published Thursday. A spokesperson for the Office of the Deputy Mayor for Planning and Economic Development, which oversaw the study, said in a statement that it had no plans to release that analysis.

As D.C. has competed for the Commanders with Maryland and Virginia, Bowser has made it clear that her ideal vision for the federally controlled RFK redevelopment includes a mixed-use development with housing, retail and sports recreation. Thursday’s report examines commercial real estate development and the economic impact that has come from facilities such as Nationals Park, concluding broadly that sports teams and their facilities have had a net positive impact on surrounding neighborhoods, measured by job creation, hotel performance and consumer spending.

The report also notes that 88 percent of the city’s visitors to major arenas and sports venues come from outside the District — suggesting that sports are a strong draw for tourism with the potential to “generate substantial economic benefits for District residents.” The report concludes that facilities nationwide that are integrated into surrounding environments generate more economic activity compared to stand-alone, “island” stadiums that may prioritize parking over economic development.

“When you have sports facilities that are surrounded by other development that attracts people, that attracts office workers, that attracts restaurant-goers, you have a successful development,” Bowser said Thursday morning on the “Sports Junkies” radio show, pointing to developments at Capital Riverfront and Downtown. “That’s the only way that an NFL franchise could also work in D.C. That’s why we spent so much time talking about the revitalization of RFK, not just for football, but using the balance of the 170 acres to produce housing, to produce park space, and to produce other destinations that attract people to a new sports and entertainment district.”

But extensive research shows new sports venues generally don’t fulfill their promise of economic booms. One analysis of 42 years of professional sports teams and facilities found major sports franchises have “no significant impact” on wages, and other studies have found similar results for data on employment and sales. The findings have remained consistent even as the United States approaches another sports stadium boom.

Over the years local governments, sports team owners and other interested parties have sought to convince the public that stadiums are a good investment with studies that promise great economic benefits, Michael Leeds, an economics professor at Temple University, said in an interview last year.

Nathan Jensen, a sports-subsidy expert at the University of Texas at Austin, said the report may overestimate the economic impact of D.C.’s sports facilities. Although the report notes that visitors to D.C.’s sports venues come from outside the city, they also primarily live within the region and could have other reasons to visit D.C. besides sports, he said.

“If anything, given that people have budget constraints, [it’s] likely that this is displacing other spending that would have occurred in the District,” he said.

J.C. Bradbury, an economics professor at Kennesaw State University, declined to discuss specifics of the D.C. study “because I fear going into the details grants some legitimacy to the idea that there is some debate over the economic impact of stadiums.

“If the consultants feel the decades of economic research on the subject is in error, they are free to submit their challenges to peer review,” he said.

Council member Charles Allen (D-Ward 6), who has been long vocal about his opposition for an NFL stadium, said in an interview that he still had questions about an NFL stadium that “would sit dark 90 percent of the time” and also raised doubts about a new stadium’s purported economic impact.

“We got the stadium deal done we were supposed to, which was Capital One Arena — which generates almost 365-day activity. An NFL stadium does not generate economic activity; that’s a no-brainer,” he said. “And any economic activity it’s trying to cite seems to be from the residences and businesses around the stadium, not the stadium itself.”

D.C. still faces some hurdles in Congress to control the site. A bill that would give the District the ability to develop the land — potentially with a new stadium — cleared the House in February but still needs to pass the Senate, and some legislators have threatened to hold it up.

“What’s a shame is right now we have a falling-down stadium surrounded by asphalt in a city that really needs housing and economic development. So we’re going to work with our federal partners to get control,” Bowser said on Thursday’s radio show.

Asked whether the campus is truly suitable for a stadium, Bowser said the plan is to “deliver a truly iconic experience.”

“That’s the type of development that we would support in the District, one that delivers world-class sports,” she said. “We’re not just talking about a potential Super Bowl — we haven’t been able to get the World Cup in the region because we don’t have a sufficient stadium. We weren’t able to get Taylor Swift to come to the region.”