Andy Schooler previews Saturday’s Wimbledon ladies’ singles final between Barbora Krejcikova and Jasmine Paolini.
Barbora Krejcikova v Jasmine Paolini (1400 BST)
It’s a breath of fresh air these days to see someone playing any sport with a smile on their face and it would be wonderful to see Jasmine Paolini emerge as Wimbledon champion on Saturday afternoon.
Yet her emotional side may actually turn out to be her undoing against the more stoic Barbora Krejcikova.
“I will be so nervous,” Paolini admitted when looking ahead to this match following her nail-biting semi-final win over Donna Vekic. “I’m going to be shaking.”
While always wary on putting too much weight on player comments, Paolini is someone you feel is brutally honest, perhaps too honest.
Her comments certainly fit with what we saw in last month’s French Open final when she won only three games against Iga Swiatek.
Available at 66/1 antepost, Paolini also made a shaky start to her semi-final on Thursday, losing the first set 6-2 and being thoroughly outplayed.
Paolini, looking to become the first Italian to win a Wimbledon title, deserves great credit for her fightback in that match and certainly showed a strong mentality in the latter stages when she missed match points at 5-4 and 6-5 before winning the ensuing tie-break.
Still, she comes into this match looking to achieve something she’s never done before – win a Grand Slam title – and that will bring its own mental challenges, as she’s already addressed.
In contrast, Krejcikova – a 225/1 shot when the tournament got under way but now the title favourite – arrives here having already triumphed at this level; she was the French Open champion in 2021.
The Czech has surprised many, not least herself, with her run to this final but appears not to be feeling any pressure, saying she was “enjoying the moment much more than I did in Paris (in 2021)”.
She’s looked largely unfazed on court too. She also started her semi-final poorly, losing her first two service games, but after that dictated with her serve and Elena Rybakina, the player whose serve was supposed to be the dominant force in that match, didn’t have the answers.
Krejcikova also impressed on serve during her quarter-final victory over Jelena Ostapenko and she arrives at the final having won 77% of her service games.
Paolini’s figure is down at 71%, although she does have the better return figures, winning 44% of return games (to Krejcikova’s 36%).
Paolini also has the edge when it comes to points won on second serve (48 to 44%) and that’s an area where the Italian will look to profit.
I’m not sure she’ll get too many chances on Krejcikova’s first delivery (72% points won) so taking opportunities on the weaker second serve will be key.
Vekic may well have got the job done had she maintained the serving standards of the first set against Paolini and I feel that if Krejcikova serves as well as she’s done this week, she’ll likely emerge at the winner.
She’s a best price of 8/11 which looks perfectly backable but there’s a way of getting a bigger price which I think is worth considering.
I haven’t yet mentioned the fact these two have played before with Krejcikova winning 6-2 6-1 in Australian Open qualifying back in 2018.
Neither player was in the top 100 then and both have developed considerably since, so I’m not sure it’s very relevant more than six years on.
Perhaps one takeaway is that Krejcikova out-aced Paolini 7-0 that day and that’s a nod to where I’m going.
Krejcikova has served 0.27 aces per game at this tournament, compared with Paolini’s 0.15.
She’s also well ahead on double faults – 0.42 v 0.15 – and with that second serve likely to come under attack, I’m also happy to side with her on that front.
You can back Krejcikova to win the match and serve the most aces and double faults via bet365’s Bet Builder tool and with Sky Bet’s Price Boost, and that looks a way of adding some value to a bet on the Czech.
Posted at 1630 BST on 12/07/24
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
