Andy Schooler’s match bets delivered a healthy profit at the recent French Open – now he brings you his best bets for the opening day of Wimbledon 2024.
Daily tennis betting tips: Wimbledon
1.5pts Cristian Garin to beat Juncheng Shang at evens (General)
0.5pt Mattia Bellucci to beat Ben Shelton at 5/2 (General)
1pt Alex Bolt to beat Casper Ruud at 3/1 (bet365, William Hill, 888sport)
1pt over 12.5 games in the first set of Matteo Berrettini v Marton Fucsovics at 11/4 (bet365)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Cristian Garin v Juncheng Shang
The bookies have this as pretty much a 50-50 match but I make Garin the clear favourite.
He’s just come through qualifying, losing just one set in the process, and has a strong track record in the main draw at the All England Club.
The Chilean didn’t play last year but in 2022 he reached the quarter-finals, beating Alex de Minaur along the way, and in 2021 he made the last 16, his run only ending when he bumped into a certain Novak Djokovic.
In addition, it’s not long since Garin was making semi-finals on the ATP Tour, doing do in Estoril and Munich on his favoured clay.
Shang has struggled much more. ‘Jerry’ has won just three tour-level matches since leaving Australia in January and a move onto the grass hasn’t changed his fortunes.
Across two Challenger Tour events, he’s gone just 2-2, losing to Britons Jacob Fearnley and Billy Harris, both of whom were ranked outside the top 200.
For me, Garin looks a solid play.
Mattia Bellucci v Ben Shelton
All is not well with the Shelton game – he’s gone 1-3 in his grasscourt warm-up matches, losing to Paul Jubb, a player ranked outside the top 250, in Mallorca on Thursday.
That match saw him concede 18 break points on his serve, supposedly a massive weapon in his game, but one which won him just 65% of first-serve points in that match. The second serve has also been very attackable, winning fewer than 46% of points in three of those four contests.
Bellucci has been operating at a lower level but will bring much more confidence to the court.
He’s just come through qualifying and notched a decent victory over David Goffin in the final round. Prior to that, he enjoyed a run to the semi-finals of the Nottingham Challenger.
Facing this serve will be a different test but I think it’s a good thing that he met Lloyd Harris in French Open qualifying recently – a man whose serve is similarly strong.
I had hoped Bellucci would be a bit bigger than he is and that maybe we’d get a price closer to evens about him winning a set but I’m still prepared to take a small punt on him landing the upset at 5/2.
Alex Bolt v Casper Ruud
Ruud looks another seed who could be vulnerable in round one – he’s often joked in the past about his ability (or lack of it) on this surface and it’s not easy to envisage him not being fully dialled in.
Ruud is a clay man with his priority each season being the French Open – he’s twice been a finalist there and was last seen making this year’s semi-finals in Paris.
He was fully invested in the claycourt campaign but, notably, that’s not really over yet. Ruud will be back at Roland Garros in less than a month’s time for the Olympics where he will be among the favourites to win a medal.
It’s not difficult to argue than an early loss at Wimbledon would boost his chances, getting him straight back to the clay.
He’s gone just 4-7 on grass in his career (none of those matches have been this year) and 2-4 in SW19 where last season he was beaten by British wild card Liam Broady.
Ruud might be able to get away with that poor record were he up against a fellow claycourter but the fact is Bolt is very adept on the grass.
I doubt anyone else in this draw has played 20 matches on the surface in 2024 and he’s won 18 of them, the last three in qualifying last week, an event he only got into with 10 minutes to spare due to a late withdrawal.
After going unbroken in the first two rounds, the Australian saved match point in his final qualifier so must feel like the sporting gods are smiling on him right now.
At 3/1, he looks worth backing to land the upset.
Matteo Berrettini v Marton Fucsovics
As long-term readers will know, I like a tie-break bet, especially on the grass, and I reckon 11/4 is a decent price about there being one in the first set of this match.
I’ve written plenty about Berrettini’s ability on grass in my outright preview and I’d expect him to progress.
The Italian has held serve in 94% of his grasscourt matches in the lead up to this tournament so is sure to be hard to break.
But Fucsovics is no mug on this surface either. He made the quarter-finals in 2021, beating Andrey Rublev and Jannik Sinner, and has a strong enough serve (83% holds on all surfaces this year) to trouble Berrettini, who may need time to get his eye in.
The first set of his warm-up tournaments in Halle and Stuttgart both went to a breaker, as did his first set of Wimbledon 2023.
Posted at 0930 BST on 30/06/24
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