Daily best bets Friday July 12

Lorenzo Musetti v Novak Djokovic

Musetti served this column well the other day, eventually taking down Taylor Fritz in five sets, and there’s no doubt he’s playing some fine tennis.

I pointed out earlier this week that only the best players have managed to beat Musetti on grass in the past couple of years – he comes into this match 12-2 on the surface this season – but now he’s moving up to elite level and he’ll do well to avoid defeat.

On the day Musetti spent three-and-a-half hours in beating Fritz, Djokovic had his feet up after his scheduled quarter-final foe Alex de Minaur withdrew injured, which could be significant here.

The Serb was last seen destroying Holger Rune on Monday night when he again dominated on serve – Djokovic has held in 96% of his service games so far at this tournament.

Musetti kept Fritz at arm’s length with his strong first serve but while the Italian has won 74% points behind it in SW19, Djokovic is up at 83% which helps show the tough nature of the task at hand. For the record, Djokovic also has the edge on second serve points won, albeit by a single percentage point.

I’d give Musetti a greater chance on clay – his one win (in six meetings) over Djokovic came in Monte Carlo last year, while he’s also twice pushed him to a deciding set at the French Open.

But on the faster surfaces, he’s twice suffered straight-sets defeats and the way Djokovic is serving right now, I’m really struggling to see past him making the final.

Djokovic is one of the all-time greats on this surface and I’m sure he’ll have his backers to win 3-0 at odds-against.

Yet as well as he played the other day against Rune, I remain wary that his overall level hasn’t been consistently high this season – remember he’s yet to win a title in 2024.

For those looking to oppose him in some way, over 35.5 games in the match looks to have some potential.

That’s landed in all of Musetti’s matches so far at this tournament, plus two of Djokovic’s four.

The Italian is clearly full of confidence and while I don’t see him winning, he could well snatch a set and, if he does, this should land.

Daniil Medvedev v Carlos Alcaraz

Alcaraz leads this rivalry 4-2 but it’s one I’ve struggled to get a hold on – and, frankly, so have the players.

It’s been very up-and-down with neither player having won three on the spin.

I saw Alcaraz tear Medvedev’s game apart in last year’s semi-finals here and having witnessed that demolition job, I certainly didn’t expect Medvedev to turn things around, pretty comprehensively it has to be said, in their US Open rematch just a few weeks later.

A feature of Medvedev’s loss here 12 months ago was the amount of territory he conceded by returning from so deep.

It’s a position we’ve often seen him take up but it certainly didn’t work that day with Alcaraz having the time on the serve-plus-one shot to take control of rallies.

It was notable that the Russian was much further up the court during Tuesday’s quarter-final victory over Jannik Sinner, albeit the top seed was clearly under the weather to some extent.

He’ll surely be fairly aggressive again in terms of return position in this one and will look to throw in his eclectic mixture of shots in a bid to disrupt the Spaniard’s game.

As Alcaraz’s coach, Juan Carlos Ferrero, said the other day: “I’m sure he’ll try something different from last year.”

Alcaraz hasn’t been bullying his way through the draw so could be vulnerable, although whenever he’s found trouble, he’s been able to respond.

Frances Tiafoe took him the distance in round three and both Ugo Humbert and Tommy Paul caused him problems, each winning a set.

But, as Alcaraz showed in the latter stages of that Paul match, he’s able to figure out solutions and he was the dominant figure at the end of that one.

I love some of the angles he’s able to create and so I’m not convinced Medvedev’s mix-it-up style will overly bother him – I fact, I can see Alcaraz considering it more of a challenge and rising to the occasion with his shot-making skills.

That head-to-head shows where he may well be able to win this contest. Medvedev has won just 43% of points behind his second serve in the series and looks sure to come under serious pressure on that front. Alcaraz’s equivalent number if 51%.

I don’t think it will be easy again but I’m sticking with Alcaraz, who I felt from the start was the most likely champion.

In terms of a bet, ALCARAZ TO WIN AND BOTH PLAYERS TO WIN A SET at 11/8 looks the way to go.

Posted at 1520 BST on 11/07/24

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